Weekend Thread (11/17-19) | Early Deadline #s - Songbirds 5.75-6M Previews, Trolls 2M

[Halberstram]

4 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

Massive copium from MCU fans on Twitter. 

Let them be. They have just began the 5 stages of grief.

[Alexander]

Movie bussiness is clearly shrinking, that's for sure .

[Grand Cine]

11 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This year has been solid for smaller movies, i’m very happy with it honestly.

 

Asteroid City and Priscilla are nearly locked for +25M. 

 

Suzume did +10M and i have a strong feeling the new Miyazaki can pull 30M. 
 

Past Lives, Bottoms and Holdovers will all have 10-15M. 
 

Saltburn seems like a breakout, can try 20-25M. I feel Poor Things with it’s lavish steampunk visuals and strong Oscar buzz can also try 20-30M, even more if it ended with +10 nominations like it’s being predicted. 
 

Zone Of Interest, American Fiction and The Iron Claw all have strong buzz with cinephiles and all should ended up with 10-15M. 
 

Then we have the biggest ones: Air, Killers of the Flower Moon an Napoleon will all ended up with 50-70M. And based on it’s solid presales and Christmas date, Color Purple can be a 70-100M grosser. 
 

Some can argue none of this is really a hit. But just look at the data, pretty much all the smaller awards titles in the past years was a complete disaster, with very few reaching 10M. 
 

This year it seems like we’ll see some with 20-30M, and 12-15 titles surpassing 10M. If we’re being purely logical, it’s not particularly good. But it’s a major improvement and a sign of hope for future years. 
 

Oppenheimer is not a small movie, but being a billion grosser being what it is (it will happen when they inevitably re-released it globally for Oscar) will be the cherry on top.

 I think this year we have a lot of faillures in domestic box office ( The Flash , The Marvels, Indiana Jones, MI7, Haunted Mansion , Shazam 2, Blue Beetle and others) but we have also very good surprises : Sound of Freedom , the Eras Tour, FNAF, Megan and many horror movies in general , and we have two successful super heros movies , Guardians 3 and ATSV and for finish the great hit Mario and the phenomenon Barbenheimer . We could have faillures ( Hello Aquaman 2 ) but we can have also good surprises and hits like Renaissance Movie , Color People, Migration or Wonka

[Veclozy]

7 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

 

It was more so the studio that killed any chance of a connective universe working.  Instead of doing a complete 180 with Josstice League,  they could have made some more minor changes and in my view would have did way more than the $600M that did.. 

 

Even so, Wonder Woman, Suicide Squad and Aquaman were huge hits.  

Yeah but the flops outnumber the hits, BvS killed JL's hype, it flopped on its opening weekend

[ThomasNicole]

12 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Stop being positive you don't belong here!

Fine some bad news now 

 

 

[ListenHunnyUrOver]

 

[misterpepp]

Re: depressing/low numbers, I find box office fascinating to follow whether it ends up good or bad, there’s always something interesting going on. I’m intrigued by what makes one title misfire tremendously and another succeed wildly, but I won’t really get personally invested in cheering or jeering any of them beyond a derby/club kinda way (and even then, that’s just for casual fun).

[emoviefan]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I literally said all this. Now go back and look at the results in the 50-100 range ten years ago! Biggg difference.

Here's the thing. The movies were made. Does it suck they are not doing well as they were 10 years ago. Yeah but they are out there for us to enjoy now. Yes this a box office forum but our obession with box office is not healthy in any way, Not much we can do about it except for continue to love and consume movies and if we are the last people in a theater as they are turning out the lights for good and telling us to leave them's the breaks i guess.

[Eric Burnett]

2 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Fine some bad news now 

 

 

Well, time to work in the clay mines for the rest of my life. 🫡

[Johnny Tran]

9 minutes ago, Veclozy said:

Yeah but the flops outnumber the hits, BvS killed JL's hype, it flopped on its opening weekend

 

Because of the studio turmoil.  If not for the studio turmoil and them making it clear that they were going in a completely different direction, the movie would have did far better business.  

 

Instead of trying to please the fans they had,  they pleased nobody. 

[titanic2187]

19 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

This year has been solid for smaller movies, i’m very happy with it honestly.

 

 

Sorry I couldn't get the optimism here. I do have to agree there are some recovery sign for Oscar-hopeful titles as compared to the clusterbomb last year but outside of that, there are really nothing much to celebrate in 2023.

 

Late-2022 was blessed with multiple non-tentpole flicks. Ticket to paradise and Woman King both come close to 70m and VN did 50m, don't forget the menu did 38m too. I don't see 2023 come any much better than what we had in 2022. The Holdovers start dropping in 4th weekend despite double in theater locations, and Anatomy of fall falling behind Triangle of Sadness means the recovery of specialty market and non-tentpole adult flick is still pretty much stagnant.    

 

 

 

[emoviefan]

Okay, Me and Thomas are trying. Trying to get the sad sacks to stop being sad sacks is futile.

[judestar619]

What an abysmal past two months for the box office this has been. FNAF being the shittiest movie I've seen all year whilst also being one of the biggest post-summer hits, if not the biggest, is just the cherry on top.

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, ThomasNicole said:

Other than the biggest bomb of all time, this weekend seems good to me, considering our new reality 

 

THG is okayish, but with a 95M budget, is decent. 
 

Trolls 3 shaping up to have a nice run globally. 
 

Thanksgiving did fine, especially considering the budget. 
 

Smaller movies are solid, Priscilla especially. Saltburn also looks like it can be another mini breakout for this type of movies. 

Agree. Looking back to the weekend last year, we had a massive second weekend for BP2 but still this weekend’s top 10 have outgrossed it.  Two big movies coming out this week that are stronger than last year’s Thanksgiving contenders.  BOSS and Trolls should hold fine too. 

Edited November 19, 2023 by wildphantom

[JimmyB]

7 minutes ago, emoviefan said:

Okay, Me and Thomas are trying. Trying to get the sad sacks to stop being sad sacks is futile.

The numbers are bad. To call that out doesn't seem like being a sad sack it's just reality.  I find that better than "it's fine meme with room on fire" or just sticking your head in sand and ignoring bad data. 

 

2023 50th highest grossing film Domestic is Knock at the Cabin with 35m.

 

2019 50th highest grossing film Domestic is Midway with 56M,

 

2013 50th highest grossing film Domestic is Smurfs 2 with 71M.

[emoviefan]

[TheFlatLannister]

2 hours ago, reddevil19 said:

Its been dead since the first day of presales tracking 

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

Agree. Looking back to the weekend last year, we had a massive second weekend for BP2 but still this weekend’s top 10 have outgrossed it.  Two big movies coming out this week that are stronger than last year’s Thanksgiving contenders.  BOSS and Trolls should hold fine too. 

As I have said the problem here is the implosion of The MCU with the Marvels. If that had hit this would be a improvement over last year when it was BP;WF and the One week engagement of Glass Onion. That was it.  BOSS and Trolls are doing fine for their expactations and Wish and Napoleon will too.

[Barnack]

18 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

and ignoring bad data. 

 

2023 50th highest grossing film Domestic is Knock at the Cabin with 35m.

 

2019 50th highest grossing film Domestic is Midway with 56M,

 

2013 50th highest grossing film Domestic is Smurfs 2 with 71M.

2019-2013 have thanksgiving + december to help a bit here, to date I imagine number 50 in 2019 would have looked closer to 45 millions dbo, Midway for example finished this weekend at 43m.

 

This was already pretty much saying the same

2023	$7,892,109,288	-	+22.4%	+138.4%	+293.4%	-18.3%	-24.1%
2022	$6,446,004,999	-18.3%	-	+94.7%	+221.3%	-33.3%	-38%
2021	$3,310,553,920	-58%	-48.6%	-	+65%	-65.7%	-68.2%
2020	$2,006,236,345	-74.6%	-68.9%	-39.4%	-	-79.2%	-80.7%
2019	$9,659,822,644	+22.4%	+49.9%	+191.8%	+381.5%	-	-7.1%

 

 

Despite 3-4 years of aggressive inflation, only 80% of what it was in nominal term (and 2019 was a down year)

Edited November 19, 2023 by Barnack

[Bob Train]

10 minutes ago, JimmyB said:

The numbers are bad. To call that out doesn't seem like being a sad sack it's just reality.  I find that better than "it's fine meme with room on fire" or just sticking your head in sand and ignoring bad data. 

 

2023 50th highest grossing film Domestic is Knock at the Cabin with 35m.

 

2019 50th highest grossing film Domestic is Midway with 56M,

 

2013 50th highest grossing film Domestic is Smurfs 2 with 71M.

To be fair, there are still at least 8 movies this year likely to make >35m, so it is not exactly a fair comparison. By the end of the year the #50 film will be closer to 45-50m.

 

While sure, that is down from 2019 56m, it is also way up from the pitiful 22m from last year. So the BO is still recovering from the pandemic, which is why 2023 is 23% above 2022. Eventually we will reach a new post-pandemic “normal”, but we aren‘t there yet.