Weekend Thread | Est. Renaissance $21M, TBOSS $14.5M, Godzilla -1.0 $11.03M, Trolls 3 $7.60M, Wish $7.41M, Napoleon $7.13M, Animal $6.14M, The Shift $4.36M &The Marvels $2.51M

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

3 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

 

I never actually believed this bullshit. If PVOD doesn't hurt, we wouldn't have issue of annual BO falling significantly behind the pre-pandemic year. Obviously the PVOD are hurting the grosses especially for platform release. 

They point to the low-ish drops on the Universal movies that went to PVOD early, like Super Mario Bros and Puss In Boots. Those movies didn't fall off at the box office like The Holdovers has with PVOD, but the circumstances are very different.

 

It just appeals to a crowd who say they wish there were more non-franchise movies in theaters, but for whatever reason can't be bothered to show up to movie theaters in large enough numbers anymore. Another Alexander Payne movie, The Descendants, was released in mid-November 2011 and stayed in under 1,000 theaters until late January 2012, but made over $50 million domestic in that time. Theatrical runs like that or Green Book or Silver Linings Playbook just aren't happening now. Even replicating a Lion-type run would be an absolute miracle.

 

People hope that if theatrical exclusive windows were longer again, then eventually moviegoing habits will return to the 2010s levels, but it's probably not going to happen. Especially not with "Oscar hopeful" types. Nolan kept his movie off PVOD for months, but there was always more interest in a Nolan movie to begin with.

 

Edited December 3, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[MysteryMovieMogul]

29 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Color Purple definitely won't win december WW, I could see it DOM though I'm a bit wary thinking of keyser's Ali comp, presales after the 25th don't look anywhere near as good.

It'll be Part 2 of the discourse from The Little Mermaid.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

2 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

They point to the low-ish drops on the Universal movies that went to PVOD early, like Super Mario Bros and Puss In Boots. Those movies didn't fall off at the box office like The Holdovers has with PVOD, but the circumstances are very different.

 

It just appeals to a crowd who say they wish there were more non-franchise movies in theaters, but for whatever reason can't be bothered to show up to movie theaters in large enough numbers anymore. Another Alexander Payne movie, The Descendants, was released in mid-November 2011 and stayed in under 1,000 theaters until late January 2012, but made over $50 million domestic in that time. Theatrical runs like that or Green Book or Silver Linings Playbook just aren't happening now. Even replicating a Lion-type run would be an absolute miracle.

 

People hope that if theatrical exclusive windows were longer again, then eventually moviegoing habits will return to the 2010s levels, but it's probably not going to happen. Especially not with "Oscar hopeful" types. Nolan kept his movie off PVOD for months, but there was always more interest in a Nolan movie to begin with.

 

The Holdovers is also rental price on Amazon Prime. It's not $20+ like most films are when they first hit PVOD.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I can definitely see The Colour Purple winning December domestically given the mixed reactions to Wonka and the apathy towards Aquaman 2. It definitely won't win worldwide though given it's a very black-centric movie.

[emoviefan]

12 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

They point to the low-ish drops on the Universal movies that went to PVOD early, like Super Mario Bros and Puss In Boots. Those movies didn't fall off at the box office like The Holdovers has with PVOD, but the circumstances are very different.

 

It just appeals to a crowd who say they wish there were more non-franchise movies in theaters, but for whatever reason can't be bothered to show up to movie theaters in large enough numbers anymore. Another Alexander Payne movie, The Descendants, was released in mid-November 2011 and stayed in under 1,000 theaters until late January 2012, but made over $50 million domestic in that time. Theatrical runs like that or Green Book or Silver Linings Playbook just aren't happening now. Even replicating a Lion-type run would be an absolute miracle.

 

People hope that if theatrical exclusive windows were longer again, then eventually moviegoing habits will return to the 2010s levels, but it's probably not going to happen. Especially not with "Oscar hopeful" types. Nolan kept his movie off PVOD for months, but there was always more interest in a Nolan movie to begin with.

 

It's a  what comes first the chicken or the egg situation. The studios will say well people say they want these non franchise movies in the theater and then don't go so might as well move  it to PVOD and streaming ASAP and the audiences would say we would go but you expect us to go opening weekend even if  it's not a theater near us and then throw it on streaming within a month so we might as well watch it at home. 

Edited December 3, 2023 by emoviefan

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

27 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

The Holdovers is also rental price on Amazon Prime. It's not $20+ like most films are when they first hit PVOD.

Oh really, it's regular PVOD price ($19.99 to rent) from Google. Focus must really want to get the Christmas movie money while it's hot.

 

 

[JustWatching]

3 hours ago, Cookson said:

 How does that rank overall for a live action Japanese film opening? 

Per Collider, No. 1.

 

https://collider.com/godzilla-minus-one-global-box-office-34-million/

 

Also the No. 2 foreign-language live-action debut ever behind Hero (2002).

[Kon]

37 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

It'll be Part 2 of the discourse from The Little Mermaid.

The kind of discourse seems to be different.

 

As the Color Purple "brand" has always been directed towards black women, you won't have "they changed a character race to be woke" discourse. However, you will have "this movie hates men" discourse.

Edited December 3, 2023 by Kon

[MysteryMovieMogul]

Just now, Kon said:

The kind of discourse seems to be different.

 

As the Color Purple "brand" has always been directed towards black women, you won't have "they changed a character race to be woke" discourse. However, you will have "this movie hates men" discourse.

Oh, I guess I meant the "black characters aren't popular outside of the United States" discourse.

[babz06]

3 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Oh, I guess I meant the "black characters aren't popular outside of the United States" discourse.

Well we already know thats not true. The Color Purple musical was never that popular outside the states. So i wouldnt expect it to do as well internationally.

Edited December 3, 2023 by babz06

[Bob Train]

 

[M37]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

Color Purple definitely won't win december WW, I could see it DOM though I'm a bit wary thinking of keyser's Ali comp, presales after the 25th don't look anywhere near as good.

I’ve been trying to warn people for a while now that a big Xmas day opening usually represents more than 10% of eventual total gross (9x or less). Even Daddy’s Home for example was $15.7M/$150.3M

 

TCP is (probably) not winning December, stilling expecting it to end up behind Wonka and even Aquaman based on current pre-sales and expected legs given respective release dates. Not to say it can’t, but would require atypical legs, like Little Women in 2019, which only dropped 6% from 12/25 to 12/26, and sales don’t suggest that’s a likely outcome for TCP

 

 

Edited December 3, 2023 by M37

[belblazer]

Not The Marvels ending under Birds of Prey without China and with a R rating.

[JustLurking]

15 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

Oh, I guess I meant the "black characters aren't popular outside of the United States" discourse.

It's not really a discourse? The numbers speak for themselves. Objectively other than a few black actors that really cemented themselves a few decades back black-led films struggle overseas compared to DOM. Like, it's quite literally factual?

Edited December 3, 2023 by JustLurking

[emoviefan]

4 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

 

God what could have been if they like  you know made a good movie. The interest was there.

[MovieMan89]

So prob 210ish finish for Marvels and I will say 130 for Wish, but only because it has a few notable markets left. It’s clear it’s bombing everywhere though.
 

I will be very curious if we ever find out which Disney took a bigger box office loss on, since that would be too close of a call for us to definitively guess. Though I honesty think Wish’s campaign cost more, so despite the movie budgets gap, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s Wish.
 

Of course the flip side of that is that Wish is nearly guaranteed to do better than TM on D+ due to the nature of both films. The flip flipside is I wonder what kind of loss Disney will also take on all the Wish merch they definitely produced if they can’t manage to sell it?
 

Godzilla’s OW is so damn cool, that budget just floors me. I don’t care what anyone is trying to claim about labor cost differences vs Hollywood, there’s no way every spectacle filmmaker in Hollywood shouldn’t be taking major notes here. The spectacle is MIND BOGGLING for a $15m budget in 2023. Mind boggling. So happy for Toho, they earned this one that’s for sure. 

[belblazer]

Judging by the wonderful numbers both tours made, Beryoncé and Taylor are the only ones who could earn these numbers for a concert film. The other female act who usually does numbers on par with them is Pink.

[MysteryMovieMogul]

7 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

It's not really a discourse? The numbers speak for themselves. Objectively other than a few black actors that really cemented themselves a few decades back black-led films struggle overseas compared to DOM. Like, it's quite literally factual?

 

19 minutes ago, babz06 said:

Well we already know thats not true. The Color Purple musical was never that popular outside the states. So i wouldnt expect it to do as well internationally.

 

Well, seeing as these two replies contradict each other, I can clearly say there is a discourse.

[JustLurking]

6 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

 

 

Well, seeing as these two replies contradict each other, I can clearly say there is a discourse.

The vast majority of black-led films skew domestic and often heavily so with the opposite being rare (with the exception of a couple actors like Smith), I don't get what there is to discuss about it. This isn't an opinion, the numbers literally state that these films tend to be more popular domestically than internationally.

 

That's not to say OS "hates" them but it's certainly harder for these films to make money off those markets.

Edited December 3, 2023 by JustLurking

[Maggie]

Don't take the bait...