Weekend Thread | Est. Renaissance $21M, TBOSS $14.5M, Godzilla -1.0 $11.03M, Trolls 3 $7.60M, Wish $7.41M, Napoleon $7.13M, Animal $6.14M, The Shift $4.36M &The Marvels $2.51M

[Kon]

24 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

This is worse than Deadline predicted for Friday.

 

Deadline has predicted this second weekend will drop 61% drop from the first weekend (terrible for a Disney animated movie). So, I guess the reall drop will be worse too.

Edited December 2, 2023 by Kon

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

14 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

outgrossing doctor strange's ow now not the most likely scenario 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

5 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

Yikes, this is a bomb, too.

[PNF2187]

5 minutes ago, Kon said:

 

This is worse than Deadline predicted for Friday.

 

Deadline has predicted this second weekend will drop 61% drop from the first weekend (terrible for a Disney animated movie). So, I guess the reall drop will be worse too.

Just from comping this against a few other Thanksgiving openers, a 61% drop seems like the best case scenario here with a Strange World comp. Coco, Ralph 2, and Encanto comps put this closer to a 64% drop.

[Taylor89]

 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

I know its not a normal movie, but it still seems kinda weird to me that some people will be celebrating a 20-25 million ow as a win

 

2019 really spoiled us 

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Taylor89 said:

 

 

 

Seems like on the over/under 20M race, it should crack 20M and get to 21/22M without a catastrophic Sat/Sun fall...

 

Disney is setting up to have a disastrous holiday.  With Wish already under Trolls 3, it's lost the battle on which animated gets saved Dec 22 to accompany Migration for the biggest box office week of the year at most small and midsize theaters.  And Marvels is in free fall, and won't get saved, either.

 

We could be looking at a Xmas where 2500-3000 theaters carry no Disney product for the duration.

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, Taylor89 said:

 

 

Complementing Renaissance‘s current 97% positive and 5 star audience exits on Comscore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak is an A+ CinemaScore, a rare feat for any theatrical wide release. Bravo, Beyoncé. tHE Pic’s Friday, including $5M previews, came in at $11.6M. Other diagnostics on Queen Bey: The audience is still charged by 72% women, 68% between 18-34 and the largest quad being 25-34 years old at 43%. Diversity demos are 52% Black, 20%  Caucasian, 19% Latino and Hispanic, and 9% Asian/other. PLF and Imax are driving close to half of the weekend’s gross. Renaissance is occurring in full force in the East, South and South Central with the AMC Lincoln Square in NYC the best theater in the nation with close to $110K through Friday.   

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

I know its not a normal movie, but it still seems kinda weird to me that some people will be celebrating a 20-25 million ow as a win

 

2019 really spoiled us 

 

It's called resetting expectations - I mean, a week before, they were still $30M+ for OW, so we helped reset the Beyonce movie's OW expectations to something more reasonable.

 

And, as was said with Taylor, the budget's so low, it was a win from presales, so everything is gravy for the movie...

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

I know its not a normal movie, but it still seems kinda weird to me that some people will be celebrating a 20-25 million ow as a win

 

2019 really spoiled us 

For a concert/documentary film, it's doing in line with titles like Michael Jackson's This Is It and Justin Bieber: Never Say Never. Eras Tour was clearly very much an outlier in terms of how high a project like this can go.

[Johnny Tran]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

 

 

My argument was more meant in general, i wasnt meaning to say that Hollywood should copy Japans budget model 1:1 or anythung like that. But i dont think anyone can argue against that fact that Hollywoods' recent blockbuster budgets have gotten so insanely large that they practically doom their movies to automatically fail. If a movie needs to gross 600M WW to merely break even, thats a big problem.

 

And Godzilla Minus One shows that you dont need a 250M budget to deliver a great and epic movie.

 

The Creator looked really good for what the budget was.  It was around $80M I think.  It looked better than a lot of blockbusters with budgets that are three times that.  

 

Here's the problem:  Nobody went to see it. 

[MysteryMovieMogul]

3 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

I know its not a normal movie, but it still seems kinda weird to me that some people will be celebrating a 20-25 million ow as a win

 

2019 really spoiled us 

I think it's weird when people are celebrating big drops from Disney films but completely ignoring when other studio films have the same kind of drops.

 

At what point can we admit that Apple's gamble on filmmakers might, in fact, lose them money in the long run?

 

And no, I don't prescribe to the idea that Apple is just showing filmmakers they can trust Apple, because honestly, I'd trust them more if they gave a rising unknown money, and not known quantities like Ridley Scott or Martin Scorsese.

[Issac Newton]

Godzilla Minus One

 

 

 

Godzilla Minus One is a plus among those who bought tickets with an A CinemaScore, and updated PostTrak exits of 92% positive, 83% definite recommend. Guys leading at 77% with 63% of the audience between 18-34 and 25-34 the biggest quad at 38%. Diversity demos are 46% Caucasian, 31% Latino and Hispanic, 7% Black and 15% Asian/other. Godzilla’s chomp on PLF and IMAX screens are repping 45% of the pic’s weekend biz. Even play across the country, though West is the best. Top venue in the country is AMC Lincoln Square with close to $26K. Friday was $4.7M which includes $2.1M previews.

Edited December 2, 2023 by Issac Newton

[Johnny Tran]

3 minutes ago, MysteryMovieMogul said:

At what point can we admit that Apple's gamble on filmmakers might, in fact, lose them money in the long run?

 

You seem to be hung up on this idea so my question to you is how are you going to prove it?  Apple didn't make these with box office in mind,  they want subscribers for Apple+ 

[filmlover]

It's going to be unfortunate if December ends up just as weak as November or worse (and to be truly honest, it looks like it might) because looking at the schedule for the first few months of the year, we're going to be in for quite a dry spell (the most high-profile release during the January/February corridor being...Madame Web, I guess? Yikes).

[M37]

Wish falling off faster than Strange World, probably in part from the presence of Trolls as an alternative, whereas SW's main family competition was the remnants of Lyle Crocodile (in week 9) and I suppose BPWF.

 

One general note about Friday numbers: it was an unusually busy Friday night for college sports, with the (final) Pac-12 Championship game and implications on the CFB Playoffs, plus 4 of the top 6 MCBB teams in action in competitive games, including one head-to-head match-up. Personally, those those viewing options kept me at home rather a potential movie theater trip

[Issac Newton]

 

 

[Jake4]

15 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

I know its not a normal movie, but it still seems kinda weird to me that some people will be celebrating a 20-25 million ow as a win

 

2019 really spoiled us 

But for this week post thanksgiving, the record OW is 24m with The Last Samurai. So it has never been a huge week anyways and beyonce releasing it this was a risk but her fans still showed up.