Christmas Weekend Thread | Xmas Day #s - Purple 18.1, Aqua 10.6, Wonka 10.3, Boys 5.7, Migration 5.4, Ferrari 2.9 | #BlackGirlMagic dominates the charts

[Valonqar]

36 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

LMAO where's that 700M figure pulled out of? Like what calculation takes into account the "smaller" BatB animated film having a higher grossing live action remake than the bigger Aladdin to apply to TLM on a 1:1 basis? 

 

Anyways TLM's DOM heavy performance gives it higher returns vs. MI. And as for toys being irrelevant, tell that to the Cars franchise where they just kept making films to churn out merchandise until they found out they didn't need the movies at all.

 

I don't give a flying fuck about ancillary returns such as toys. Boxoffice was a flop. Boxoffice alone. Everything else is a gravy train that helped the overpriced bust look not as bad as its boxoffice. But the blame is 100% on 250M waste and no it isn't just muh covid, it's terrible SFX from digitally flattening Halle's beautiful chest (why?) to shitty underwater effect that got mogged by AWOW to I don't even know what else they wasted their money on. Bardem's salary cannot be that big. 

[Borobudur]

Looks like WB overshot Wonka by 300k yesterday. It is now revised at 10m, not 10.3m..

Dec 25, 2023

3

$10,000,000

+120%

+150%

4,213

$2,374

$85,553,000

11

 

Aqua and TCP not affected. 

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

For some reason this reminded me of the quote from Jaws LOL

 

You make a movie called Priscilla everyone goes hunh what?

 

You make elvis, and we got a panic on our hands on the 4th of July.

 

[vale9001]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

 

 

Title your movie Elvis, women take it to over 150M boxoffice. Title your movie Priscilla, it tops out at 20M give or take. 

 

I mean yeah could have a different impact but you can't compare two very different projects. One with Tom Hanks and a 100M+ budget, One Is indie and no old star. With all the difference in marketing, promotion, distribution and everything. 

Do a 100M Priscilla biopic with Jennifer Lawrence, meryl streep and Greta Gerwig as director and we can compare more.

[Valonqar]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Expectations for MI7 was higher than TLM (at least on this forum). They were both disappointments at the end of the day 

 

Yes because TGM success was applied to MI7 which was false equation but even so the movie had no reason to flop on paper. Acclaimed predecessor? Check. Cruise saving cinema in 2022? Check.Great WOM building since test screenings? Check. Critical raves? Check. Strong fandom reception? Check. Yet even the casually faithful abandoned it in favor of Barbenheimer while TC&co put almost 300M into Part 1. It flopped. It doesn't matter why - it's always several factors - but we live in the wra where 500M+ is a flop cause budgets are skyrocketing (though they shouldn't).

 

TC and Robbie reversed their 2022 fortunes in 2023. She had 2 flops in 2022 but the biggest movie of 2023, while he had the biggest dom movie/second biggest WW of 2022 and a bomb in 2023.

Edited December 27, 2023 by Valonqar

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, vale9001 said:

 

I mean yeah could have a different impact but you can't compare two very different projects. One with Tom Hanks and a 100M+ budget, One Is indie and no old star. With all the difference in marketing, promotion, distribution and everything. 

Do a 100M Priscilla biopic with Jennifer Lawrence, meryl streep and Greta Gerwig as director and we can compare more.

 

Still wouldn't do that much without a hot male lead. It's a fact of life and nothing wrong with that. I don't know why there's an attempt to reeducate female audience about what they should like but hot male lead tends to be a bigger draw in female-oriented movies. Remove Ken from Barbie and you wouldn't get the same boxoffice, Remove Tom Blyth from BOSAS and you can guess the rest. I'm half joking about Priscilla cause there's Jacob Elordi but the emphasis wasn't on him and also younger generation doesn't care for Elvis or Priscilla. Elvis the movie was driven by older women who know the story and music. 

[titanic2187]

17 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

They didn’t let WOM build long enough. It’s small drops in subsequent weeks shows that WOM and interest were building, but by that point many places already were dropping it because of the low open. It would have benefitted from a full platform release - 10, then 50, then 200, then 500, then 1000, etc. 

It opened way too wide over a crowded holiday weekend when most people had still heard nothing about it at that point. 

 

I really don't understand why didn't more studio embrace platform release and worse, neither filmmakers are requesting them like the way Nolan demand from Universal. Saltburn will be a streaming phenomenon no matter what, just earlier or latter. I wonder if Bottoms meh performance from a more staggered run affect their decision here. 

 

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It's a niche movie. Quite frankly it becoming an instant cult classic on streaming was pretty easy to see coming after seeing it.

 

But the way I look the movie can be a cult classic even without streaming. 

 

18 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Jat was right about Color Purple missing 100 lol. Never should have brought it up!

 

Nah, I still think 100m is pretty much on table. I remember someone brought up American Underdog. That movie drop 60% on Boxing day too. Overall it made 26.5m out from 4.2m on opening CD, 6.3x from CD. This means TCP would make ~114m.  

[Valonqar]

TCP is likely going over 100M like Hidden Figures. Some bring up Woman King but the difference is that men wouldn't touch Woman King with a pole so older AA female audience wasn't enough to carry it far while TCP only doesn't interest Zoomers but men aren't resisting it. So it has bigger base audience unlike WK. More similar to Hidden Figures. 

[joaqs]

Don't forget TCP will have a nice MLK weekend boost and a barren January to still play. If it's lucky, it can even get an Oscar noms boost.

[PrinceRico]

4 minutes ago, joaqs said:

Don't forget TCP will have a nice MLK weekend boost and a barren January to still play. If it's lucky, it can even get an Oscar noms boost.

Yes TCP will be around for a while

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

Charlie Jatinder has been weirdly inaccurate with the Wonka predictions, always overestimating the gross, which is very uncharacteristic as he is usually very precise and spot on. What is happening?

[PlatnumRoyce]

1 hour ago, Spidey Freak said:

Anyways TLM's DOM heavy performance gives it higher returns vs. MI. And as for toys being irrelevant, tell that to the Cars franchise where they just kept making films to churn out merchandise until they found out they didn't need the movies at all.

I mean, there's a reason we know just how much the Cars franchise made - Disney bragged about it to distract from poor quality and moderately bad box office gross of cars sequels. You can just as easily point out that Disney is loosing just as much as cars made in toy licensing revenue by utterly screwing up Wish given that "Disney Princess" brand is contently ranked #1 (above star wars) in those not terribly reliable licensing lists. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

2 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

Charlie Jatinder has been weirdly inaccurate with the Wonka predictions, always overestimating the gross, which is very uncharacteristic as he is usually very precise and spot on. What is happening?

Sounds like there's something Wonk-y going on with the data.

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[AniNate]

I do feel TLM is a shaky example to use as a "rousing success". It wasn't a huge hit by the standards of Disney fairytale remakes, though it does look better in the context of Disney's larger slate this year.

 

Just seeing that there were more recent reports that the production budget was closer to $300mil, if that's the case that definitely makes it a more dubious example

 

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by AniNate

[Cookson]

3 minutes ago, JustWatching said:

Less than a million to go to beat Shin Godzilla worldwide.

it’s not totaled on BOM but Shin Godzilla actually hit 81m worldwide. It was still playing in Japan after bom's last report. Regardless it’s going to pass that soon. I actually don’t think -1’s amount in Brazil is on BOM either which is another 700k at least. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Cookson

[filmlover]

Meanwhile, Variety has posted the box office report cards for the studios + analysis this year:

 

2023 Box Office Numbers by Movie Studio: Disney, Warner Bros and More (variety.com)

 

Disney: C+

Paramount: B-

Sony: B

Universal: A

Warner Bros: B+

Apple: B

Lionsgate: B+

 

[ThePrinceIsOnFire]

22 minutes ago, AniNate said:

I do feel TLM is a shaky example to use as a "rousing success". It wasn't a huge hit by the standards of Disney fairytale remakes, though it does look better in the context of Disney's larger slate this year.

By the standars of Disney fairytale remakes it was a huge flop internationally, as it performed on par with Dumbo in most overseas markets (though it has probably sold less tickets overall), and that was the lowest bar for non-pandemic affected remakes.

In USA it didn't come too far from Aladdin's total gross (finished "just" 50 M shy)  so I guess stateside it was able to meet the expectations somehow. Though to be fair executives at disney knew about the backlash over the casting and everything else ever since 2019 and still decided to go through and give it the best promotional campaign possible, which makes me think that they thought that in USA it would fare way better than Aladdin and more in the vein of Beauty and the beast, which obviously didn't happen.

In fact, even though they probably couldn't expect the catastrophe that it turned out to be overseas, they must have been aware that it was in a very risky position, so for them to still invest so much money on P&A is quite telling.

Snow White, on the other hand, will be dumped with no fanfare, I reckon.

Edited December 27, 2023 by ThePrinceIsOnFire

[YM!]

22 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

Charlie Jatinder has been weirdly inaccurate with the Wonka predictions, always overestimating the gross, which is very uncharacteristic as he is usually very precise and spot on. What is happening?

Sometimes walkups are stronger at night, sometimes they’re weaker at night. It happens. Charlie has the data to ticket sales but anything can happen in the night. That’s not on him or tbh any other person with ComScore data but what’s going on for the GA at night.

[JustLurking]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Meanwhile, Variety has posted the box office report cards for the studios + analysis this year:

 

2023 Box Office Numbers by Movie Studio: Disney, Warner Bros and More (variety.com)

 

Disney: C+

Paramount: B-

Sony: B

Universal: A

Warner Bros: B+

Apple: B

Lionsgate: B+

 

This article just made me realise Ava2's 2023 gross alone outgrossed every single Disney release this year lol

[Valonqar]

13 minutes ago, ThePrinceIsOnFire said:

they thought that in USA it would fare way better than Aladdin and more in the vein of Beauty and the beast, which obviously didn't happen.

 

 

If that was their line of thinking than all of them should be fired. There's nothing for the boys in TLM be it animation or live action while BatB has a monster as one of 2 protagonists and some cool action such as the wolf attack and Gaston attack on the castle. I don't have to explain what Aladdin has for the boys and girls so that leaves TLM with only girl audience while casting limited even that part (see OS reaction). Had the movie had a reasonable budget, it would have been a minor hit but still a hit. But with 250M, that sank to the bottom of the ocean. Not as massive bomb as The Marvels since it didn't lose hundreds of millions but it isn't a success except in the eyes of those who are twisting themselves into a pretzel trying to spin it as one. 

Edited December 27, 2023 by Valonqar