Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread (12/26-28)

[titanic2187]

 

 

 

 

 

[Wandavisionlover0924]

37 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

To be fair, no demo other than Black 25+ women is showing...it could use any demo strength outside of that group... 

Does anyone have the indepth demo for this movie and  I can't find the article that gives whole insight. I remember someone mentioning earlier in this thread that the advantage TCP that Woman King didn't was that it appealed to men

[ban1o]

2 minutes ago, Wandavisionlover0924 said:

Does anyone have the indepth demo for this movie and  I can't find the article that gives whole insight. I remember someone mentioning earlier in this thread that the advantage TCP that Woman King didn't was that it appealed to men

completely anecdotal but my 21 year old (black) brother and his friends loved the Woman King. Saw it in theaters nad said it was one of his favorite films of 2022. 

[AniNate]

It's kinda hard for me to believe CP having more male appeal than Woman King

[M37]

Quote

With the 26th being Discount Day, really have to wait until the Wednesday 12/27 numbers (and maybe Friday for the lower level holdovers) to get a good sense of the post-Xmas baseline value and being able to start fine tuning expectations for legs

Now that we have Wed numbers, some general thoughts on next couple of weeks

 

Wonka - still basically here and here, though probably bump those range numbers on the latter by like $10M. If it were to follow Avatar 2's path from Wed, would top $240M, but still fall short of $250M. Does seem to be a candidate to break the $225M glass ceiling, though not by much (4.0x the first week would be $230M)

 

Aquaman 2 - need to see how next week plays out, trending weaker than 2017 openers on this weekend.  Should be somewhere around $100M by end of week 3 (Thur 1/11), then adding another $20M or so after that, sub-5x from 3-day OW looks likely barring some recovery this weekend and beoynd

 

Migration - despite outgrossing it on the post-Xmas Wed (est $6.2M vs $5.8M), going to pump the breaks on the Puss in Boots comparisons, as WOM isn't on same level. and legs in Jan and Feb should be weaker than not only Puss but maybe even Sing 2 (for different reasons). Thinking $70-$75M by end of week 3, and could give Aquaman 2 a run in the end though, but for now (pending more data) would take the under, like $110-$120M

 

TCP - Discussed above, looking to me like $90M+

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

3 hours ago, joaqs said:

Remember when everyone was angry at Sony for not releasing ABY at Valentine's Day? Now they're laughing all the way to the bank...

They spend way less on marketing this way, too.

 

Unfortunate about The Color Purple's post-Christmas Day results. It's getting the "Black trauma porn" allegations from social media (younger people) and the 1985 version got heat through the years for negative portrayals of Black men in particular. So that tracks with the attendance now being skewed so strongly to older Black women, the group least likely to have an issue with TCP conceptually. Maybe WB should have pulled a Boy and the Heron and "prorated" the early screenings into the daily numbers. Hoping the weekend numbers rebound...

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[WorkingonaName]

3 minutes ago, AniNate said:

It's kinda hard for me to believe CP having more male appeal than Woman King

Woah buddy

[titanic2187]

TCP tepid hold really screw up my $9bn hope for NA market. Wonka and Aquaman is holding pretty much like how it should be and there aren't any sizable surprise that can offset the shortfall. 

 

Now TCP is again out of my Oscar's best picture prediction list. It was firmly in my top 10 but dropped out after GG snub but rebound after that 18m+ OD, but again slipped out after this tepid hold. 

 

50 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

To be fair, no demo other than Black 25+ women is showing...it could use any demo strength outside of that group... 

 

This does not only happened to TCP. The WOM basically confined in the core demo.

Earlier this year we have MI7 and DnD experienced the similar fate. No matter how great the WOM at the exit, the audience just aren't showing up in masses. There isn't enough of interest to move people going to cinema no matter how good they heard about the movie. 

[ban1o]

3 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

Woah buddy

I agree with them. Color Purple is a musical adaption of a movie a lot of black men accuse of being "anti-black men" I don't agree with that depiction and I personally loved both films, but I can't deny it's a pretty common belief. 

 

I know Woman King had this weird misogynist  internet campaign against it at the time it was released but the film in general has much more appeal to black men in particular. So I don't get the assertion that TCP appeals more to men. 

Edited December 28, 2023 by ban1o

[interiorgatordecorator]

9 minutes ago, AniNate said:

It's kinda hard for me to believe CP having more male appeal than Woman King

 

lets not go there

Edited December 28, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator
someone already made "woah buddy" comment before me

[AniNate]

Well I wouldn't mind a good faith explanation. I truly am wondering what the reason is.

 

ERC estimates, Migration may have actually increased slightly

 

 

[ban1o]

1 minute ago, AniNate said:

Well I wouldn't mind a good faith explanation. I truly am wondering what the reason is.

 

ERC estimates, Migration may have actually increased slightly

 

 

hunger games really hanging in there. Really shows WOM still matters. 

[PlatnumRoyce]

1 hour ago, Mojoguy said:

Really sad about what's going on with TCP, white people aren't showing up for the movie at all even with such a high Cinemascore.

 

Reminds me of The Woman King.

I really want to see WB's marketing. When I did a mini data collection of ispot/edo data earlier this year, I was shocked to see how small the reported tv spend was given how much I saw of it (either I randomly got most of their premium-ish sports marketing on tv or they just correctly identified me as a viola davis stan). It really seems like Sony didn't try to expand woman king's target audience in ad spending even while hyping the film up as a best picture contender (instead of a rip-roaring action/war-drama). 

 

Did WB push in their chips on TCP or sell the film's scale in spots but scale back the amount of marketing more along the vein of a Black Adam? 

 

 

[JonathanMB]

Here's how the movies have increased/decreased from their Saturday numbers to Wednesday numbers:

 

Wonka - +14.29%

Aquabro 2 - -34.78%

Migration - +48.94% (+58.54% with ERC's number)

Anyone But You - +48.31%

The Iron Claw - -9.29%

The Boy and the Heron - -26.52% (+29.13% PTA)

 

Here’s how those numbers looked in 2017:

 

Last Jedi - -25.11%

Jumanji - +2.42%

Pitch Perfect 3 - -3.30%

Greatest Showman - +30.76%

Ferdinand - +37.19%

Coco - +19.87%

Downsizing - -15.95%

Darkest Hour - -9.73%

 

 

Was hoping I would be able to gleam something from this for the weekend, but the holds seem a lot different from 2017, so I dunno. Just some more data to chew on I guess.

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by JonathanMB

[filmlover]

Leading up to release the massive sales were also warning signs for Color Purple that indicated it might end up going the way of Ali (which went from a $10M+ Christmas Day Monday opening to less than $60M total 22 years ago in what might as well be an entirely different moviegoing world at this point). Clearly finding outsider appeal beyond its core demos that rushed out immediately is the big issue here.

Edited December 28, 2023 by filmlover

[AniNate]

Migration is more or less following Ferdinand's day-to-day trends, difference is having higher nominal sales and no Paddington 2 to compete with in January will probably encourage theaters to keep it longer, unless the Pixar releases end up being a significant draw.

 

 

Edited December 28, 2023 by AniNate

[PlatnumRoyce]

20 minutes ago, Wandavisionlover0924 said:

Does anyone have the indepth demo for this movie and  I can't find the article that gives whole insight. I remember someone mentioning earlier in this thread that the advantage TCP that Woman King didn't was that it appealed to men

In general, Deadline's weekend articles have consistently had this stuff updating through the weekend for over a half decade.
 

Quote

Diversity demos on the Oprah Winfrey-Steven Spielberg produced Color Purple were 65% Black, 19% Caucasian, 11% Hispanic and Latino and 2% Asian. We always knew presales were big, especially in the South, with projections for Christmas Day raising from $8M to $10M-$12M. But yesterday was amazing.

Quote

Older folks may have taken a longer time to return to cinemas post Covid, but they came back big with Color Purple‘s largest demo being those over 55 at 25%; they also gave the Blitz Bazawule directed movie its best grades at 97%. Women over 25 turned out at 62% (94% grade), followed by guys over 25 at 21% (86%), women under 25 at 14% (91%) with guys under 25 a far distant at 4% (89%). - https://deadline.com/2023/12/box-office-aquaman-and-the-lost-kingdom-migration-color-purple-1235680766/

 

[Kon]

24 minutes ago, Wandavisionlover0924 said:

Does anyone have the indepth demo for this movie and  I can't find the article that gives whole insight. I remember someone mentioning earlier in this thread that the advantage TCP that Woman King didn't was that it appealed to men

 

TCP isn't really more appealing to men. It's just that over 25 years old men (21%) is still bigger audience than under 25 years old women (14%).

 

TCP really fails to attract a younger audience.

 

 

[Borobudur]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Leading up to release the massive sales were also warning signs for Color Purple that indicated it might end up going the way of Ali (which went from a $10M+ Christmas Day Monday opening to less than $60M total 22 years ago in what might as well be an entirely different moviegoing world at this point). Clearly finding outsider appeal beyond its core demos that rushed out immediately is the big issue here.

Even if the movie is following Ali, it would still hit 100m, somewhere 104m but the hold has been weaker. So the best received movie of the season somehow has the worst multiplier??? 

[Unfitclock]

How are the sales looking today compared to yesterday