MLK Weekend Thread | 3-Day/4-Day Estimates: Mean Girls 28/32, Beekeeper 16.8/19.2, Wonka 8.4/10.9, Migration 6.2/8.3, Anyone 6.9/8.2

[Webslinger]

20 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I dunno, I did hear some people think that it would have been a big hit in a non pandemic 2020.

Yeah, I think it would have done quite well between the combination of Pixar's brand recognition, the strong reviews, and the summer release date positioning. It probably wouldn't have reached Inside Out's level (and if Minions hit the same level of Gentleminions virality in this hypothetical 2020 that it did in '22, that could have put a dent in Soul's legs), but it would have been very successful.

[JustWatching]

6 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, the weather is bad enough in the middle of the country that KC can't sell playoff tickets for more than $30 and Buffalo has canceled their Sunday afternoon NFL playoff game til Monday night...SO, any movie appealing to the middle of the country will be torched this weekend...

Yeah, this. I wouldn’t read a whole lot into their weekend domestically. It’s a Netflix and chill (literally!) weekend for a big chunk of the country.

[Webslinger]

Can confirm that it is ungodly cold up in the northwest, lol. I have a lengthy list of movies I'm trying to go and see (Soul, Mean Girls, The Book of Clarence, Godzilla Minus One), but even just hopping in my car for a quick errand this morning was brutal. I agree with whomever said on the previous page that we could be looking at some really light drops next weekend, a la the last weekend in January 2016 after snowstorms did a number on holdovers the preceding weekend.

[Claire of Themyscira]

@Eric George Are you gonna be safe from the weather, bb?

[PlatnumRoyce]

7 hours ago, Valonqar said:

 

This. I've never seen Heaven's Gate but I know that it was the biggest bomb of all times that killed a studio, cause whenever something bombs really big they say it's so and so's Heaven's Gate. Golden Compass was New Line Cinea's Heaven's Gate cause it killed the studio. Norbit was Eddie Murphy's Heaven's Gate cause it lost him the Oscar for Dreamgirls. So now The Marvels is the new iconic bomb that will give Heaven's Gate a well deserved retirement. 

Jonathan Majors saga (given that it's tied into "AVENGERS") probably stops The Marvels from being the metonym for the decline of the MCU. OTOH Marvels/Marvel might help it achieve that result. I just suspect no one film gets blamed for the MCU given how it's tied into D+ integration.

[grim22]

1 hour ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

Jonathan Majors saga (given that it's tied into "AVENGERS") probably stops The Marvels from being the metonym for the decline of the MCU. OTOH Marvels/Marvel might help it achieve that result. I just suspect no one film gets blamed for the MCU given how it's tied into D+ integration.

Has Jonathan Majors had the fastest rise and fall of any actor? Yes he's been going along in the indie circuit and TV but his big "coming out" to the world was Quantamania in February, then Creed 3 in early March, the US Army ad on like March 18 or so and then the allegations on March 25.

 

Literally 6 weeks from the next Thanos to snapped out of existence.

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, cannastop said:

I dunno, I did hear some people think that it would have been a big hit in a non pandemic 2020.

I think people thought because it’s a very good movie it should do well, but the premise is heavy for Disney branded animation. Pixar did make “rat cooks your meals” work at the box office, but only because WOM was so good it saved the day. Thats what would have had to happen for Soul. 

Edited January 14 by MovieMan89

[filmlover]

I saw Mean Girls this evening and my audience (rather full for a 6:30 showtime, seems like a good sign that it isn't Color Purple levels of frontloaded) seemed to be super into it, responding to all the iconic lines, etc (clearly it was a crowd very much familiar with the OG and didn't seem phased it was a musical). Curious as to how it earned such a relatively low CinemaScore. Maybe some fans that rushed out early really don't like that, songs aside, it's a very literal remake of a now classic movie that's hard to believe is now that old?

Edited January 14 by filmlover

[Eric S'ennui]

4 hours ago, cannastop said:

I dunno, I did hear some people think that it would have been a big hit in a non pandemic 2020.

It probably would have, but I remember there were a lot of people thinking 400+ and stuff on the back of Pete Docter's name. I was even one of them. But I think numbers similar to Ratatouille sound about right in a no-COVID world, because Soul is honestly a bit too adult for a Disney movie.

 

Not a bad thing, I like the movie, but the film's super existential about the ideas of life and death, with a major subplot being about a grown adult stressing over whether he should take a job with benefits or not. This stuff will not resonate with 8 year olds. You can argue Up was able to do fine with a lot of the same themes, but that also had a cute kid sidekick and a talking dog and fun jungle adventure and all the other things that make it fun for kids. The baby souls are cute, but not really as marketable as Dug.

 

There's a reason why Luca and especially Turning Red are frequently on the Disney+ Trending page, while Soul never charts at all.

[interiorgatordecorator]

did 100 2023 10 million grossers end up happening?

 

[Legion Again]

Soul had very good reception and legs internationally in its original release despite the ease of piracy from the release model. I do feel good about hitting 300+ dom still in a world where COVID never happened.

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, Legion Again said:

Soul had very good reception and legs internationally in its original release despite the ease of piracy from the release model. I do feel good about hitting 300+ dom still in a world where COVID never happened.

Unrelated, but how much would have this movie done in normal times (OW/DOM/WW)?

 

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

did 100 2023 10 million grossers end up happening?

 

The numbers shows 106 for calendar gross (including 24 holdovers, releases,etc). Mojo agrees.   
 

For in year releases mojo showing 100 exactly and don’t see anything else that could get in without significant rerelease

[Claire of Themyscira]

22 minutes ago, Eric George said:

It probably would have, but I remember there were a lot of people thinking 400+ and stuff on the back of Pete Docter's name. I was even one of them. But I think numbers similar to Ratatouille sound about right in a no-COVID world, because Soul is honestly a bit too adult for a Disney movie.

 

Not a bad thing, I like the movie, but the film's super existential about the ideas of life and death, with a major subplot being about a grown adult stressing over whether he should take a job with benefits or not. This stuff will not resonate with 8 year olds. You can argue Up was able to do fine with a lot of the same themes, but that also had a cute kid sidekick and a talking dog and fun jungle adventure and all the other things that make it fun for kids. The baby souls are cute, but not really as marketable as Dug.

 

There's a reason why Luca and especially Turning Red are frequently on the Disney+ Trending page, while Soul never charts at all.

Oh, okay.

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Unrelated, but how much would have this movie done in normal times (OW/DOM/WW)?

 

Depends on the release date. Before COVID it was scheduled for June 5 2020, so assuming that I would say perhaps 110/275/550? That’s a very crude estimate at this point though, I bet I said something in the thread for it like 3 years ago and I’d put more trust in that num whatever it was 😂

[Eric S'ennui]

3 hours ago, Claire of Themyscira said:

@Eric George Are you gonna be safe from the weather, bb?

The storm isn't really affecting my area outside of cold winds. I've dealt with worse.

[HummingLemon496]

2 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

Depends on the release date. Before COVID it was scheduled for June 5 2020, so assuming that I would say perhaps 110/275/550? That’s a very crude estimate at this point though, I bet I said something in the thread for it like 3 years ago and I’d put more trust in that num whatever it was 😂

Ok I have one more random question:

 

What if Eternals, Multiverse of Madness, Love/Thunder, and Quantumania had good reception (A)? OW/DOM/WW. Marvel has seriously dropped the ball with the number of B range grades like holy shit, before this it was just Thor 2011 and that was just a pre-Avengers introductory solo film

Edited January 14 by HummingLemon496

[Claire of Themyscira]

1 minute ago, Eric George said:

The storm isn't really affecting my area outside of cold winds. I've dealt with worse.

Good! I'm glad you're safe for the most part.

 

My besties are experiencing their first winter in Philadelphia, so I'm curious to see how they'll feel.

[Noctis]

3 minutes ago, Legion Again said:

Depends on the release date. Before COVID it was scheduled for June 5 2020, so assuming that I would say perhaps 110/275/550? That’s a very crude estimate at this point though, I bet I said something in the thread for it like 3 years ago and I’d put more trust in that num whatever it was 😂

 

OW for WW2 in a world without Covid would have had an OW of $150m+. An easy $330m+ grosser at the absolute minimum.

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, Noctis said:

 

OW for WW2 in a world without Covid would have had an OW of $150m+. An easy $330m+ grosser at the absolute minimum.

Yes I agree, a good comp is Guardians 1 --> Guardians 2