Weekend Thread (5/17-19/2024) | WEEKEND ESTIMATES: $35M for IF, $12M for Strangers, $2.85M for Back to Black, $26M for Apes

[JustLurking]

5 minutes ago, ChipDerby said:

Wildly impressive for a live action, original family film.

 

Can anyone even name another one? Heck, it's going to almost out gross Paddington 2 in one weekend...

Paddington never did very well in the US though. Its INT split is some of the highest of any film.

 

Still I'd say this is overall solid for IF.

[ChipDerby]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

Paddington never did very well in the US though. Its INT split is some of the highest of any film.

 

Still I'd say this is overall solid for IF.

 

Domestically, live action family films rarely do well.

[Pinacolada]

59 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Pretty good for IF honestly, I pegged it for low 20s a month ago. Like The Fall Guy, I'm not gonna go sky is falling on a movie I had much lower expectations than the rest of the board. When the Watchers opens to 12m and Bikeriders does 5m and Horizon does 14m, then I'll have my meltdown.

I really hope Focus/Universal will start stepping their game up for The Bikeriders. They won't but I hope they will. This is an exciting test for Austin Butler coming off of Dune Part II. Feels like an easy point to hype and sell the movie off of. I really think Bikeriders could open to low double digits. Would honestly be happy with that, and I think it'd be a relative win. It just needs some marketing juice to get awareness up.

 

I do think with the trailers you can tell that the movie is a little slight, if you get what I mean. I've been a broken record about how dumb it is that Hardy isn't top billed on it

Edited May 18 by Pinacolada

[filmlover]

12 minutes ago, wboxoffice said:

 

It also has to do with the marketing campaign, both of those movies didn't get anywhere the promotion campaign of Elvis, Bohemian Rhapsody, Bob Marley and Rocketman that were treated like superhero movies with TV Spots and promotion everywhere.  Also the Priscilla movie that featured the Elvis character all over it also barely had promo, I bet 90% of Elvis fans didn't even know that movie exists.  These movies really had very limited and targeted promo.  Some people also say that biopics about women usually don't do as well and are not treated the same, and I find this to be somewhat true... 

 

Whitney has sales, fame, streaming/views up there with anyone, and I hear her songs in public every day, but then again she would have been very disappointed in a movie talking about her lesbian relationship, a secret that she took with her to the grave, or her drug problems, so I'm sure she would have wanted the movie to go unnoticed.  Not to mention that there have been many documentaries about her problems leading up to that biopic so people had enough. Hopefully one day they will remaster a concert of hers from her prime and put it on the big screen, that would be more appropriate and a better tribute....

I actually did see a number of ads for Back to Black (which, leading up to release, suddenly added "Amy Winehouse" to the front of the title, in what was likely a response to the poor tracking). Can't blame them for not going all out for it though when the reviews were awful (perhaps unsurprisingly, this is one artist where any biopic is always going to carry the risk of ending up on the wrong side of the celebratory/exploitative line) and they were probably able to read that there was no market for Winehouse nostalgia due to said complicated legacy + the recency of it all.

Edited May 18 by filmlover

[Speedorito]

I can’t believe we have to wait until June for a good horror film this year.

[filmlover]

3 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

I really hope Focus/Universal will start stepping their game up for The Bikeriders. They won't but I hope they will. This is an exciting test for Austin Butler coming off of Dune Part II. Feels like an easy point to hype and sell the movie off of. I really think Bikeriders could open to low double digits. Would honestly be happy with that, and I think it'd be a relative win. It just needs some marketing juice to get awareness up.

 

I do think with the trailers you can tell that the movie is a little slight, if you get what I mean. I've been a broken record about how dumb it is that Hardy isn't top billed on it

Wouldn't be surprised if it was Hardy's choice to take on the "And" credit. He's still billed alongside Comer and Butler on all the marketing materials regardless.

[AniNate]

Feels like setting yourself up for disappointment to invest rooting interest in a Jeff Nichols film at the box office, idk

[Krissykins]

17 minutes ago, filmlover said:

and they were probably able to read that there was no market for Winehouse nostalgia due to said complicated legacy + the recency of it all.

In the US*
 

13 minutes ago, Speedorito said:

I can’t believe we have to wait until June for a good horror film this year.

Huh? Plenty of great horror films so far in 2024. 

[filmlover]

Obviously going to see The Bikeriders (the accents from everyone:  the hair on everyone: ) but the fact its original studio easily gave it up after it already screened to positive reviews at the fall festivals (for a December release it would miss due to the strikes) should be the tell all as to how much box office potential it has.

 

Pretty sure the only reason it's being released in the heart of summer is that's the only time they could fit promo into the schedules of the cast (better some than potentially none like it would have last holiday season), who have moved on to or are busy with other projects that are trying to catch up with the strike-impacted schedule.

[Pinacolada]

12 minutes ago, AniNate said:

Feels like setting yourself up for disappointment to invest rooting interest in a Jeff Nichols film at the box office, idk

It definitely feels like his most commercial film but yeah as I mentioned the reviews make it seem slight or that it peters out towards the end, which i cant imagine audiences loving 

 

Even still I don't think it's outrageous to hope for like a $12m opening

 

At the same time it really feels like the market and moviegoing is worse than a year ago, not better

 

[Cmasterclay]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Tracking threw things off a bit for IF. The opening isn't the worst case scenario given the mediocre reviews.

 

None of those movies were expected to break out big in the first place (I thought The Watchers had potential when the marketing began but things are not pointing in that direction), so no need.

Well, something non-franchise has to break out to make me feel good, so.

[Mr Impossible]

Man oh man we’ve been on a string of bad horror flicks since Exorcist Believer. I thought Insidious The Red Door was lame but it’s looking better and better after continuous rancid horror movies being released. Quiet Place 3 hopefully saves us.

[Mr Impossible]

1 hour ago, Flopped said:

Does Ryan Reynolds have a single memorable movie in his filmography? A movie that you think about after you watch it, or a movie that you feel like rewatching down the line? 

Maaaaaaybe The Proposal? That seems to still get some love. I really think that's the only one? 

The first Deadpool is a classic! 

[AniNate]

1 hour ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Looks like Panda did about 200k Friday. About a 51 percent drop from last Friday. Which honestly, I thought it would drop harsher in the face of IF.

 

That was about what Migration's Friday drop was against Panda's opening, but then it proceeded to have harsher Saturday and Sunday drops

[Krissykins]

9 horror films over 70% on RT in 5 months btw. 

[Cmasterclay]

I don't see why the Watchers would be a total box office dud btw, it's got a brand name through Shams, the trailer has a fuck ton of views, I've actually heard a few people IRL talking about it, and the buzz is that it's actually good. I don't see why 15m+ shouldn't be easily obtainable tbh. That feels like a very low and reasonable expecation.

[Claire of Themyscira]

8 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

9 horror films over 70% on RT in 5 months btw. 

I know no one is listening to you, and I'm sorry. ❤️

 

Fuck these bitches! Abigail was great. I've heard The First Omen was great too.

[MOVIEGUY]

The more I see the trailer for The Watchers the more I get The Village "the twist/reveal is going to be something really stupid" vibes

Edited May 18 by MOVIEGUY

[Speedorito]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

In the US*
 

Huh? Plenty of great horror films so far in 2024. 

You’re right, I was exaggerating a little. Forgot that Abigail was received fairly well.

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 hours ago, ChipDerby said:

Wildly impressive for a live action, original family film.

 

Can anyone even name another one? Heck, it's going to almost out gross Paddington 2 in one weekend...

Guess the difference would be P2 had a 40M budget. IF has a 110M budget.

 

I still think 30M OW DOM is impressive.