Weekend Thread (6/21-23)

[Mickiland16]

16 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

INCREDIBLES III should focus on the children with Violet and Dash as Young adults and Jack-Jack, a teenager.

 

FROZEN III should have a legit villain this time.

The plot would probably be like Cars 3 in that case because Mr Incredible and Elasticgirl would be like really old isn't it? 

[crazymoviekid]

12 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

Speaking of awards, and with the teaser having been released this week, A Real Pain seems like the type of thing that ends up winning Picture. I could imagine a situation where Blitz ends up winning Globe Drama while Pain wins Globe Comedy and they split Director and Picture at the Oscar's.

Idk, I went to a test screening of the film last year and I wasn't a big fan.  I know people are enjoying it, but I thought the characters were rather irritable and by the end, the story is rather light.  Doesn't even hit emotional like Green Book or CODA.

[kayumanggi]

15 minutes ago, Mickiland16 said:

The plot would probably be like Cars 3 in that case because Mr Incredible and Elasticgirl would be like really old isn't it? 

 

More of like mentors now. I want an action-packed like really, really action-packed INCREDIBLES III. 😁

[Mickiland16]

29 minutes ago, cannastop said:

with how sequels seem to work, that's probably $300m Dom by that time.

I think even in something like 2026-2028 it would have a "big" increase (not at the level of the other sequels though). Theatrical wise Pixar was still recovering as a brand and audience clearly loved it. 

Edited June 23 by Mickiland16

[Flopped]

I forgot CODA existed until this thread. Worst BP winner of all time, right? 

[kayumanggi]

 

[M37]

54 minutes ago, XXR & Friends said:

 

I would wait and see what kind of damage DM4 does before making that definitive. 

Agree, but (needing a distraction this morning 🙁) tried to determine what the baseline expectations should be for IO2 given the data in hand thusfar.

 

Previous Disney/Pixar Father's Day Release

TITLE = 2nd Weekend Multi / 2nd Sat Drop

• Elemental = 4.82x / -25.4%
• Toy Story 4 = 3.27x / -41.4%
• Incredibles 2 = 3.22x / -46.6% (vs JW:FK)
• Finding Dory = 2.72x / -39.2%
• Cars 3 = 2.25x / -48.4%
• Lightyear = 1.60x / -56.6%

Strong correlation between the hold from opening to 2nd Saturday, and the ensuing legs, but also a lot of variability based on competition in the ensuring weeks. Dory stands out as an outlier here, especially among the higher grossers, with its legs severely cut down by Secret Life of Pets opening to $100M in week 3, while Cars 3 and Lightyear legs were also diminished by a Despicable Me film.  With that said, so far IO2 is carving a path most similar to Elemental - nearly identical -25% 2nd Sat - and while IMO it would not be reasonable to expect a 4x+ multi from this second weekend, does give an idea of the how high the bar stands before incorporating the DM4 factor.

 

Lots of nuance, will really have to wait and see a bit, but I would say penciling in another $300 (3.0x) to $350M (3.5x) after this weekend seems like a solid range, which would put the total DOM in the $650-$700M range, with some room to drop a bit below if DM4 really huts IO2, or to even top the $700M threshold if it holds strongly

 

Looks like IO2 is likely to wind up in the Top 10 all time domestic, knocking Jurassic World out (sorry @Brainbug), though some irony there considering the connection between JW and the original IO

[TomThomas]

7 minutes ago, Flopped said:

I forgot CODA existed until this thread. Worst BP winner of all time, right? 

Nomadland was probably worse.

[titanic2187]

 

 

 

[kayumanggi]

 

Edited June 23 by kayumanggi

[toutvabien]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Moana 2 and Zootopia 2 should both open big, looking at how Inside Out 2 is doing now. They're both following up major beloved animations, with the former especially seeing neverending airtime on Disney+. Their final hauls will be decided by their staying power, which will heavily depend on how good and satisfactory they are. Inside Out 2 seems to be successful in those criteria even if it's not regarded as highly as the first movie, which is why we'll be seeing a very good hold for it once the second weekend number lands in an hour and a half or so. So as long as Moana 2 and Zootopia 2 are both received well by audiences, they should have enough staying power for the billion dollar mark.

 

Frozen 3 on the other hand? I'm thinking it drops fairly steeply from the last movie. The legacy of Frozen 2 is deteriorating more and more every year, and we've seen no shortage of sequels paying for the sins of their predecessors. So unless the movie is seen as a return to form, it'll probably miss that billion dollar mark. I imagine the same would happen with a potential Incredibles 3, given how polarizing its predecessor was as well.

I think you're overestimating how much "damage to the brand" these movies have done... especially Incredibles 2 & Toy Story 4. If the follow-ups drop in b.o. it may have to do more so with those franchises reaching their ceiling/there not being enough of a hook to keep growing. I would argue that's true even for Frozen 2. Both Frozen films continue to be huge on streaming every year, this idea that Frozen mania is gone feels baseless. I'd say, out of all these projects, Incredibles 3 feels the most likely to actually pull a repeat or even increase over 2, because there are things they can do to keep people hyped. With Frozen, I guess it depends on the direction they take the franchise both narratively but also music wise. Plus, as some have pointed, they do seem to be turning it into a "saga" of sorts with that 4th film already being developed. But it's also the safest bet for a drop, especially WW, simply because the last one did $1.45B.

[DAJK]

2 minutes ago, TomThomas said:

Nomadland was probably worse.

I really loved CODA, much more than I enjoyed Nomadland.

[titanic2187]

 

 

 

[SchumacherFTW]

Feel like the idea Zootopia 2 would be bigger than Moana 2 based on the movies box office alone is kinda dumb considering the sheer strength of Moana on streaming. Gets at least 3m hours of play time every week and it's on the Nielsen chart every week without fail

[cannastop]

12 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Feel like the idea Zootopia 2 would be bigger than Moana 2 based on the movies box office alone is kinda dumb considering the sheer strength of Moana on streaming. Gets at least 3m hours of play time every week and it's on the Nielsen chart every week without fail

Moana is bigger than Zootopia on streaming yes. Zootopia is bigger on streaming than Inside Out though. But ultimately you can't give a one-to-one comparison of streaming stats to box office. Otherwise Moana 2 would be guaranteed to make $1 billion Dom and we know that isn't going to happen. 🤪

Edited June 23 by cannastop

[kayumanggi]

Just now, cannastop said:

Moana is bigger than Zootopia on streaming yes. Zootopia is biggest on streaming than Inside Out though. But ultimately you can't give a one-to-one comparison of streaming stats to box office. Otherwise Moana 2 would be guaranteed to make $1 billion Dom and we know that isn't going to happen. 🤪

 

The crazy legs of ZOOTOPIA back in March 2016 is why I think it could be bigger than MOANA II. But both can end up big and I really don't care which one is bigger.

[Torontofan]

6 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

Feel like the idea Zootopia 2 would be bigger than Moana 2 based on the movies box office alone is kinda dumb considering the sheer strength of Moana on streaming. Gets at least 3m hours of play time every week and it's on the Nielsen chart every week without fail

 

also there been hardly any moana products as well 

[DAJK]

Nice to see Bikeriders hit double digits, hope that sticks with actuals.

 

Also really nice to see Fall Guy saving some face by reaching 90M. 100 is out of reach for sure, but after such a disappointing opening I’m glad it had some good legs. I guess 90-100 is the ceiling for these David Leitch movies.

 

And one more thing to add before this thread gets swallowed up by IO2 numbers, I’m in the camp that Moana 2 will outgross Zootopia 2 UNLESS there’s some massive difference in quality (I.e. Zootopia being as good as the first, while Moana 2 has the quality of a DTV sequel with no hit songs). Moana has stuck around in the cultural mind far more than Zootopia has; Zootopia I feel is far more popular in online circles. For now I’d guess 350-400 for Moana, 300-350 for Zootopia. That being said, I’m not entirely confident about Moana’s quality, so for now I’ll temper my expectations and say 280-300 for it.

[Eric is Quiet]

22 minutes ago, Flopped said:

I forgot CODA existed until this thread. Worst BP winner of all time, right? 

Nah.

[JonathanMB]

21 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

 

Magnolia has been around for over 20 years but hasn't really had a lot of hits in the last 13 years and especially the last five, and this just became their biggest hit since Shoplifters in 2018, and will become one of their only $5M+ grossers ever. A pretty big win for them! I hope it has decent legs over the summer (weekday numbers should be fantastic, at least).