Labor Day Weekend Thread | Reagan 525K previews, AfrAId 400K

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

also am I the only one who thinks Mufasa will easily win December?

You are not. Sonic will post strong numbers too though. It's everything else that month that is a question mark (Kraven the Hunter seems like another Morbius/Madame Web waiting to happen and the animated Lord of the Rings definitely doesn't look like something that will play broadly).

[filmnerdjamie]

6 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

also am I the only one who thinks Mufasa will easily win December?

 

Not unlike Aquaman back in Christmas 2018, I expect Sonic 3 to dominate by default.

 

Even more important is the fact that Sonic 3 has the goodwill that Mufasa severely lacks.

[Krissykins]

46 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Is anyone else getting "nonevent" vibes from Venom 3? I dunno, the previous one actually had a hook bringing on a big star ala Woody Harrelson, genuine enthusiasm for this seems low though being the first PG-13 tentpole in a while and a release right before Halloween might prevent too much bleeding.

I got non event vibes for the first two Venom films as well 

[AniNate]

Mufasa's interest base may not be as vocal as Sonic's but it's definitely there, and imo anyone believing otherwise is operating mostly on wishful thinking. Mufasa is the choice most grandparents will make if given, and that's the main factor overlooked in internet discourse.

[Krissykins]

 

Decent hold for Blink Twice (thankfully), excellent for Twisters. 

[James]

13 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Where?

In the official China thread here.

[filmlover]

I don't think the tepid response to the '19 remake will be nearly as detrimental as most think it will be for Mufasa (even if it's obviously not going to quite reach the numbers that did). Just having the words "Lion" and "King" in its title guarantees it will be treated by Disney like a megaevent, unlike the Alice or Maleficent sequels (which were treated like afterthoughts and whose rejection likely didn't come as a surprise even to Disney).

Edited September 1 by filmlover

[AnthonyJPHer]

3 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

 

Not unlike Aquaman back in Christmas 2018, I expect Sonic 3 to dominate by default.

 

Even more important is the fact that Sonic 3 has the goodwill that Mufasa severely lacks.

Aquaman didn’t have competition… like at all. 2018 was kind of weak with options, 2024 is different. There are two options that are extremely similar and might have similar audiences.

 

plus the Lion King brand has proven itself as a money maker regardless of reception, and Sonic isn’t really a big movie franchise 

[AniNate]

I do think Sonic 3 will be big, may very well surpass the last one in admissions with holiday timing. But I don't see either a Sonic increase or Mufasa decrease dramatic enough that would allow for Sonic to overtake Mufasa.

[HummingLemon496]

Will Joker 2 outgross Deadpool 3 globally?

[Ryan C]

8 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

Decent hold for Blink Twice (thankfully), excellent for Twisters. 

 

Not sure if anyone noticed this, but Deadline estimated yesterday that Blink Twice would make $5.2M and now it went down to $4.687M. That's concerning. 

 

It could do better in actuals, but I'm kind of bummed out that it didn't hold as well as it could've. Hopefully this can at least double its budget worldwide. That would be great. 

 

Also, may Twisters keep on playing for the rest of eternity. Glad to see it have an increase from last weekend.

[AniNate]

This Twisters increase probably gonna help it hold on to more theaters when Beetlejuice opens. Would be cool if it could somehow hold strong and surpass Dune, but $270mil would still be a very good domestic finish. Hopefully Uni sees that as enough to make up for the dreadful international performance.

 

 

Edited September 1 by AniNate

[filmlover]

Just now, Ryan C said:

 

Not sure if anyone noticed this, but Deadline estimated yesterday that Blink Twice would make $5.2M and now it went down to $4.687M. That's concerning. 

To be fair, they probably overestimated its overall weekend multiplier initially not taking into account that this is playing more to a "Friday Night" type of crowd.

[filmnerdjamie]

6 minutes ago, AnthonyJPHer said:

Aquaman didn’t have competition… like at all. 2018 was kind of weak with options, 2024 is different. There are two options that are extremely similar and might have similar audiences.

 

plus the Lion King brand has proven itself as a money maker regardless of reception, and Sonic isn’t really a big movie franchise 

 

There were those of us who insisted Aquaman was going to dominate on Day One by that very logic.

 

But make no mistake. There was very much a loud campaign saying how Mary Poppins Returns was going to easily win that Christmas.

 

Mufasa just doesn't have goodwill after how audiences were disappointed by The Lion King, which made it's killer grosses off sheer nostalgia and the goodwill from Fav's The Jungle Book.

 

This is absolutely going to pay for that with considerably lower numbers.

[AniNate]

Blink Twice unfortunately does seem like it's gonna be the major casualty next week, not gonna be kept in 3,000 theaters long only drawing that take. In hindsight maybe they ought to have opened that this weekend so it would've been protected from Beetlejuice drops.

[ringedmortality]

Mary Poppins Returns is underrated.

 

Anyways: Sonic 3 300M DOM club

[filmlover]

Will be interesting to see if anything does well in December besides Mufasa and Sonic, the month is certainly banking on those two carrying the holidays. A Complete Unknown is a bit of a wild card and while I'm sure Nosferatu will be another quality movie from him, it's probably not wise to bet on a Robert Eggers movie being a box office smash. Babygirl could be another The Iron Claw for A24.

[Gavin Feng]

Oppenheimer of 2024 is here. There Will Be Blood, Once Upon a Time in America, Godfather level great. Some even say it's what Coppola wanted to tell but couldn't help himself in Megalopolis.

 

With Anora, American cinema this year is really in the peak of modern days. Make the American Cinema Great Again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ledmonkey96]

Sonic might do well but the combined gross of 1 & 2 is 337 mil dom and 708mil WW. I just can't see it making up the difference unless Mufasa has Solo tier reception.

[AniNate]

Aquaman is a superhero franchise and not comparable, and Mary Poppins is a far less hip and cool Disney IP with youth than The Lion King is, which is still a huge merch mover in all its forms. Mufasa will decrease, but not that much.