Cooper Legion Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 3 minutes ago, harry713 said: Does anyone know what the first film’s 75m DOM adjusts to? Curious what the threshold will be for the sequel to outsell it in tickets sold. ~200 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wattage Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 (edited) Seeing good 100m potential next year but maybe I'm overly optimistic. Movies I'm 100% sure about: Zootopia Avatar Jurassic World Movies I'm fairly confident in: Michael Superman F4 Lilo and Stitch Movies that I wouldn't be shocked if it happened but currently not betting on it just yet: Cap 4 How To Train Your Dragon Snow White F1 Wicked Part 2 (depends on how Part 1 does) Movies that I would've said were an easy win a week ago: Minecraft Edited September 7 by wattage Moved Jurassic World Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emoviefan Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 2 hours ago, thajdikt said: My prediction is that Thunderbolts will open lower than Cap 4 but will make more overall with stronger WOM. Maybe like 60M-70M for Thunderbolts OW and something like 95-105M 4-day for Cap. Yeah Agree. For now it´s one of a kind at least for the MCU. Thunderbolts I think has a bit going for it, and it has that prime MCU date that audiences have been accustomed for MCU movies. Also Florence Pugh. It's going to sure as shit open better than The Fall Guy did this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emoviefan Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 It seems weird that a 100 miilion dollar OW is going to seem slightly underwhelming but that's a us problem. The industry will not feel or report it that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 9 minutes ago, emoviefan said: It seems weird that a 100 miilion dollar OW is going to seem slightly underwhelming but that's a us problem. The industry will not feel or report it that way. $600M DOM was unthinkable a few years back, but it has become more common in recent years thanks to inflation. 100M OW is the new 80M OW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmpalace Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 2 hours ago, Flopped said: Kinda off topic but is The Substance anyone else's most anticipated movie of the year? I hope it finds an audience of some sort. I saw it about two weeks ago and thought it was phenomenal! Currently in spot 2 of my 2024 ranking. It has a runtime of 2,5 hours, yet it never drags. It does become absolutely bonkers in the third act, and I'm sure most of the GA will be thrown off by it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vale9001 Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 (edited) 2 hours ago, wattage said: Seeing good 100m potential next year but maybe I'm overly optimistic. Movies I'm 100% sure about: Zootopia Avatar Jurassic World Movies I'm fairly confident in: Michael Superman F4 Lilo and Stitch Movies that I wouldn't be shocked if it happened but currently not betting on it just yet: Cap 4 How To Train Your Dragon Snow White F1 Wicked Part 2 (depends on how Part 1 does) Movies that I would've said were an easy win a week ago: Minecraft Michael can do very good if the movie Is well made for being liked by fans and can have great legs in that case, but still a 100M+ opening seems very very out of the reach for a musical biopic Edited September 7 by vale9001 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krissykins Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 4 hours ago, Flopped said: Kinda off topic but is The Substance anyone else's most anticipated movie of the year? I hope it finds an audience of some sort. 2 hours ago, filmpalace said: I saw it about two weeks ago and thought it was phenomenal! Currently in spot 2 of my 2024 ranking. It has a runtime of 2,5 hours, yet it never drags. It does become absolutely bonkers in the third act, and I'm sure most of the GA will be thrown off by it. Can’t wait to see The Substance! Loved Revenge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boxofficerules Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 5 hours ago, Flopped said: Kinda off topic but is The Substance anyone else's most anticipated movie of the year? I hope it finds an audience of some sort. I saw The Substance at Frightfest, it's very good, don't know how the GA are going to react to it though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cinema pal Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 3 minutes ago, Boxofficerules said: I saw The Substance at Frightfest, it's very good, don't know how the GA are going to react to it though. It depends on marketing. I don't think Longlegs is very GA friendly movie, but ads did wonders to make it must-see event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boxofficerules Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 5 minutes ago, cinema pal said: It depends on marketing. I don't think Longlegs is very GA friendly movie, but ads did wonders to make it must-see event. The last half hour of The Substance is insane, I can see people sitting in their seats and thinking "what the fuck!" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kon Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 5 hours ago, Cooper Legion said: Neither were gotg in 2014, or captain America in 2011, or thor in 2011, or doctor strange in 2016, or Shang-Chi in 2021, or so on and so on. Don’t really need much pre-existing popularity to open 100M nowadays as long as you’ve got a decent movie, good marketing, and not a big build up of brand damage (the DS2-QM stretch of fiascos is a bit faded now, as well as some D+ stinkers, and DPW has hopefully helped some). We’ll see in time whether they can deliver on the first two Considering the last 100M OW movies have depended on pre-existing popularity, I'm not sure your point is true. Captain America 2011 and Thor 2011 weren't really big in box office, while the other examples were really helped for the MCU brand being strong at that point. I think Captain America 4 will show how strong (or not) the MCU brand is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kon Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 (edited) Double post. Edited September 7 by Kon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cinema pal Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 (edited) 1 hour ago, Boxofficerules said: The last half hour of The Substance is insane, I can see people sitting in their seats and thinking "what the fuck!" If it lives up to the hype I think it'll be ok. I've seen one twitt saying something like "often people oversell and overhype the crazyness and you leave the theatre underwhelmed, but in this case it's the opposite" This person was very happy. But maybe it will be niche. We'll see Edited September 7 by cinema pal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justnumbers Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 5 hours ago, Ryan C said: I checked to see what the Friday-to-Sunday weekend multiplier would be like for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice with both Charlie's early $44M Friday estimate and now the updated $42M. The bad news is that Beetlejuice (unless Saturday goes crazy) is probably not gonna beat IT for the top September opening weekend. The good news is that it should still at the very least hit $100M over three days. Before the second update, Charlie had the film with a $44M opening day open to between $105M-$112M. That would be a Friday-to-Sunday multiplier between 2.387 and 2.546. Now if this ends up hitting $42M and we use those same exact multipliers, we're looking at worst a $100.2M opening. At best, we could be looking at $107M over three days for Beetlejuice Beetlejuice. So even if the update is lower, the chances of $100M is still pretty good now. I probably look really crazy by deeply analyzing a few estimates from one person, but I just really want this movie to hit nine digits over the weekend and it's gonna be really frustrating (even if this movie is doing so much more than we ever could've expected) if it just misses out on that century mark. I sincerely hope that all of this worry can go away by the morning. Take a couple Xanax. It will be gone by the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vafrow Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 5 hours ago, wattage said: Seeing good 100m potential next year but maybe I'm overly optimistic. Movies I'm 100% sure about: Zootopia Avatar Jurassic World Movies I'm fairly confident in: Michael Superman F4 Lilo and Stitch Movies that I wouldn't be shocked if it happened but currently not betting on it just yet: Cap 4 How To Train Your Dragon Snow White F1 Wicked Part 2 (depends on how Part 1 does) Movies that I would've said were an easy win a week ago: Minecraft Another darkhorse for the milestone is FNAF2. The first landed $80M with a day and date release on Peacock. I think the expectation is a decrease of interest for the sequel, as the novelty is gone, but this is a hardcore fanbase. If Universal puts a better product and trailer out there, it can still surprise. That's the beauty of the calendar next year. There's potential surprises throughout the year. There's room for some films to underperform without dragging the year down with it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 9 hours ago, WorkingonaName said: No CBMs between Joker and Doomsday will open to $100M. BTSV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanMB Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 $100M is not quite locked, but I think it's more likely than not now? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emoviefan Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 3 minutes ago, JonathanMB said: $100M is not quite locked, but I think it's more likely than not now? It really depends on today's increase.We are back in school/work mode and the NFL so Sunday will not stay flat with true friday. Say Sunday was 24 m that would mean today would have to be at least 34.5 or so. Doable but not a lock. Fingers crossed but this will still be the 3rd biggest OW of the year so far so nothing to get bummed out about if not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyJPHer Posted September 7 Share Posted September 7 31 minutes ago, JonathanMB said: $100M is not quite locked, but I think it's more likely than not now? 28.5m True Friday. If it hits 35m Saturday and 30m Sunday we should be seeing a 106.5m 3-day weekend. Plus the 13m previews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
