May 4, 2012 Weekend (AVENGERS Opening Discussion): ACTUAL 207.4 mill!!!!

[Noctis]

While I wouldn't be surprised at all (I'm expecting it, actually) to see Catching Fire equal or surpass Hunger Games' opening weekend, but I can't see it surpass its total anymore.

[Magic]

It ain't gonna get the same percentage increase as IM1 to IM2. No way in hell, unless of course they stick it in 3D as a cheap gimmick to boost revenue.

Comparing the percentage increase between a film that made 100M and a film that made 150M+ makes no sense IMO.

[Lordmandeep]

With 160 million it should top 400 million and would be locked for 1 billion WW.Imo the overseas numbers make it an undeniable superhit film.

Edited May 5, 2012 by Lordmandeep

[riczhang]

I think THG has reached it's highest possible audience. I think it's peaked.

Audience wise definitely 50 million tickets DOM is where it's heading, and that's pretty much as saturated as you can get with a movie, but with only $150M for OW, it's still a long ways away from peaking, with the fanbase, and WOM spreading CF can go up to $180-190 IMO.

[Accursed Arachnid!™]

I'm just gonna get rid of any off topic posts, so feel free and waste your time posting them.

(I know, this is off topic...but I'm special)

[druv10]

AA, have you seen it?

[Magic]

I'm just gonna get rid of any off topic posts, so feel free and waste your time posting them.

(I know, this is off topic...but I'm special)

People are always going to talk about other possible huge OW contenders in threads like this. It's inevitable.

[Lordmandeep]

Yeah AA it always happen, people are just wasting some time for more real numbers.

[riczhang]

Yeah AA it always happen, people are just wasting some time for more real numbers.

Shouldn't Nikki have another update by now? She's only updated like 3 times since Midnight, it's actually kinda strange.

[Biggestgeekever]

I'm still confident Avengers is going to be above $70m when it's all said and done. Sellouts are still just unbelievable.

I just have a feeling it will be more like the first two Potters, where the fever pitch happened in the first movie and then it decreased... It seems like it would be impossible to match that hype of the first OW... but we'll see.

I think WOM is quite a bit stronger with Hunger Games than it was for the first Potter, not to mention it doesn't have the whole "kid's movie" stigma to overcome.

I think THG has reached it's highest possible audience. I think it's peaked.

Even if that's the case, I don't see why it won't just become much more frontloaded.

Comparing the percentage increase between a film that made 100M and a film that made 150M+ makes no sense IMO.

HG's OW may be $50m bigger, but it's' total is going to end up ~$80m higher than Iron Man.

200 million, maybe if it is a Summer release, it's Thanksgiving weekend, and I don't think that $200M is possible for a November release, too many people are with family for that to happy, unless Lionsgate can really market it as a family movie. Also, isn't Catching Fire opening on a Wednesday?

It's definitely opening on a Friday, and for the type of film this is, I don't think the time of year really matters.

[iceroll]

I don't think THG will go the route of Harry Potter because wasn't CoS the least well receive book whereas Catching Fire is the best received? Plus when THG released, book sales weren't as high as Harry Potter so there's more potential to grow the fanbase that way.

[Lordmandeep]

I think CF opening will infact be huge and in admissions be only behind TDK and Spider Man 3.Women are just gone crazy over that film and unlike twilight, some guys are as well.

[sharpie]

Could CF/MJ pass DH2's WW opening record? is that basically untouchable?

[Deep Wang]

OK, here is my theater as of 10:30pm2D - 10733D - 1232Total - 2305We have one more show at midnight(in 3D) that had 150 seats left, so if that sells out, we are looking at 2455 in attendance.The Hunger Games - 1984That's almost 500 more tickets sold and a 3D ratio of about 56%. I know this is just one theater out of many, but how in the hell is the number or this only $65ish?Also, we have already sold over 400 tickets for tomorrow.

[Lordmandeep]

Saturday looks to match THG in admissions in my area....Not sure if it will match THG on Saturday night....

[druv10]

OK, here is my theater as of 10:30pm2D - 10733D - 1232Total - 2305We have one more show at midnight(in 3D) that had 150 seats left, so if that sells out, we are looking at 2455 in attendance.The Hunger Games - 1984That's almost 500 more tickets sold and a 3D ratio of about 56%. I know this is just one theater out of many, but how in the hell is the number or this only $65ish?Also, we have already sold over 400 tickets for tomorrow.

Thanks for the update but I am afraid right now. With the midnight I thought 70M OD was locked but thanks for the good news.

[Magic]

Could CF/MJ pass DH2's WW opening record? is that basically untouchable?

Nah. It won't be big enough OS to do that.

[Fake]

Let me remind it again.... No movie has ever done more than 52M business in a single day before. So 70M is definitely not a certainty, however crazy the sellouts are.69-70m is what I expect, may go a million lower or higher.

[RichWS]

The record isn't out of the question yet. If the Friday number is indeed $68M, a 15% Saturday drop and 30% Sunday drop would mean $166M.

[Fake]

Could CF/MJ pass DH2's WW opening record? is that basically untouchable?

I haven't laughed that hard in a month!!