Weekend estimates thread TA 103,052,274!!

[BiffMan]

And so I shall. It will probably cede the #1 weekend title to MIB3. If not, it will definitely lose it to SWATH.

Agreed. It's going to stay steady, and may even impact MIB3's business, but it'll be on it's 4th weekend by then. Even if we saw super soft 35% drops both weekends, that'd take it down to $42m for the 3-day and no way MIB3 does worse than that.

[Harpospoke]

I'm still not entirely convinced these precious screens won't have to share their ratio of screenings with TA, and that's my point. I still think it's on the realm of possibility theaters playing TA, TASM and TDKR at the same time on several locations.

I don't know what your personality type is, but you may be putting yourself into a situation where an amazing box office run by The Avengers will seem "disappointing" to you. Maybe you're the type that can get your hopes up and not be bothered by it if things don't work out. I'm the type that usually keeps my expectations low so I can be pleasantly surprised.

Of course the connection is there, it still sold more tickets than any movie from the last decade bar two others. And what does "suspicious" mean in this context anyway? Are you personally annoyed that it did so well or something?

It makes it sound like a TDK fan trying to find some way to "beat Avengers". First there is supposed interest in how many tickets sold...then immediately a desire to compare it with....the third highest ticket seller of the last decade? O...kay...

And there was certainly very very little interest in how many tickets TDK sold in 2008 when it was passing movies on the all time list that sold more tickets. Now it's time to talk about tickets sold when a different movie is pulling that trick?

Heck...at least TA is making more money per ticket on a largely voluntary basis. People do have to choose to see it in 3D....thus indicating they think it is worth paying more for. Just passing other movies due to inflation alone is not nearly as impressive.

[Harpospoke]

James Cameron in particular really likes to use the same actors. It seems to me, if you were to watch Aliens, somebody from that movie has been in another one of his movies.Terminator-Michael Biehn, Bill Paxton and Lance Henrickson.Terminator 2-Janette Goldstein,Michael Biehn(in the director's cut)The Abyss-Michael BiehnTrue Lies-Bill PaxtonTitanic-Bill Paxton, Janette GoldsteinAvatar-Sigorney Weaver

Don't forget:Terminator-Arnold/Linda HamiltonTerminator 2-Arnold/Linda HamiltonTrue Lies-Arnold

[Rthmessiah]

What kind of drop for Monday? Can it hit 10M? It requires 67.7% drop from Sunday. Rth will probably give us a number later.

Most likely between 7-8m, a 2nd monday outside of any form of holidays pretty good

[code65536]

Rallax is right. I work at a movie theater too. THG is on the smallest screen right now with about 5 showings. I expect it to either leave entirely or share a screen with another movie to make room for The Dictator and Battleship this week. The fact its lasted this long is a testament to its late legs and the fact that April was very weak. That won't be the case for The Avengers with big movies coming out every week that will demand screens and push TA from more and more screens and theaters.

The theatre that I usually go to (14 screens) just posted their showtimes for the upcoming week. Before this, THG had been relegated to one of their small screens with 4 showtimes. In the upcoming week, THG still has a screen all to itself and still has 4 showtimes.To make way for the three new openers, the theatre is dropping 21JS (yea, that's still playing), The Artist (it was one of those that participated in this week's re-expansion of that dud), The Raven, Pirates, and The Lucky One. THG doesn't need to outrun than the TC bear--it only needs to outrun the other victims. And for Memorial Day, the theatre will probably sacrifice 5YE, Safe, and Cabin (yes, Cabin--by far the best film of 2012--is still playing here this coming weekend, having outlasted five other films that were released at the same time or later). Unfortunately, THG will probably bite the dust after Memorial Day at this particular theatre (unless TLAM falls behind it after two more weekends), but at the larger megaplexes, it can probably hold on longer. Edited May 15, 2012 by Crake

[Chewy]

Most likely between 7-8m, a 2nd monday outside of any form of holidays pretty good

Pretty good number

[Olive]

Most likely between 7-8m, a 2nd monday outside of any form of holidays pretty good

It drops like SM1, which is amazing.SM1‘s 2nd Monday dopped 75.2%

[ladyevenstar22]

i don't work in a theatre but still i trust the opinions of those who know/participate in the behind the scenes at a theatre rather than crazy hopes, nothing wrong with your crazy hôpe jack but if you'd temper it with realistic expectations it wouldnt be half as annoying !anyway i'm off to watch sunday's episode of GoT, behave ok...think i'll sit the next few days out of the box office discussion , its not the only place to go chat on this site luckily

[lab276]

It makes it sound like a TDK fan trying to find some way to "beat Avengers". First there is supposed interest in how many tickets sold...then immediately a desire to compare it with....the third highest ticket seller of the last decade? O...kay...

And there was certainly very very little interest in how many tickets TDK sold in 2008 when it was passing movies on the all time list that sold more tickets. Now it's time to talk about tickets sold when a different movie is pulling that trick?

Heck...at least TA is making more money per ticket on a largely voluntary basis. People do have to choose to see it in 3D....thus indicating they think it is worth paying more for. Just passing other movies due to inflation alone is not nearly as impressive.

That's no reason to not discuss ticket sales. So it wasn't a talking point in 2008 (not that I'd know since I wasn't tracking then, nor can you prove it now that the BOM forums are gone), why can't it be now?

[skykisser]

Plugging in the percentage drops of other SH films for TA vs TA actual percentage drops (yellow x line), it's clear TA is tracking closest to IM, Thor and IM2. It remains to be seen if past day 20 it will follow IM or Thor more.

I used an optimistic 8M for Monday. Click on graph for clearer image.

Edited May 15, 2012 by skykisser

[ZattMurdock]

I don't know what your personality type is, but you may be putting yourself into a situation where an amazing box office run by The Avengers will seem "disappointing" to you. Maybe you're the type that can get your hopes up and not be bothered by it if things don't work out. I'm the type that usually keeps my expectations low so I can be pleasantly surprised.

It wouldn't seem disappoint to me if TA would stop selling movie tickets today, but I get what you're saying and will stop posting my unadvised wishful thinking guesses. I didn't realize that bother people so much until now.

i don't work in a theatre but still i trust the opinions of those who know/participate in the behind the scenes at a theatre rather than crazy hopes, nothing wrong with your crazy hôpe jack but if you'd temper it with realistic expectations it wouldnt be half as annoying !anyway i'm off to watch sunday's episode of GoT, behave ok...think i'll sit the next few days out of the box office discussion , its not the only place to go chat on this site luckily

Oh, okay. As I said, I won't try to predict or guess anything anymore. Whatever I wish this movie can make, I'll keep it to myself. I'm sorry for annoying you and others with my crazy hopes. Have fun with GoT, that's an awesome episode.

[FTF]

What I'm predicting:...June 1st:1) The Avengers2) Snow White and the Huntsman3) MIB4) Battleship...

lol, I'm sorry, but how is this going to happen? What are you predicting SWATH to open to and what number will TA and MIB3 make this weekend? I don't even want to ask about the rest yet. Edited May 15, 2012 by FTF

[CloneWars]

lol, I'm sorry, but how is this going to happen? What are you predicting SWATH to open to and what number will TA and MIB3 make this weekend? I don't even want to ask about the rest yet.

Ignore jacksparrow. It is obvious that he is new to BO and hasn't learned the ropes yet of how legs work. Based off his predictions, I would say that TA is the first film he has ever followed.

[FTF]

Ignore jacksparrow. It is obvious that he is new to BO and hasn't learned the ropes yet of how legs work. Based off his predictions, I would say that TA is the first film he has ever followed.

Ah, well you've got to start somewhere. I remember back in 2008 after TDK's first Monday # came out I was a crazy fanboy as well and totally jumped on the TDK over Titanic bandwagon

[Harpospoke]

That's no reason to not discuss ticket sales. So it wasn't a talking point in 2008 (not that I'd know since I wasn't tracking then, nor can you prove it now that the BOM forums are gone), why can't it be now?

No reason to not talk about it. But pairing it up with TDK makes it look like an agenda. "Will Avengers sell more tickets than TDK?". It comes off as an attempt to downplay what The Avengers is doing.Why would TDK be in that conversation? It's not the ticket king. It's not like TDK doesn't sit above other movies that sold more tickets too. A poster who takes that route better also be willing to downplay what TDK did as well. Edited May 15, 2012 by Harpospoke

[Chewy]

No reason to not talk about it. But pairing it up with TDK makes it look like an agenda. "Will Avengers sell more tickets than TDK?". It comes off as an attempt to downplay what The Avengers is doing.Why would TDK be in that conversation? It's not the ticket king. It's not like TDK doesn't sit above other movies that sold more tickets too. A poster who takes that route better also be willing to downplay what TDK did as well.

TDK is in the conversation because it's a recent superhero movie that sold a lot of tickets

[blackspider]

TDK is in the conversation because it's a recent superhero movie that sold a lot of tickets

Exactly, one of the main things that we do as BO followers is compare current films to previous ones. If you're getting compared to TDK, you must be doing something right. No ones trying to undermine TA's success, because it is pretty much impossible at this point, just putting things in perspective.

[Deep Wang]

Ignore jacksparrow. It is obvious that he is new to BO and hasn't learned the ropes yet of how legs work. Based off his predictions, I would say that TA is the first film he has ever followed.

That is true, and I am by no means an expert.Sorry Jack!

[blackspider]

Jacksparrow just needs to learn the apects and realities of BO. He means well but if he doesn't learn how this stuff works, he'll lose more and more credibility as a poster. It sounds harsh, but it's true. I mean he can't honestly expect TA to be #1 the weekend Snow White comes out and in the top 5 through all of June. Even it being #1 against MIB 3 is an extreme stretch.

[lab276]

No reason to not talk about it. But pairing it up with TDK makes it look like an agenda. "Will Avengers sell more tickets than TDK?". It comes off as an attempt to downplay what The Avengers is doing.Why would TDK be in that conversation? It's not the ticket king. It's not like TDK doesn't sit above other movies that sold more tickets too. A poster who takes that route better also be willing to downplay what TDK did as well.

Well, TDK is the current comic book admissions king, so it should be brought up from that standpoint.