JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Incarnadine]

I disagree with Hellbuster. What if suddenly the exchange rate changes abruptly? Why should that be a reason for us to claim that a movie surpassed another one? Exchange rates don't reflect any change in moviegoing activity within the country. They are a factor that is weighed into the equation depsite being irrelevant to any of comparisons that we are trying to make.

 

Obviously, for international comparisons the situation is different, there must be a standard to which all the others are compared, but choosing the dollar is very arbitrary (as would be if we chose any other currency). The main problem is that there can be ridiculously huge variation in exchange rates, but I guess that's just one of many problems that cannot be resolved, unless someone comes up with a golden standard that everything else is compared to.

In a perfect system admissions would be the true standard, but for now only a few markets report accurate admission numbers. Dollars is probably the next best since the majority of movies we track are North American made and financed.

Using local currency isn't much different than Dollars when it comes down to it, so many things change currency numbers.

Just look as Titanic and Frozen in Japan, Frozen has just edged past in both admissions and dollars, but Titanic is still about 5 billion ahead in Yen.

[Murgatroyd]

Now onto more happy topics, like Murgatroyd's charts. Those are always great to see each week. Can we expect them soon?

 

 

It just keeps going, and going, and going...

 

Even without the video release, beating SA wouldn't be certain.  With it, I'm confident in saying "not happening".

 

Six more weeks.  25B is virtually certain.  How much it'll get beyond that is anyone's guess.

 

[Quigley]

I think the drop may be more than 10% this weekend. But even -15% would be less than a 10% drop from weekend 11.

 

However, that Wednesday number is very low,

Edited June 4, 2014 by Quigley

[Incarnadine]

I think the drop may be more than 10% this weekend. But even -15% would be less than a 10% drop from weekend 11.

 

However, that Wednesday number is very low,

Weekday numbers have been pretty weird the last couple of weeks. Wednesday is low, but Monday was high at just -10% from that really inflated Monday last week.

I'll be happy if it stays anywhere over 6m. Just looking at what I just said makes me smile. Just think about it, 6m 13th weekend in Japan. We've come to expect such huge numbers that some would call that disappointing, even though that would easily be enough to finish #1 again and continue its streak of record setting weekends, probably close to double the current 13th weekend record.

[Quigley]

I'll be happy if it stays anywhere over 6m.

[...]

We've come to expect such huge numbers that some would call that disappointing. [...]

 

A 10% decrease from weekend 11 (to 630M yen) would be OK for me, but not any lower than that.

[Rsyu]

isn't Wednesday discount day for women? 

[Incarnadine]

A 10% decrease from weekend 11 (to 630M yen) would be OK for me, but not any lower than that.

Honestly, I'm thinking we might be in for the first fairly significant drop to maybe 5.5m, although I think there is still a good chance it holds over 6m.

It has to happen eventually and this weeks numbers seem to be pointing that way. Still, not counting Frozen itself, only 3 movies in 2014 have managed to open higher than 5.5m.

Now that I've said that just watch Frozen stay over 7m.

[Queen Elsa Arendelle]

Disappointing numbers? really? in its 13th week! I think it is awesome! 

Edited June 4, 2014 by Queen Elsa Arendelle

[FrozenUnicorn]

I REALLY hope the DVD release can be delayed somehow. This film deserves to make as much money as it can, so if there's even a chance, a CHANCE, that it could beat SA and DH2 WW, why doesn't Disney do the smart thing and let it rise to that milestone? Frozen's run has been PHENOMENAL in Japan, and I feel like cutting its run short would be the worst possible thing.

[Dalek]

Preparing a movie's disk release involves a lot of time and money well in advance. This release date was probably set internally before the movie even opened in the country, and changing it at this (extremely) late juncture amounts to scrapping huge portions of that investment and potentially angering business partners and investors. A few potential broken records aren't really worth that to Disney.

[Murgatroyd]

A question has occurred to me:

 

Has any movie, anywhere, ever, been #1 in a country for its entire theatrical run?

[Rsyu]

Preparing a movie's disk release involves a lot of time and money well in advance. This release date was probably set internally before the movie even opened in the country, and changing it at this (extremely) late juncture amounts to scrapping huge portions of that investment and potentially angering business partners and investors. A few potential broken records aren't really worth that to Disney.

 

It's all speculation but if said investment put into the DVD release is smaller than the amount Disney is set to lose through releasing it, then delaying it is the rational option. A multinational company like Disney should have the capacity to say no to a business partner whether they like it or not. 

[Rsyu]

A question has occurred to me:

 

Has any movie, anywhere, ever, been #1 in a country for its entire theatrical run?

 

Pulling the number one movie out of the theatres is just irrational. Another unprecedented title for Frozen. 

[Mojoguy]

Frozen was given an extra two week run in theaters in China because of how well it was doing. A few more weeks in theaters in Japan wouldn't be unheard of.

Edited June 5, 2014 by Mojoguy

[Boxx93]

If Frozen is still at the number 1 spot by the time July gets here, japanese theatre owners are going to beg Disney to delay the Blu Ray a few months, I am very sure of that.

 

I mean come on, Frozen is a gold mine for the theatre owners right now, they are not going let Disney to kill the golden goose that easily.

Edited June 5, 2014 by Boxx93 of Winterfell

[Annayya]

Preparing a movie's disk release involves a lot of time and money well in advance. This release date was probably set internally before the movie even opened in the country, and changing it at this (extremely) late juncture amounts to scrapping huge portions of that investment and potentially angering business partners and investors. A few potential broken records aren't really worth that to Disney.

 

Post poning a DVD and Blu-ray release date is not hard or unheard of by a studio.

It happened in USA also for several releases. I remember pre-ordering a movie on Amazon and I got an email saying that the studio post poned the release by 2 months or so and I couldn't do shit about it.

 

I can't remember the name of the movie but it was a hit movie that made over $500 million WW. I have a feeling it was Despicable me or some other animated movie. I can't remember now. By the time the Blu-ray officially released it was leaked on all the torrent sites for months.

 

Anyways, the point is that delaying a release happened several times in the past. To this date we still have studios pushing an entire theatrical release (GI Joe Retaliation) worldwide by several months to over a year just for stupid reasons. They sometimes even announce it just about a month before the release. What were they thinking when they delayed GI Joe Retaliation release by nine months which was initially set to open in a month from when the announcement was made. So anything is possible

Edited June 5, 2014 by Annayya

[Rudolf]

Preparing a movie's disk release involves a lot of time and money well in advance. This release date was probably set internally before the movie even opened in the country, and changing it at this (extremely) late juncture amounts to scrapping huge portions of that investment and potentially angering business partners and investors. A few potential broken records aren't really worth that to Disney.

They only have to store the media for a few weeks and postpone everythink. The record then helps later to sell the stored goods.

[Ray]

Preparing a movie's disk release involves a lot of time and money well in advance. This release date was probably set internally before the movie even opened in the country, and changing it at this (extremely) late juncture amounts to scrapping huge portions of that investment and potentially angering business partners and investors. A few potential broken records aren't really worth that to Disney.

 

This.

 

 

It's all speculation but if said investment put into the DVD release is smaller than the amount Disney is set to lose through releasing it, then delaying it is the rational option. A multinational company like Disney should have the capacity to say no to a business partner whether they like it or not. 

 

Most everyone here seems to be estimating that Frozen would sacrifice at least (the equivalent of) $50 million by ending the theatrical run on July 16th. The home video marketing budget (which will advertise the Blu-ray, DVD, Digital, and On Demand/Rental options) is likely comparable to that number, though perhaps less since it's just Japan. That's not enough of a tradeoff to justify re-rendering and re-recording commercials, redesigning and reprinting millions of posters and store displays, re-coordinating related merchandise launches, canceling or delaying contractual shipping arrangements and store shelf allocations and even cross promotions with other companies, and of course paying for the labor and overtime to do all these things, which also diverts those workers and their salaries from working on other marketing campaigns that they were supposed to be working on by that point, and causing a snowball effect.

 

Much of that budget will probably be spent on actual airtime, which you wouldn't think would be affected -- at least in the US, let's say you get a 30-second slot for a commercial during primetime. $100k for a lesser watched program, $500k for your bigger shows. And that's per 30 seconds. Multiply that by hundreds or more of commercials on network television for a movie release. You might figure, "Well, if they delay it, then they'll just pay that $100k per commercial for commercials a few months down the road instead of in mid-July." Problem is, they're probably already contractually obligated to that airtime by this point, assuming they were responsible in planning this marketing campaign. "Just use that airtime to market some of their other DVDs or theatrical releases." Problem is, it's not in the budget for those other campaigns. And even if they did find other Disney releases to promote during that airtime, now they have to buy up additional airtime later in the year. And while I'm on the subject of TV commercials, a single 30-second spot during the Super Bowl cost $4.5 million. Granted no single spot in Japan costs anywhere near that, but the point is demand and audience -- you've got to figure rates will rise during that prime summer vacation time. And again, that's per ad spot. Multiply by hundreds throughout the campaign.

 

No company, not even the almighty Disney, can simply flip a switch and release a movie on home video. The wheels start turning well in advance. Why do you think that, even though The Little Mermaid Blu-ray came out in October 2013, and despite Disney becoming aware of the numerous errors by August and pressing corrected discs by September, Disney still shipped the erroneous discs in October and indicated that replacement discs shouldn't be expected in consumer hands until November? It's because there was no way to repackage millions of discs within 6 weeks of release, and a delay was completely out of the question and not worth it.

 

 

Post poning a DVD and Blu-ray release date is not hard or unheard of by a studio.

It happened in USA also for several releases. I remember pre-ordering a movie on Amazon and I got an email saying that the studio post poned the release by 2 months or so and I couldn't do shit about it.

 

I can't remember the name of the movie but it was a hit movie that made over $500 million WW. I have a feeling it was Despicable me or some other animated movie. I can't remember now. By the time the Blu-ray officially released it was leaked on all the torrent sites for months.

 

Anyways, the point is that delaying a release happened several times in the past. To this date we still have studios pushing an entire theatrical release (GI Joe Retaliation) worldwide by several months to over a year just for stupid reasons. They sometimes even announce it just about a month before the release. What were they thinking when they delayed GI Joe Retaliation release by nine months which was initially set to open in a month from when the announcement was made. So anything is possible

 

Yes, delays happen, but usually only in extreme circumstances. If there's a problem somewhere in the production flow, then they have no choice but to delay. And even then, those delays cause the release to go over budget.

 

Don't get me wrong, people, I would love to see this Blu-ray/DVD release delayed, so that Frozen can enjoy the "extended" (even though it should be a "normal") theatrical run and retain some hope of surpassing Spirited Away in yen. I WANT to see it happen. But with the massive marketing campaign associated with media releases, particularly one as high-profile as Frozen, the wheels on this likely started turning right around the time Frozen hit Japanese theaters, perhaps even well BEFORE that. Any delay would be extremely costly and impractical. Just because Disney is a multi-billion dollar corporation doesn't mean they can throw away tens of millions of dollars on redoing a marketing campaign. That's irresponsible, wasteful, and not fair to shareholders.

 

Now, if there was concrete evidence suggesting that Disney would be forfeiting $100m, $150m, etc. (even concrete evidence of $75m might be sufficient) by pulling it from theaters in mid-July, a delay might be costly... but it'd be a worthy tradeoff. As it stands, Disney might not even be convinced that $50m beyond July 16th is guaranteed. But given the summer timing, home video sales and rentals ARE guaranteed, especially for a film as successful as Frozen.

Edited June 5, 2014 by Ray

[rhfqkddl45]

Thursday 6/5 2:30pm Admissions [ Last Wk - Today ]

 

* 4 Chains

toho....4513--3436 -24%

109......990---818 -18%

Kinezo...900---782 -13%

Movix...1534--1336 -13%

 

total...7937--6372 -19.8%

[rhfqkddl45]

This Saturday 06/07 Seats Count (Last Week-This Week)

 

*TOHO total...141,385--130,225 

Jp dub......102480--100078 

3d Jp dub....14403---11766 

eng..........8935-----7710

S-A..........5999-----5497

3d eng.......4867-----3200

tcx dub......2412-----1206

3d Atmos eng.2289------768

 

*Kinezo total...38,654--29,886

Jp dub.....31152--24101

3d Jp dub...2910---3214

eng.........3538---1914

3d eng......1054----657

 

 

*LABAS Post

MOVIX席数　　5/31（土）→6/7（土）　
　　　　　　 SEATS
アナ雪　　53,727　 　→　51,220　 　W13

 

 

 

*Toho+kinezo+movix... 233,766---211,331

 

Edited June 5, 2014 by Hans13