JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[LPLC]

When could Demon Slayer beat Spirited Away ? And how much Demon Slayer could reach ? $275M possible ?

[Legion Again]

19 minutes ago, LPLC said:

When could Demon Slayer beat Spirited Away ? And how much Demon Slayer could reach ? $275M possible ?

Could happen as early as mid Dec.    

 

Seem likely to pull somewhere between 330-450M in Japan at this rate

[LPLC]

20 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

Could happen as early as mid Dec.    

 

Seem likely to pull somewhere between 330-450M in Japan at this rate

But is this lock for you that Demon Slayer will beat SA ? Because for me it's not lock at all, maybe we can see big drop next weeks like -40% or something like that

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, LPLC said:

But is this lock for you that Demon Slayer will beat SA ? Because for me it's not lock at all, maybe we can see big drop next weeks like -40% or something like that

I don’t want to debate the semantics of “locked,” but it’s extremely likely.

[LPLC]

3 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

I don’t want to debate the semantics of “locked,” but it’s extremely likely.

Ok I understand but what is the minimum locked actually ? Some people says that Demon Slayer could surpass $300M In Japan but for me it seems inconceivable

[Legion Again]

16 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Ok I understand but what is the minimum locked actually ? Some people says that Demon Slayer could surpass $300M In Japan but for me it seems inconceivable

I just told you that in my opinion it was heading towards 330-450M in Japan. I’m not sure what more you want.

[LPLC]

4 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

I just told you that in my opinion it was heading towards 330-450M in Japan. I’m not sure what more you want.

Impossible I think you overestimate Demon Slayer, If it reach $250M it will be already really really good

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Impossible I think you overestimate Demon Slayer, If it reach $250M it will be already really really good

 

 

I guess you aren't paying close attention, or are being pessimistic for pessimism’s sake. ~$200 by this Sunday, $250 by Thanksgiving (probably several days before), and there’s a whole lot of runway after that in a market like Japan.

[Jamiem]

Demon Slayer was always going to be big (particularly) because it’s tying into the tv show directly, I’m shocked at how leggy it is so far (and that’s saying something for the Japanese market)

 

It could be the top movie WW this year which would be a huge considering for the last couple of months it’s seemed like China was a lock to have one of their films at the top of the charts for the first time. 

[shachi86]

OK, what's the absolute ceiling here? Apparently the manga sold 75 million copies? But if 75 million people went to see the movie that would be insane! It's 60% of Japan's population and average ticket price in Japan last year was ￥1,340 which would translate to ￥100.5b or $960m. I find that scenario highly unlikely.

 

In North America, Titanic reportedly had estimated admissions of 128 million, which at the time was 42% of the population of US and Canada, so applying that percentage to Japan's current population gives us 52 million or ￥70b ($670m), which still seems way too big.

 

Perhaps North America The Force Awakens level? Estimated admissions of 108 million, 30% of US and Canada population at the time, which applying to Japan's current population gives 37 million, or ￥50b ($480m). Is that starting to seem reasonable?

[LPLC]

1 hour ago, WandaLegion said:

 

 

I guess you aren't paying close attention, or are being pessimistic for pessimism’s sake. ~$200 by this Sunday, $250 by Thanksgiving (probably several days before), and there’s a whole lot of runway after that in a market like Japan.

$250M by thanksgiving in 3 weeks ? it would be incredible 

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, LPLC said:

$250M by thanksgiving in 3 weeks ? it would be incredible 

It would be kind of slow.    
 

Nov 8 Corpse currently projects ~$200M off a 50M week. That’s holiday boosted, so give it a 40% drop is 230 Nov 15, then a 33% drop 250 Nov 22.   
 

Even if you give it a 50% drop then a 40% drop (!) that’s 240M on Nov 22 and 250 before Nov 29.

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, shachi86 said:

OK, what's the absolute ceiling here? Apparently the manga sold 75 million copies? But if 75 million people went to see the movie that would be insane! It's 60% of Japan's population and average ticket price in Japan last year was ￥1,340 which would translate to ￥100.5b or $960m. I find that scenario highly unlikely.

 

In North America, Titanic reportedly had estimated admissions of 128 million, which at the time was 42% of the population of US and Canada, so applying that percentage to Japan's current population gives us 52 million or ￥70b ($670m), which still seems way too big.

 

Perhaps North America The Force Awakens level? Estimated admissions of 108 million, 30% of US and Canada population at the time, which applying to Japan's current population gives 37 million, or ￥50b ($480m). Is that starting to seem reasonable?

 

Important to keep in mind: There are 75 Million Volumes sold so far. But Demon Slayer has (so far) 22 volumes out there with the final one coming in December. So its ofc not the case that 75 Million Individual Japanese have bought those volumes, but a lot of the readers have bought these 22 volumes each so the numbers skyrocket if tons of people do that.

[shachi86]

48 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Important to keep in mind: There are 75 Million Volumes sold so far. But Demon Slayer has (so far) 22 volumes out there with the final one coming in December. So its ofc not the case that 75 Million Individual Japanese have bought those volumes, but a lot of the readers have bought these 22 volumes each so the numbers skyrocket if tons of people do that.

Fair enough!

[Legion Again]

I think ¥50B is not too far from a reasonable “ceiling” though. While keeping in mind that I might take the under on ¥40B for now.

[pepsa]

2 hours ago, LPLC said:

$250M by thanksgiving in 3 weeks ? it would be incredible 

If the movie hits  $200m this weekend it will probably be comming off a 16m + weekend. Going by that you could asume that next weekend it will be over 225m so at this pace 300m is probably the low end at this point.

[XXR vs XXR]

Thinking of making a club....

 

How about....

Demon Slayer (Japan USD) > Inside Out (Domestic USD)

👀

Edited November 2, 2020 by VenomXXR

[Brainbug]

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Thinking of making a club....

 

How about....

Demon Slayer (Japan USD) > Inside Out (Domestic USD)

👀

 

Go for it. Id join. Its ludicrous but that is also the world id use for Demon Slayers run so far.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, shachi86 said:

Apparently the manga sold 75 million copies?

Ok that is a serious number. Is it confirmed that this is Japan only?

[charlie Jatinder]

5 hours ago, Brainbug said:

but a lot of the readers have bought these 22 volumes each so the numbers skyrocket if tons of people do that.

Ok that changes everything. And now its nothing.