JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[mfantin65]

109Last Sat  12698Sun 16398This Sat  12743Sun  14747 so 29636 v.s 27490 = 92.7 %

that's dead on in line w toho. Its coin toss for a weekend increase.

[edroger3]

Domestic:  $398,912,000  36.4% + Foreign:  $698,400,000  63.6% = Worldwide:  $1,097,312,000

Frozen up 10% in 19th domestic weekend. 400M$ locked?

[LABAS]

Frozen up 10% in 19th domestic weekend. 400M$ locked?

That is for sure. Disney will put Frozen in the theaters at least until it passes 400M.

If necessary, it can double feature with CA2 as Tangled did with Car2 to pass 200M.

[Tower]

Frozen up 10% in 19th domestic weekend. 400M$ locked?

 

Of course it's locked, Disney isn't going to pull it from theatres just before 400M, they will make sure it gets there.

[catlover]

Frozen up 10% in 19th domestic weekend. 400M$ locked?

 

That is for sure. Disney will put Frozen in the theaters at least until it passes 400M.

If necessary, it can double feature with CA2 as Tangled did with Car2 to pass 200M.

 

I think this weekend's increase happened because of the double feature with CA2. It will still have dollar theater expansion, so 400M is locked. Although for me, it has been locked for months, even with the big drops after the DVD release.

[Incarnadine]

I think this weekend's increase happened because of the double feature with CA2. It will still have dollar theater expansion, so 400M is locked. Although for me, it has been locked for months, even with the big drops after the DVD release.

I really doubt that, unless the double feature was just 3 or 4 theaters. A true DF would have seen a bump close to a million rather than a few thousand.

[catlover]

I really doubt that, unless the double feature was just 3 or 4 theaters. A true DF would have seen a bump close to a million rather than a few thousand.

 

You're probably right. The bump from DF should have been much bigger than that. What caused the increase than? Is it possible that the DF was indeed just 3 or 4 theaters?

[Omni]

Nah, after a collapse happens, animated films being in a few hundred theatres tend to stabilise and get very tiny drops or even slight increases. Frozen should have a bunch of #K weekends and keep its PTA average close to 1000 for a few weeks. Will get to 402+ even without any DF.

[cremino]

Corpse

 

Weekend Estimates [04/05-06]

01 (01) ¥869 million ($8.5 million), -02%, Frozen (Disney) Week 4
02 (02) ¥175 million ($1.7 million), -37%, Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho) Week 5
03 (03) ¥169 million ($1.6 million), -36%, Heisei Rider vs. Showa Rider: Kamen Rider Taisen feat. Super Sentai (Toei) Week 2
04 (04) ¥119 million ($1.1 million), -27%, The Snow White Murder Case (Shochiku) Week 2
05 (05) ¥101 million ($985,000), -35%, Team Batista: Kerberos's Final Portrait (Toho) Week 2
06 (06) ¥60 million ($580,000), -43%, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox) Week 3
07 (--) ¥58 million ($560,000), 0, One Third (Kadokawa) NEW
08 (07) ¥51 million ($490,000), -44%, Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 (Toei) Week 4
09 (08) ¥47 million ($450,000), -33%, God's Medical Records 2 (Toho) Week 3
10 (--) ¥35 million ($330,000), 0, Cherry Blossoms Bloom (Toei) NEW
11 (09) ¥26 million ($240,000), -35%, Silver Spoon (Toho) Week 5
12 (11) ¥18 million ($170,000), -50%, Saving Mr. Banks (Disney) Week 3
13 (10) ¥17 million ($160,000), -52%, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros.) Week 6

Weekend estimates are given with percentage changes in admissions, so having to adjust to ticket price changes has never been a problem since they've been the same since the early 1990's. To account for the tax hike, I basically just adjusted the ticket price by +4/8% depending on which demographics each film has been attracting the most.

On avg., ticket prices rose ~7.5% after Tuesday's consumption tax increase (5% to 8%), but increasing everything by that figure probably isn't going to be accurate given the different demographics for each film. And in the end, that ~7.5% increase should drop a couple points since discounts should become more popular.

[mfantin65]

Corpse

Weekend Estimates [04/05-06]

01 (01) ¥869 million ($8.5 million), -02%, Frozen (Disney) Week 4

02 (02) ¥175 million ($1.7 million), -37%, Doraemon: Nobita's Great Demon - Peko and the Exploration Party (Toho) Week 5

03 (03) ¥169 million ($1.6 million), -36%, Heisei Rider vs. Showa Rider: Kamen Rider Taisen feat. Super Sentai (Toei) Week 2

04 (04) ¥119 million ($1.1 million), -27%, The Snow White Murder Case (Shochiku) Week 2

05 (05) ¥101 million ($985,000), -35%, Team Batista: Kerberos's Final Portrait (Toho) Week 2

06 (06) ¥60 million ($580,000), -43%, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (Fox) Week 307 (--) ¥58 million ($560,000), 0, One Third (Kadokawa) NEW

08 (07) ¥51 million ($490,000), -44%, Pretty Cure All Stars: New Stage 3 (Toei) Week 4

09 (08) ¥47 million ($450,000), -33%, God's Medical Records 2 (Toho) Week 310 (--) ¥35 million ($330,000), 0, Cherry Blossoms Bloom (Toei) NEW

11 (09) ¥26 million ($240,000), -35%, Silver Spoon (Toho) Week 5

12 (11) ¥18 million ($170,000), -50%, Saving Mr. Banks (Disney) Week 3

13 (10) ¥17 million ($160,000), -52%, The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug (Warner Bros.) Week 6

Weekend estimates are given with percentage changes in admissions, so having to adjust to ticket price changes has never been a problem since they've been the same since the early 1990's. To account for the tax hike, I basically just adjusted the ticket price by +4/8% depending on which demographics each film has been attracting the most.

On avg., ticket prices rose ~7.5% after Tuesday's consumption tax increase (5% to 8%), but increasing everything by that figure probably isn't going to be accurate given the different demographics for each film. And in the end, that ~7.5% increase should drop a couple points since discounts should become more popular.

I understand it was part tax part theater hike, 100 yen flat increase across the board? Frozen ave ticket price was 12.30 last weekend. 100 yen would be slightly over 8.0%. 9% for ladies day, some higher tix sell then. 10% if it mostly children or the 1st of the month day. Looks close though. Final numbers were higher than estimates the last weeks. Hopefully it comes in at 8.7m for the record books.

btw. The yen lost 1% against the dollar the past week. Take a few steps forward and get set one back. Such is life!

Just like the last 3 years, all movies down 25-50%. Makes Frozens future legs mas fuerte

With all the other movies gross' so low, why isnt frozen in many more theaters?

Edited April 6, 2014 by mfantin65

[Incarnadine]

That -2% looks even more impressive when all the other movies dropped -27% to -52%

[mfantin65]

That -2% looks even more impressive when all the other movies dropped -27% to -52%

yup. Tempting to lock 150 after seeing that. Ill wait until wed numbers. Maybe sunday ;-)

[seduh]

amazing run for frozen! what a way to finish it's OS run. It'smaking lots of money, i think $100 is a lock, $125 very likely $150 posible, + $150 is becoming a real posibility!

[mfantin65]

Labas said there is one more day of spring break. The evening should be light though. The first SB monday saw a 42% bump. I say tomorrow will only have a 20% bump.a good hold would be a 25% drop from the first monday, an average of 9-10% per week.Thats 15k toho plus the 20% bump. Anything higher will be huge!We want to see-18,000 toho. 12.5k-15k still isnt a bad number, representing a 15-18% 3 week average drop.9,500 for the 230 numberDont compare to last monday's once in 20 year price hike bump. Will be depressing.Giddy up!

[Ray]

How much did Ponyo earn, converted to US dollars? Someone posted a list here before that said 156m, BOM says 164m... a fairly large discrepancy. Just wondering which number Frozen would need to pass.

[Boxx93]

Still sticking with my Spirited Away prediction...

[edroger3]

Deadline.com report that, according to Disney, Frozen stand at 75,1M$ in Japan. I think that Disney reports a lower figure in order to update again at mid-week (700M$ OS or 1,1B$ WW) so keep Frozen (so also 'Disney' and also 'CA2') in the foreground as much as possible. Everything is marketing for Disney.

[mfantin65]

Deadline.com report that, according to Disney, Frozen stand at 75,1M$ in Japan. I think that Disney reports a lower figure in order to update again at mid-week (700M$ OS or 1,1B$ WW) so keep Frozen (so also 'Disney' and also 'CA2') in the foreground as much as possible. Everything is marketing for Disney.

Yup. Their estimate was 200k short on the weekend and 1m for the week last week.

[Corpse]

How much did Ponyo earn, converted to US dollars? Someone posted a list here before that said 156m, BOM says 164m... a fairly large discrepancy. Just wondering which number Frozen would need to pass.

$156 million is a more accurate figure.  

 

BOM doesn't account for exchange rate shifts, and if a film ever resurfaces into their Top 10/15 after falling out, they'll update the total using the exchange rate of that weekend.  It went from $153 million in November (17th week in release), and suddenly jumped to $164 million after being tracked again in late December.  

 

Since Japan is a leggy market, you have to pay attention to how the exchange rate changes over the months blockbusters are in release.  BOM tracks many markets, so doing so would of course be difficult and probably unreasonable, but there are many totals they have for films in Japan that are wrong (either high or low).  

[Corpse]

Biggest Fourth Weekends/Four Week Totals (2001-)

 

Fourth Weekend (% change) / 4-Week Total -> Final Total - Film

¥972.2 million (-19%) / ¥8.43 billion -> ¥20.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)

¥953.2 million (-06%) / ¥8.45 billion -> ¥22.00 billion - Howl's Moving Castle (2004)

¥940.0 million (+06%) / ¥10.75 billion -> ¥30.40 billion - Spirited Away (2001)

¥922.9 million (-21%) / ¥8.13 billion -> ¥17.30 billion - Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets (2002)

¥869.0 million (-02%) / ¥7.70 billion -> ¥??.?? billion - Frozen (2014) *est*

¥765.7 million (+07%) / ¥7.20 billion -> ¥17.35 billion - Bayside Shakedown: Save the Rainbow Bridge (2003)

¥755.2 million (-03%) / ¥7.21 billion -> ¥15.50 billion - Ponyo (2008)

¥733.5 million (-27%) / ¥7.11 billion -> ¥13.50 billion - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (2004)

¥683.5 million (-27%) / ¥7.45 billion -> ¥10.90 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (2007)

¥657.9 million (-05%) / ¥6.23 billion -> ¥8.87 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (2011)

¥618.6 million (-23%) / ¥6.02 billion -> ¥8.55 billion - Rookies (2009)

¥617.1 million (+15%) / ¥5.41 billion -> ¥10.80 billion - Toy Story 3 (2010)

¥604.4 million (-22%) / ¥7.55 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - The Matrix Reloaded (2003)

¥565.4 million (-12%) / ¥5.08 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - Finding Nemo (2003)

¥556.0 million (-34%) / ¥5.91 billion -> ¥11.00 billion - Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (2005)

¥543.9 million (-07%) / ¥5.77 billion -> ¥8.04 billion - Umizaru: The Last Message (2010)

¥542.8 million (+07%) / ¥4.47 billion -> ¥13.70 billion - The Last Samurai (2003)

¥524.4 million (-26%) / ¥6.15 billion -> ¥10.32 billion - The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King (2004)

¥521.6 million (-52%) / ¥8.38 billion -> ¥11.80 billion - Alice in Wonderland (2010)

¥520.8 million (-01%) / ¥3.83 billion -> ¥8.50 billion - Crying Out Love in the Center of the World (2004)

¥518.5 million (-01%) / ¥5.22 billion -> ¥10.02 billion - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (2006)

¥510.3 million (-07%) / ¥5.60 billion -> ¥12.02 billion - The Wind Rises (2013)

¥510.1 million (-20%) / ¥5.93 billion -> ¥15.60 billion - Avatar (2009)

¥503.4 million (-09%) / ¥4.19 billion -> ¥9.37 billion - Monsters, Inc. (2002)

¥501.2 million (-27%) / ¥6.26 billion -> ¥9.05 billion - The Da Vinci Code (2006)

¥500 million+

 

Since it's unlikely to change so much from estimates to change its ranking, Frozen achieves the 5th-Biggest Fourth Weekend and 6th-Highest 4-Week Total since at least 2001.

 

It's worth noting that most of these films have yet to reach their major holiday frame boost as of their fourth week in release.  

 

>The only ones either out of or soon leaving their holiday frames includes: Avatar, Alice in Wonderland, Umizaru: The Last Message, Crying Out Love in the Center of the World, and finally Frozen.

 

>And Rookies, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End, Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides, and The Da Vinci Code were released off-season (all in May interesting enough) without any major holiday support, so they were naturally more-frontloaded than the rest.