JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Murgatroyd]

Murgatroyd, can you do a version of your first chart which shows the weekly totals for comparison instead of the weekends?

 

[edroger3]

 

 

 

 

 

This table is very well done. Maybe you should use intervals of 2500m instead of 5000m to make it more detailed.

Edited May 7, 2014 by edroger

[BadAtGender]

 

And that's why Frozen is so far behind Spirited Away.

 

It's interesting that HMC had such a huge drop in week 9. If Frozen avoids that, it should be pretty clear sailing.

[mfantin65]

Im going with 29.01m for week 8. A record not to be broken for many many yearsMurgatroyd ...29.74Ray.................29.16mfantin..........29.01Henry I...........27.72pepsa. ...........27.25catlover..........26.62Olive...............26.55kingslayer. ....26.00Queen Elsa.....25.80Incredible.......25.52Chucky...........24.98Tong Kosong.24.42DamienRoc....24.601Quigquag.......23.40Rysu...............23.27rhfqkddl45.....23.00Predictions due by 1415 monday, before 109 reportsgo with 2 decimals. One winner only then.I'd like to see one crazy bastard go higher than me at least once! Ive been under more than I've been over. 2people, nice.7hours to post time. Anymore takers?Monday is going to be either toho 10/20k up 33% from last week w some people off, 14/28k like SB monday w 1/2 off or above 20/40k w a majority off. Not sure which. Place your bets for bragging rights and a cup chai!

With the actual coming in, the week was under predicted by 1.2m. Last week was 25.7mQueen Elsa was the weekly winner w 25.8 closest to 25.7mIncardine was the weekend winner w 10.8 closest to 11.1m

[Ray]

I feel like SA at this point is like IM3 WW was a few months ago: still mathematically possible, but largely a pipe dream that would require all the stars to align. Frozen would have to hold insanely well to remain relevant going into the summer season, just to have a chance at raking in decent portions of those summer box office yen. Everything lined up for a fantastic two months from Frozen in Japan in order to make passing IM3 WW not only inevitable, but relatively easy. Can lightning strike twice?

[mfantin65]

From the way I see it, Frozen getting a post-GW multiplier of 20x (or close to that) would arguably represent its biggest achievement. Correct me if I'm wrong, but no movie in the recent history of cinema has ever broken this simple rule: every phenomenon (aka uber-leggy film) has to slow down sooner or later. Momentum can't be kept for half a year. In fact, movies like Titanic, Avatar, Spirited Away, ecc all show that it generally starts to slow down after a max of 2 months of release or so.Let's take Titanic (dom) and Spirited Away (Japan) as the most extreme examples of movie phenomenon.Titanic's overall multiplier: 21.5x // Titanic's post-VD multiplier: 8.5Spirited Away's overall multiplier: 30x // SA's post-summer multiplier: 10xIn both cases, and in every other case of leggy movies (expanding films like the fat greek wedding don't count, for obvious reasons), at some point the multiplier reduces to much less than half of its overall multiplier. Also, stronger overall legs lead to a lower ratio, as the loss of the momentum has a bigger relative effects in that case.Assuming a 7M 9th weekend and a 167M total, Frozen would gross 230M using Spirited Away's ratio. And that's Spirited Away's ratio, not Ratatouille's. 230M would also be it's total gross with a 30x multiplier, the limit so far in Japan. 20x would put Frozen in a league on its own and would definitely make it the craziest box office run of all time.Also, that's why I think it won't get close to 300. Titanic and Spirited Away probably suggest the presence of a structural limit.

I agree on all counts.  ~300M would probably make the most impressive BO run of all time in my eyes, but the logistics don't work out in a practical sense.

titanic is not comparable. It opened in too many theaters. If you look at at the amount of theaters thats similar to Japan you can compare ET, that run it did 20 times its 9th weekend. its theaters and weekends were larger but the numbers are very similar and it wound up iar about 360. It was all still in summer in it's 9th weekend but you have to remember frozen is going to get a summer bump 8 weeks from now. Its possible, logical and I say its going to happen. Y'all said this puppy couldn't beat a pixar movie. Think out of the box.

[mfantin65]

GW P2

6.8m Monday

5.5m Tuesday

1.7m Wedsday

14.0m Week

158.6m Total

Projection

Wed-Fri could have a little strength if some people take their vacation days this week or it drops back to week 6 lows.

Sat-sun will have a big drop, does it hold above OW one more time with competition fading and extra seats?

23m week

167.4m Total

Edited May 7, 2014 by mfantin65

[edroger3]

Site administrator updated a complete list of Frozen's Toho daily admissions, seats and shows from OD to yesterdayhttp://mimorin2014.blog.fc2.com/blog-entry-965.html

Edited May 7, 2014 by edroger

[Incarnadine]

GW P2

6.8m Monday

5.5m Tuesday

1.7m Wedsday

14.0m Week

158.6m Total

Projection

Wed-Fri could have a little strength if some people take their vacation days this week or it drops back to week 6 lows.

Sat-sun will have a big drop, does it hold above OW one more time with competition fading and extra seats?

I think it'll dip below OW, but might hang on over 7m. It's last pre-holiday weekend was 7.55 and GW must have burned off some demand, but the extra seats and lack of competition should keep the drop from being too big (I hope).

[mfantin65]

I think it'll dip below OW, but might hang on over 7m. It's last pre-holiday weekend was 7.55 and GW must have burned off some demand, but the extra seats and lack of competition should keep the drop from being too big (I hope).

nearly all movies drop 50% post GW, but nearly all movies drop 25-50% post SB too, and yhat didnt happen. Its gotta shot to hold OW. Edited May 7, 2014 by mfantin65

[SamComedian]

GW P2

6.8m Monday

5.5m Tuesday

1.7m Wedsday

14.0m Week

158.6m Total

Projection

Wed-Fri could have a little strength if some people take their vacation days this week or it drops back to week 6 lows.

Sat-sun will have a big drop, does it hold above OW one more time with competition fading and extra seats?

23m week

167.4m Total

170m or more in my opinion

[mfantin65]

The thur toho number could be lowest in the run based on wed number.Brace yourself omni!

[SamComedian]

In this website appear that Frozen have 159,4m. Is it true?

 

http://www.kogyotsushin.com/archives/alltime/

 

 

 

Edited May 7, 2014 by SamComedian

[Incarnadine]

nearly all movies drop 50% post GW, but nearly all movies drop 25-50% post SB too, and yhat didnt happen. Its gotta shot to hold OW.

50% would be 5.55m

40% would be 6.66m

30% would be 7.77m

 

I'm hoping for something around a 35% drop, but I'll be ok with anything better than 40%

[dudalb]

The Kaiju genre has not been big box office in Japan for some time....something a lot of Gaijin don't understand. Sort of like how Westerns are no longer big box office in the US.

Pacific Rim's lackluster performance in Japan took a lot of the PR fans by surprise...but did not surprise those who actually follow the box office in Japan.

So it is a long,long,way from certain that Godzilla (2014),despite Toho's involvment,is going to do well in Japan.The last Japanese Godzilla movie was big box office dissapointment.

I have to join in the astonishment at what a monster (no joke intended) Frozen has become in Japan.

[mfantin65]

50% would be 5.55m40% would be 6.66m30% would be 7.77m I'm hoping for something around a 35% drop, but I'll be ok with anything better than 40%

it dropped 5% when others dropped 25%+ after SB. Dropping 30% when others drop 50+ seem possible.

[Incarnadine]

it dropped 5% when others dropped 25%+ after SB. Dropping 30% when others drop 50+ seem possible.

True, but the others didn't go up nearly 50% on GW weekend like frozen did.

Of course I'd love to see a mere 30% drop and have it stay above OW, but that's a pretty tall order, even for Frozen.

[Murgatroyd]

This table is very well done. Maybe you should use intervals of 2500m instead of 5000m to make it more detailed.

 

How about this?

 

Edited May 8, 2014 by Murgatroyd

[zackzack]

FROZEn run = mind blown

[lab276]

I feel like SA at this point is like IM3 WW was a few months ago: still mathematically possible, but largely a pipe dream that would require all the stars to align. Frozen would have to hold insanely well to remain relevant going into the summer season, just to have a chance at raking in decent portions of those summer box office yen. Everything lined up for a fantastic two months from Frozen in Japan in order to make passing IM3 WW not only inevitable, but relatively easy. Can lightning strike twice?

To make ¥15b is one thing, to make another ¥15b on top of that? Especially now that it's going to slow down? I think it might be impossible.