JAPAN BOX OFFICE | Demon Slayer breaks all time record for OW

[Jamiem]

2 hours ago, Sunny Max said:

So can we expect decent numbers ??

It has a limited release here in New Zealand so far only the biggest theatres are getting it, I had to get tickets at Queen Street whereas Your Name was playing at my local cinema (Albany). That said Your Name didn’t release until December so maybe they could expand Weathering With You later in its run if it performs well. 

 

I would say a safe bet would be to assume it will do similar numbers to Your Name at the moment, although I can’t remember if Your Name was shown in IMAX which might help the average ticket price of WWY. 

 

Edit: just had another look and there are Albany shows up now. Its playing at 7 Event Cinemas NZ locations (one showing each per day) so far. Had a look at Hoyts as well but couldn’t find any shows or mention of the film yet. 

Edited July 31, 2019 by Jamiem

[catlover]

Btw WWY is going to be released here in Indonesia too on 21st of August. It will probably a limited release like all Japanese movies before that. Detective Conan is playing right now and it only has like 50-60 theaters.

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, catlover said:

Btw WWY is going to be released here in Indonesia too on 21st of August. It will probably a limited release like all Japanese movies before that. Detective Conan is playing right now and it only has like 50-60 theaters.

well that's 50-60 more theaters for Detective Conan than it can get in North America.

[charlie Jatinder]

3 hours ago, cannastop said:

¥1.57 billion ($12.2 million), +02%, ¥4.66 billion ($36.9 million) - Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone (2001)

I know, that weekend before 2006 weekend included Previews, but this 2% growth wouldn't make sense.

 

And then question remain same, why no films open this big now. In fact, DH 2 looks poor in comparison.

[cannastop]

Just now, Charlie Jatinder said:

I know, that weekend before 2006 weekend included Previews, but this 2% growth wouldn't make sense.

 

And then question remain same, why no films open this big now. In fact, DH 2 looks poor in comparison.

Uh why wouldn't it make sense? Increasing from the opening weekend isn't unheard of.

[charlie Jatinder]

2 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Uh why wouldn't it make sense? Increasing from the opening weekend isn't unheard of.

Increasing from opening weekend including previews.

[cannastop]

3 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Increasing from opening weekend including previews.

Well I don't know if that was exactly the case, and still in Japan, it might have been like a 20% increase over the true weekend, if what you're saying is true. Totally possible.

[KP1025]

Corpse:

 

Weekend Actuals (07/27-28)
01 (01) ¥1,012,019,500 ($9.3 million), -15%, ¥3,990,295,100 ($36.8 million), Weathering With You (Toho) WK2
02 (02) ¥628,233,800 ($5.8 million), -27%, ¥5,508,478,600 ($50.9 million), Toy Story 4 (Disney) WK3
03 (---) ¥265,172,000 ($2.4 million), 0, ¥346,069,800 ($3.2 million), The Great War of Archimedes (Toho) NEW
04 (---) ¥245,575,100 ($2.3 million), 0, ¥332,632,900 ($3.1 million), Kamen Rider Zi-O: Over Quartzer! (Toei) NEW
05 (---) ¥223,368,600 ($2.1 million), 0, ¥281,868,200 ($2.6 million), The Secret Life of Pets 2 (Toho-Towa) NEW
06 (03) ¥209,899,600 ($1.9 million), -27%, ¥10,951,739,700 ($100.8 million), Aladdin (Disney) WK8
07 (04) ¥163,923,900 ($1.5 million), -35%, ¥1,706,621,500 ($15.7 million), Pokemon: Mewtwo Strikes Back - Evolution (Toho) WK3
08 (05) ¥x57,504,000 ($530,000), -45%, ¥2,847,441,500 ($26.3 million), Spider-Man: Far From Home (Sony) WK5
09 (NA) ¥x48,647,000 ($448,000), -NA%, ¥246,818,300 ($2.3 million), Child's Play (Toho-Towa) WK2
10 (08) ¥x47,843,500 ($441,000), -40%, ¥1,051,271,900 ($9.7 million), The Diner (Warner Bros.) WK4

>Weathering With You repeats in its sophomore frame, and delivered an incredible second weekend in the process, once again coming in above ¥1 billion. Its two-week total was also just shy of ¥4 billion, giving it the tenth biggest two-week total in history. Its running 3% ahead of Shinkai's previous film, Your Name.. I imagine it'll fall behind this week, but it's still playing very strong and a total north of ¥15 billion ($140-150 million+) is likely. If The Lion King or One Piece Film Stampede fail to dethrone it in two weeks, look for a very, very long run atop the box-office.

>Toy Story 4 held well, and continues to outpace every previous Pixar film after three weeks in release. It'll likely keep an impressive lead over its studio predecessors (Finding Nemo and Toy Story 3) for a couple more weeks, though the real test will be week 6 on. The film faces much bigger competition (Lion King and One Piece) than them, and it'll likely receive harsh screen/showtimes cuts on August 9th. However, while I do anticipate it to take a bit of a hit and lose most of its lead, I am predicting it will become Pixar's highest-grossing film. It's on track for around ¥12 billion ($110 million), though could go a little higher with a proper Obon Festival boost.

>The Great War of Archimedes managed to outdo its weekend co-openers, and while that's a nice accomplishment, the opening is still a bit on the low-end of expectations. It sold 202,000 admissions across 345 screens over the weekend frame, and reached 266,411 admissions since opening on Friday. The upcoming holiday period will probably allow it to reach the ¥2 billion (~$20 million) milestone, which'll make it a a success, but it could also fall just shy of the mark as well.

>Kamen Rider Zi-O: Over Quartzer outperformed my prediction and debuted in the range of the long-running franchise norm. The 59th theatrical release in the overall franchise sold a solid 194,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 325 screens, and reached 262,173 admissions since opening on Friday.  Expect a total just above the ¥1 billion (~$10 million) milestone due to the frontloaded nature of the series.

>The Secret Life of Pets 2 ended up bombing after all, or if calling it a "bomb" is too extreme, it really, really, disappointed, opening almost 60% below its predecessor... The film sold 175,000 admissions over the weekend frame on 380 screens, and reached 224,376 admissions since opening on Friday. After this result and The Grinch also disappointing last year, is Illumination's surprising rise to popularity in Japan already coming to an end?

>Aladdin is losing screens and showtimes at a quick rate now, but that's not keeping it from continuing to post good holds. This is the film that will be most affected by The Lion King and One Piece on August 9th, and I'm expecting it'll lose up to two-thirds of its screens/showtimes due to losing all of its premium showings. But, it's still going to outgross Alice in Wonderland (¥11.8 billion) without much trouble, and come very close to Beauty and the Beast (¥12.4 billion). At the moment, it's a coin-toss on whether it or Toy Story 4 will be Disney's biggest summer release this year (or can The Lion King enter the equation?).

>Spider-Man: Far From Home experienced another big drop, though it outgrossed its predecessor over its fifth weekend of release. It's not holding well enough to sustain enough screens/showtimes to take advantage of the upcoming Obon Festival, unfortunately, but it will be able to exceed the ¥3 billion (~$30 million) milestone.

 

Edited August 1, 2019 by KP1025

[cannastop]

13 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

If The Lion King or One Piece Film Stampede fail to dethrone it in two weeks, look for a very, very long run atop the box-office.

I expect a 1 billion yen opening for One Piece Film Stampede and a 500 million yen opening for The Lion King 2019.

 

Of course if corpse contradicts this with his weekend forecast, I'm going with him.

[cannastop]

4 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I expect a 1 billion yen opening for One Piece Film Stampede and a 500 million yen opening for The Lion King 2019.

 

Of course if corpse contradicts this with his weekend forecast, I'm going with him.

I still expect Weathering With You to hold better than he predicts, given his conservative nature. He did this with Zootopia, and if I heard  correctly, Frozen.

Edited August 1, 2019 by cannastop

[catlover]

1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

I know, that weekend before 2006 weekend included Previews, but this 2% growth wouldn't make sense.

 

And then question remain same, why no films open this big now. In fact, DH 2 looks poor in comparison.

But did HP1 have previews though? I do remember that big movies back then had huge previews that inflated their OWs, like Matrix Reloaded, Revenge of the Sith, Dead Man's Chest. I don't remember about HP1.

[KP1025]

18 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I expect a 1 billion yen opening for One Piece Film Stampede and a 500 million yen opening for The Lion King 2019.

 

Of course if corpse contradicts this with his weekend forecast, I'm going with him.

 

Maybe Corpse is more optimistic about Lion King's prospects in Japan now. I'm guessing because it is having a very strong OS performance almost everywhere, and Japan usually follows the developed markets quite closely when it comes to trends. He may also just be correcting for severely underestimating Aladdin (he predicted a ¥3-5 billion total for it just a few weeks before release). 

13 minutes ago, cannastop said:

I still expect Weathering With You to hold better than he predicts, given his conservative nature. He did this with Zootopia, and if I heard  correctly, Frozen.

After Frozen's second weekend, Corpse still wasn't keen to lock a ¥10 billion total yet (it finished with ¥25.48 billion) . Frozen far outperformed any comparable film, so it is understandable why his initial estimates were so conservative compared to its final total. 

Quote

Frozen as reported increased in its second weekend, but both Disney and estimates were... LOW! The film actually increased 13% taking in ¥872,269,400 ($8.6 million) with 680,855 admissions. This is the 9th biggest second weekend since at least 1998 (no weekend data prior to this date), and the only film since then to ever open above ¥500 million to see a second weekend increases without Holiday support.  

And as equally as impressive, its 10-day total reached ¥3.01 billion ($29.6 million) with 2.43 million admissions. It has an extra day in release when compared to The Wind Rises (¥2.85 billion) or Monsters University (¥2.49 billion), but this is the second highest two week total for an animated film since Ponyo (¥3.23 billion).  

Eventually it should lose its momentum once Spring Break is over, allowing the films it's tracking ahead of currently to catch up since their holidays boosts came later in their runs. But if it keeps up this pace... ¥10 billion ($100 million), while already a possibility, becomes more likely. 

 

[cannastop]

7 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

Maybe Corpse is more optimistic about Lion King's prospects in Japan now.

Has he said anything about the movie in the past few weeks? The only clue I have to success in Japan for it is the explosive result in South Korea, which also predicted success for Frozen and Zootopia.

 

As for following trends, Japan bucks trends with the MCU and most other superhero movies. It also bucked trends with how humongous Harry Potter was in the market.

 

Also Fast and Furious movies only do pretty good in Japan, instead of phenomenally.

Edited August 1, 2019 by cannastop

[KP1025]

46 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Has he said anything about the movie in the past few weeks? The only clue I have to success in Japan for it is the explosive result in South Korea, which also predicted success for Frozen and Zootopia.

 

As for following trends, Japan bucks trends with the MCU and most other superhero movies. It also bucked trends with how humongous Harry Potter was in the market.

I don't think so. I suspect we won't get a clearer picture until at least the final presales data is posted.

 

For trends, I believe MCU is the biggest exception given Japan's general apathy for CBMs. But when a massive global phenomenon like Endgame came along, even Japan managed to step up and perform far above what they usually do for these types of films. Japan was indeed the best market for Harry Potter, but that franchise also had strong performances in the developed European markets (very strong in the UK in particular).

 

When you look at films that have approached or crossed $1 billion OS, Japan has usually been a sizable contributor. The most notable exceptions are the Avengers and Fast and Furious films, where Japan pulled decent but not great numbers (only Endgame barely crossed $50 million). 

Edited August 1, 2019 by KP1025

[SchumacherFTW]

3 hours ago, cannastop said:

I expect a 1 billion yen opening for One Piece Film Stampede and a 500 million yen opening for The Lion King 2019.

 

Of course if corpse contradicts this with his weekend forecast, I'm going with him.

I wouldn't go that high with One Piece. Gold came in comfortably under that a few years back, and the franchise was hotter then. 

[cannastop]

25 minutes ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I wouldn't go that high with One Piece. Gold came in comfortably under that a few years back, and the franchise was hotter then. 

10. ¥1.155 billion ($11.0 million) / 820,830 - One Piece Film Gold (2016)

 

?

 

That's corpse's data. Or maybe this counts something else. Previews maybe?

Edited August 1, 2019 by cannastop

[cannastop]

It's a real shame that Hollywood didn't have a breakout hit in Japan in 2012.

 

The Yen was at like an 60 year high against the Dollar. If not longer. Just stupidly strong Yen.

[KP1025]

10 minutes ago, cannastop said:

It's a real shame that Hollywood didn't have a breakout hit in Japan in 2012.

 

The Yen was at like an 60 year high against the Dollar. If not longer. Just stupidly strong Yen.

The yen was even slightly stronger in 2011, and both Harry Potter and Pirates of the Caribbean sequels took big advantage of it.

 

01. ¥9.67 billion ($125.3 million) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (Warner Bros.)
02. ¥8.87 billion ($114.9 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Disney)

 

Really shows what a huge boost Hollywood films got back then. The same amount in yen would be $88.58 million and $81.25 million respectively using the current ER. 

 

[cannastop]

Just now, KP1025 said:

The yen was even slightly stronger in 2011, and both Harry Potter and Pirates of the Caribbean sequels took big advantage of it.

 

01. ¥9.67 billion ($125.3 million) - Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows - Part 2 (Warner Bros.)
02. ¥8.87 billion ($114.9 million) - Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides (Disney)

 

Really shows what a huge boost Hollywood films got back then. The same amount in yen would be $88.58 million and $81.25 million respectively using the current ER. 

 

Ah. Looks like this was it.

 

https://money.cnn.com/2011/03/16/markets/dollar_yen/index.htm

 

But it was under 80 per dollar in 2012 as well.

[SchumacherFTW]

5 hours ago, cannastop said:

10. ¥1.155 billion ($11.0 million) / 820,830 - One Piece Film Gold (2016)

 

?

 

That's corpse's data. Or maybe this counts something else. Previews maybe?

Well shit, I thought it had a weaker launch. Might just be in comparison with Film Z or something