Official France Box Office Thread

[Aristis]

Some thoughts on AEG:

 

title / OD / OW (5-day) / OWeek (7-day) / (multipler from OW)

Av1   333k   1,56M   2,04M   4,51M   (x2,89)
Av2   303k   1,44M   1,93M   4,33M   (x2,24)

Av3   405k   1,84M   2,57M   5,14M   (x2,79)

 

Low:

Av4   500k   2,00M   2,70M   5,5M   (x2,75)   (everything below that would be disappointing to me... 2M+ for the OW will happen.)

High:

Av4   600k   2,40M   3,10M   6,00M  (x2,50)

 

title / €-gross* / $-gross* / ATP € / ATP $ / XR
Av1   €29,87M   $37,77M   €6,62   $8,37   1,26

Av2   €30,82M   $34,27M   €7,12   $7,91   1,11

Av3   €40,58M   $47,69M   €7,89   $9,28   1,18

 

Low:

Av4   €44,00M   $49,30M   €8,00   $8,95   1,12

High:

Av4   €48,00M   $53,80M   €8,00   $8,95   1,12

 

*Grosses are from BOM so they should at least be *close* to the real gross.

 

 

Even my high end may be low but for now  I can't see the craziness happening in Europe. AIW already was big. We will see more wenn numbers are incoming

Sadly Euro is weaker than for AIW, so EG has to be even stronger.

 

(Probably I'm not conservative anymore when first numbers from Europe arrive )

[terrestrial]

BOX-OFFICE‏ @boxofficenuls 2m2 minutes ago

More

Avec 18 021 entrées paris 14h #AvengersEndgame réalise le 3ème démarrage de tous les temps derrière Spiderman3 et Spectre #marvel @DisneyFR

Translated from French by Microsoft

With 18 021 entries Paris 14h #AvengersEndgame realizes the 3rd start of all time behind Spiderman3 and spectre #marvel @DisneyFR

 

[Aristis]

So cinedirectors just did this (3,5M to) 3,8M OWeek prediction. That would be shocking, 3rd biggest 1st week ever tied with TFA (3,801M)... behind Bienvenue chez les Ch'tis (4,38M) and Les Bronzés (3,91M), both being french movies. And 48% above AIW.

(--> http://www.jpbox-office.com/demarrage.php)

 

Here's the full TOP10 forecast (CM still going strong...):

 

1	Avengers - Endgame	3 800 000	New	3,800
2	After	345 000	- 45 %	0,970
3	La malédiction de la dame blanche	205 000	- 35 %	0,521
4	Dumbo	170 000	- 35 %	1,965
5	Tanguy, le retour	120 000	- 45 %	0,822
6	Le parc des merveilles	120 000	- 35 %	1,056
7	Shazam !	115 000	- 35 %	1,029
8	Simetierre	110 000	- 40 %	0,680
9	Royal corgi	90 000	- 40 %	0,522
10	Captain Marvel	85 000	- 25 %	3,256

(http://www.cine-directors.net/boxbis.htm)

 

However, here's the *but*... They tend to be very optimistic (e.g. for Serial (Bad) Weddings 2 they predicted 2,5M and it became 2,15M, the same drop in actuals would result in 3,27M... Isn't great math though )

 

The numbers we have are for Paris (18k) and periphery (49,3k). For AIW they were 10,7k (AEG up 68%) and 34,4k (+43%). It went on to have 405k on OD.

 

Having the same multipler AEG would result in:

Paris 10,7k ---> 680k

periphery 34,4k ---> 580k

(with SM2 as comparison it's the aother way round with Paris --> 560k and periph --> 760k...)

 

Thus OD might be around 600k.

 

As for OW: AIW had ODx4,55 which would result in 2,7M+ (probably not happening). AEG may get ODx4 for 2,4M. (--> $21,5M)

 

For OWeek: AIW had 725k midweek with 1st May being on Tuesday (I think...) which boosted its Mo+Tue midweek. Since it's AEG it might be able to top AIW that despite that for around 750k? and 3,15M.

 

Total: AIW total was 2xOWeek so maybe 6,3M.

 

title / OD / OW (5-day) / OWeek (7-day) / (multipler from OW)

Av1   333k   1,56M   2,04M   4,51M   (x2,89)
Av2   303k   1,44M   1,93M   4,33M   (x2,24)

Av3   405k   1,84M   2,57M   5,14M   (x2,79)

Av4   600k   2,40M   3,15M   6,30M   (x2,63)

 

That would be my thoughts without knowing the CineDirectors prediction. But they probably know french BO better than me, so...

Edited April 24, 2019 by Aristis

[Aristis]

In case someone's interested in last WE

 

18.04. - 21.04.

 

1	522.778	---	522.778	1	After
2	250.000	---	250.000	1	Llorona
3	184.000	-42	1.718.519	4	Dumbo
4	149.576	-60	636.210	2	Tanguy 2
5	139.786	-54	525.040	2	Pet Sematary
6	135.686	-38	885.951	3	Wonder Park
7	130.000	-42	868.302	3	Shazam!
8	103.883	-48	388.381	2	Royal Corgi
9	97.631	---	97.631	1	Just a Gigolo
10	81.800	-28	3.140.252	7	Captain Marvel

 

Great OW for After. May get around 1,5M.

 

Dumbo is still on its way to become the 4th biggest Disney LA remake behind Alice (4,54M), TJB (3,72M) and BATB (3,57M) and in front of Maleficent (2,05M) with 2,2M+.

 

CM is just 90k shy of passing GOTG2 to become the 6th biggest MCU. It could get to 3,35M.

 

Top10 2019:

1	6.630.781	Serial (Bad) Wedding 2
2	3.353.582	HTTYD3
3	3.140.252	Captain Marvel
4	2.250.960	Ralph2
5	2.032.323	Alita
6	1.937.893	Green Book
7	1.848.771	The Mule
8	1.733.124	Creed 2
9	1.718.519	Dumbo
10	1.688.192	Nicky Larson et le parfum de Cupidon

 

After this WE AEG should really be 4th on this list...

 

TOP OW 2019:

1	1.852.556	Serial (Bad) Wedding 2
2	1.125.726	Captain Marvel
3	1.020.715	HTTYD3
4	735.298	Creed 2
5	687.083	Ralph2
6	625.373	Alita
7	541.790	The Mule
8	510.579	Nicky Larson

 

AEG will surely be first here, even increasing very little from AIW (1,84M).

 

http://www.insidekino.de/BO/F2018.htm

Edited April 25, 2019 by Aristis

[Fullbuster]

13 hours ago, terrestrial said:

BOX-OFFICE‏ @boxofficenuls 2m2 minutes ago

More

Avec 18 021 entrées paris 14h #AvengersEndgame réalise le 3ème démarrage de tous les temps derrière Spiderman3 et Spectre #marvel @DisneyFR

Translated from French by Microsoft

With 18 021 entries Paris 14h #AvengersEndgame realizes the 3rd start of all time behind Spiderman3 and spectre #marvel @DisneyFR

 

 

Meh

 

I mean, behind Spidey 3 is ok (it was a holiday) but behind Spectre? 😕

[terrestrial]

13 hours ago, Aristis said:

The numbers we have are for Paris (18k) and periphery (49,3k). For AIW they were 10,7k (AEG up 68%) and 34,4k (+43%). It went on to have 405k on OD.

 

1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

Meh

Compare it with what belongs in the same 'group' and do not expect the 'impossible' and you will do without disappointments

[Bonenash]

1 hour ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Meh

 

I mean, behind Spidey 3 is ok (it was a holiday) but behind Spectre? 😕

 

hi spectre was also on holiday plus it had a ton tueday presales into the opening day

 

in France doing +600K admissions opening day is very hard especially on no holidays....

 

But i heard the opening day could be +660K so top 8 all time if true we ll see.

[cdsacken]

Spoiler post is deleted on main Avengers End Game thread from page 573. However several viewed (I missed it by 5 seconds). Be advised if you are truly concerned about spoilers I'm not sure any thread is safe from trolls so be careful.

[Sunny Max]

44 minutes ago, Bonenash said:

 

hi spectre was also on holiday plus it had a ton tueday presales into the opening day

 

in France doing +600K admissions opening day is very hard especially on no holidays....

 

But i heard the opening day could be +660K so top 8 all time if true we ll see.

660K+ Admission Still On Number 8th At France BO ...  😮 😮  i Thought With 660K Movie Might Enter in Top 4 Of All Time

[jerem4502]

OD 692 142 admissions !!!

[FlashMaster659]

35 minutes ago, jerem4502 said:

OD 692 142 admissions !!!

This is for all of France? And IW?

Edited April 25, 2019 by FlashMaster659

[ZeeSoh]

2 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

This is for all of France? And IW?

Yea for all France. And IW was 405,058 so Endgame’s OD is 71% over IW’s OD

[Sunny Max]

3 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

This is for all of France? And IW?

Yes OD Admissions in France .. (2nd Best Start For A Superhero Film After Spiderman3 804,354)

 

IW Had 405,058

[Sunny Max]

1 minute ago, ZeeSoh said:

Yea for all France. And IW was 405,058 so Endgame’s OD is 71% over IW’s OD

What About in Euros ..? is it Over 8 M + ..?

[ZeeSoh]

11 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

What About in Euros ..? is it Over 8 M + ..?

Havent seen any gross reported yet, only admissions. Will have to wait for Deadline’s or Cine-Directors report or hope that Rth pops by and gives that info. 

 

I found the following OD for some non SH movies

 

Spectre - 850,000 (Holiday)

Dead mans chest - 693,303

SW: ROTS - 641,799

The Force Awakens - 619,000

The Last Jedi - 504,000

 

Endgame has the 9th highest OD in terms of admissions

Edited April 25, 2019 by ZeeSoh

[Aristis]

15 minutes ago, Sunny Max said:

What About in Euros ..? is it Over 8 M + ..?

No, France has low TP, probably around €5,6M and $6,2M.

[Poseidon]

Here's the best ODs of all time in France:

 

http://www.jpbox-office.com/1jour.php

 

Keep in mind, that the other movies pretty much all openend on a holiday or during summer holidays, where the whole country had school off. Yesterday, many areas were already back on school. 

Edited April 25, 2019 by Poseidon

[Linkinitouille]

I'll also add that OD nearly always include previews.

 

Spectre has 250k in previews in its OD, allowing it to claim the biggest opening day ever. But the best "raw" opening day is still Spider-Man 3 as the May 1st holiday release was already a world premiere and therefore had no previews. On a non-holiday without previews, Ice Age 3 claims it, but it released on the "fête du cinéma", which is a nationwide event happening in late June/early July where the ticket price is much lower for everyone (it's currently €4) - that event allowed Incredibles 2 to get into that top 10 last summer. Without any holiday, previews or fête du cinéma event, Harry Potter 5 has it (Harry Potter 7.2 had 100k in previews).

 

I'll also add that despite all of this, there's a possibility that Welcome to the Sticks, in its nationwide opening week, might have cracked 1 million admissions on a single day, but not on its opening day (maybe Saturday or Sunday).

Edited April 25, 2019 by Linkinitouille

[Sunny Max]

1 hour ago, Aristis said:

No, France has low TP, probably around €5,6M and $6,2M.

Yeah Its $6 Million ... Collections Came .. Thnxx 

[fabiopazzo2]

$ 4.2M on Friday?!