Parasite Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 (edited) Ok.. So Joker PS are down 65% from last week. BUT don't pull the trigger alarm so quickly. There's very few data on holdover PS. TLK dropped around 80% in PS, but still managed a stellar 30% second weekend hold. TLK Week 2 comp : 1 150 000 admissions (-32% inc. previews/-29% off a likely 1,7 (82k previews) OWeek) TLK Week 3 comp : 1 469 000 (-11%/-9%) Besides, neither of these TLK weeks losed PLF like Joker does to Maleficent, and the MTC (Pathé Gaumont) here has exclusivity to IMAX, 4DX, Screen X,... Last week's walk-ups were deflated by a technical problem on Saturday, unableling most Pathé theaters to sell any ticket, while this week has the beginning of the school break. Overall, I'd say Joker is headed to 1,3-1,5 second weekend, for a stellar - 10/-20 % hold. Maleficent is performing as expected, towards a likely 60-70 OD. La Vérité ! (...) is bombing horrifically, and will be incredibly lucky to hit 1M total. Everything below is awful. Edited October 16, 2019 by Parasite 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Parasite said: Ok.. So Joker PS are down 65% from last week. BUT don't pull the trigger alarm so quickly. There's very few data on holdover PS. TLK dropped around 80% in PS, but still managed a stellar 30% second weekend hold. TLK Week 2 comp : 1 150 000 admissions (-32% inc. previews/-29% off a likely 1,7 (82k previews) OWeek) TLK Week 3 comp : 1 469 000 (-11%/-9%) Besides, neither of these TLK weeks losed PLF like Joker does to Maleficient, and the MTC (Pathé Gaumont) here has exclusivity to IMAX, 4DX, Screen X,... Last week's walk-ups were deflated by a technical problem on Saturday, unableling most Pathé theaters to sell any ticket, while this week has the beginning of the school break. Overall, I'd say Joker is headed to 1,3-1,5 second weekend, for a stellar - 10/-20 % hold. Maleficient is performing as expected, towards a likely 60-70 OD. La Vérité ! (...) is bombing horrifically, and will be incredibly lucky to hit 1M total. Everything below is awful. Nice, it will be incredible if it manages to do that. So after the weekend it have chance at least to hit 3m admission if it goes well ? Also the weekend in France counts from wednesday-sunday ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parasite Posted October 16, 2019 Share Posted October 16, 2019 9 hours ago, RJ 95 said: Nice, it will be incredible if it manages to do that. So after the weekend it have chance at least to hit 3m admission if it goes well ? Also the weekend in France counts from wednesday-sunday ? 1 576 425 OWeek for Joker. Very, very nice. If (that's a big if, French PS can be very misleading) it holds like TLK suggests it will, it should be around 3M, yes. The "weekend" is Wed-Sun. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parasite Posted October 20, 2019 Share Posted October 20, 2019 (edited) Probably - 30% or slightly less for Joker for the weekend. The % drop should go down for the full week due to the school break. OW was revised up 30k. Edited October 20, 2019 by Parasite 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 (edited) According to cine-director Joker already with 2.835 million admission until Tuesday. 1st Week : 1.606.425 2nd Week : 1.229.000 (-23%) This is already second estimate from cine-director so it should be very close to actual. From this because Joker first weekend 1.35m and second weekend 927k admission. Joker second Mon-Tue actually bigger this week than last ( 302k this week vs 251k last week ) Estimate : $ 22.1m also $ 2.4m from Mon-Tue School break as Parasite said before probably help. Also estimate for next week (23-29 October) already made by them 920k (25%), 3.755m http://www.cine-directors.net/boxoff.htm Edited October 23, 2019 by RJ 95 wrong name mistaken Parasite for Taruseth, Lol sorry man 4 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jak Ryan Drake Campbell Posted October 23, 2019 Share Posted October 23, 2019 Maleficent knows a nice course here, a fall of only 10% is planned for his second week! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted October 30, 2019 Share Posted October 30, 2019 Cine-director estimate for this week 30 October-5 November (Wed-Tue) : Joker 700k, 4.53m Mal2 650k, 1.55m Abominable 630k, 1.42m Terminator 290k, 0.73 Zombieland 200k, New Doctor Sleep 200k, New Last week they underestimate almost every movie, let's hope this week will be the same. http://www.cine-directors.net/boxbis.htm 6 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parasite Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 (edited) Pretty good for Abominable considering its performance in the rest of the world. IMHO, Joker and Hors Normes seem a bit low while Maleficent (and Abominable) are slightly high considering the end of the school break. Awful for Dr Sleep. Italian film Le Traître (Il traditore) could outgross it this week. Joker got Label Plébiscite du Public (like Cinemascore, films with 8.5+ get it) with a 9.2/10 score. Hors Normes also got it, with 9.9/10, which is the highest score ever. Its opening is a bit disappointing, but it has an even better score than Intouchables. Let's see if it can hold flat this week. Edited November 2, 2019 by Parasite 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Old Spice Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 19 minutes ago, Parasite said: Pretty good for Abominable considering its performance in the rest of the world. IMHO, Joker and Hors Normes seem a bit low while Maleficent (and Abominable) are slightly high considering the end of the school break. Awful for Dr Sleep. Italian film Le Traître (Il traditore) could outgross it this week. Joker got Label Plébiscite du Public (like Cinemascore, films with 8.5+ get it) with a 9.2/10 score. Hors Normes also got it, with 9.9/10, which is the highest score ever. Its opening is a bit disappointing, but it has an even better score than Intouchables. Let's see if it can hold flat this week. Joker less than the original projection of 700k? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parasite Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 (edited) 1 hour ago, A Star is Orm said: Joker less than the original projection of 700k? Less % change. 800k + maybe. There was a holiday yesterday, but all schools are still closed, so it won't impact Abominable and Maleficent much, while helping Hors Normes and Joker. Both films will also suffer less when the school break is over on Monday/Tuesday. Edited November 2, 2019 by Parasite 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted November 2, 2019 Share Posted November 2, 2019 24 minutes ago, Parasite said: Less % change. 800k + maybe. There was a holiday yesterday, but all schools are still closed, so it won't impact Abominable and Maleficent much, while helping Hors Normes and Joker. Both films will also suffer less when the school break is over on Monday/Tuesday. Does 11 November Monday holiday will help weekend drop and box office wise ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parasite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 (edited) 20 hours ago, RJ 95 said: Does 11 November Monday holiday will help weekend drop and box office wise ? 11/11 falls on Monday, so it won't count for the weekend, but yes. Joker at 35.7 this weekend in France, so around flat weekend. Avengers : Endgame's total (6,9M) could be within reach if it doesn't crumble after the school break and keeps managing such holds. It's looking at 6,3- 6,5M rn. Edited November 3, 2019 by Parasite 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john2000 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 3 minutes ago, Parasite said: 11/11 falls on Monday, so it won't count for the weekend, but yes. Joker at 35.7 this weekend in France, so around flat weekend. Avengers : Endgame's total is within reach. i dont know endgame in $ made 62 million Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 8 minutes ago, Parasite said: 11/11 falls on Monday, so it won't count for the weekend, but yes. Joker at 35.7 this weekend in France, so around flat weekend. Avengers : Endgame's total (6,9M) could be within reach if it doesn't crumble after the school break and keeps managing such holds. It's looking at 6,3- 6,5M rn. Whoa so $50m finish ? Great. I mean with Monday holiday, probably Sunday evening business will be better than usual but it's funny though that cine director expect 700k for this week and it gets that only in weekend. Is there any big local realese before Frozen come ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parasite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 4 minutes ago, john2000 said: i dont know endgame in $ made 62 million It was at 3 834 888 admissions last week. This week should be around 900k (4,730M total), 2,2M away from AEG (2.4x multi which seems reasonable). The thing is, this week was very inflated by the holidays. If it drops 45-50% next week, it will be impossible. However, Joker's been defying gravity in its run ; it can somehow find a way to manage a sub-40% drop next week for 550k admissions, then the following weekend will have Nov. 11, 440k (-20%), then 280k (-36%), 200k (-30%), 130k (-35%) for a 6.33M cume, where it needs a 4.3x multi. Christmas legs could get it there. Surpassing Endgame will be very tough, but it's not unreasonable to think it can finish in the same range. It might be doable if it gets Oscar expansions and a good Christmas boost. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parasite Posted November 3, 2019 Share Posted November 3, 2019 (edited) On 11/3/2019 at 6:38 PM, RJ 95 said: Whoa so $50m finish ? Great. I mean with Monday holiday, probably Sunday evening business will be better than usual but it's funny though that cine director expect 700k for this week and it gets that only in weekend. Is there any big local realese before Frozen come ? Les Misérables has 2M+ potential. It opens on the same day as Frozen. J'accuse also opens in two weeks, but it won't be that big. La belle époque too actually could be a nice success next week, but probably 1M max. Edited November 4, 2019 by Parasite 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted November 5, 2019 Share Posted November 5, 2019 Since no one posted,....... 9.10.2019 - 13.10.2019 Nr. Bes. % Ges. Wo. Film 1 1.357.118 --- 1.357.118 1 Joker 2 256.321 --- 256.321 1 Der Junge und die Wildgänse 3 205.187 -28 1.042.929 3 Au nom de la terre 4 175.720 -43 535.726 2 Geminni Man 5 119.721 -45 394.244 2 Alice et le maire 6 110.652 --- 110.652 1 Chambre 212 7 88.682 -54 317.525 2 J'irai ou tu iras 8 86.501 -39 541.262 3 Downton Abbey 9 64.690 -52 527.554 3 Rambo V 10 56.700 -58 940.909 4 Ad Astra 16.10.2019 - 20.10.2019 Nr. Bes. % Ges. Wo. Film 1 927.901 -32 2.534.326 2 Joker 2 548.537 --- 548.537 1 Maleficent 2 3 202.674 -1 1.313.418 4 Au nom de la terre 4 197.357 -23 510.836 2 Der Junge und die Wildgänse 5 157.012 --- 157.012 1 Shaun das Schaf 2 6 146.499 --- 146.499 1 Angry Birds 2 7 113.827 -35 670.642 3 Gemini Man 8 99.688 --- 99.688 1 La Verite si je mens 9 91.587 -23 522.916 3 Alice et le maire 10 90.885 --- 90.885 1 Hustlers 23.10.2019 - 27.10.2019 Nr. Bes. % Ges. Wo. Film 1 737.867 -20 3.573.232 3 Joker 2 554.999 +1 1.341.484 2 Maleficent 2 3 548.762 --- 548.762 1 Everest 4 462.868 --- 462.868 1 Hors normes 5 356.830 --- 356.830 1 Terminator - Dark Fate 6 198.082 +0 826.674 3 Der Junge und die Wildgänse 7 160.057 +9 416.924 2 Angry Birds 2 8 157.143 +0 418.841 2 Shaun das Schaf 2 9 134.223 -34 1.521.483 5 Au nom de la terre 10 109.618 --- 109.618 1 Sorry We Missed You 30.10.2019 - 3.11.2019 Nr. Bes. % Ges. Wo. Film 1 695.197 -6 4.530.085 4 Joker 2 569.819 +4 1.360.232 2 Everest 3 521.618 -6 2.075.292 3 Maleficent 2 4 441.591 -5 1.060.366 2 Hors normes 5 267.186 --- 267.186 1 Zombieland 2 6 248.072 --- 248.072 1 Mon chien Stupide 7 247.267 -31 696.720 2 Termiantor - Dark Fate 8 195.526 -1 1.113.718 4 Der Junge und die Wildgänse 9 133.013 -15 625.340 3 Shaun das Schaf 2 10 131.451 --- 131.451 1 Doctor Sleeps Erwachen 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lor15 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Maleficent 2 was flat for 3 weekends 😲 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aristis Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 Maleficent does great indeed! She's coming for the 5th biggest of the Disney LA (all numbers in Mio): OD OW OWeek Total Multipler TLK 0,630 2,559 3,253 9,750 x3,81 2019 Alice 0,252 1,418 1,600 4,537 x3,20 2010 TJB 0,278 1,090 1,303 3,720 x3,41 2016 BATB 0,269 1,143 1,282 3,568 x3,12 2017 Maleficent2 0,066 0,549 0,786 3,000+* x5,47 2019 Aladdin 0,078 0,471 0,563 2,510 x5,33 2019 Dumbo 0,085 0,470 0,551 2,392 x5,09 2019 Maleficent 0,086 0,548 0,628 2,047 x3,74 2014 Cinderella 0,086 0,573 0,636 1,722 x3,01 2015 OZ 0,124 0,633 0,788 1,590 x2,51 2013 MP 0,044 0,293 0,390 1,535 x5,24 2018 Nutcracker 0,049 0,229 0,255 0,802 x3,50 2018 *it can certainly go higher but as holiday seems to end I don't really know where it's headed - it'll definitely get the biggest multi though 4th biggest to 8th biggest: WE #4 BATB #5 Maleficent2 #6 Aladdin #7 Dumbo #8 Maleficent 1st 1,143M --- 1,143M 549k --- 549k 471k --- 471k 470k --- 470k 548k --- 548k 2nd 584k -49% 1,866M 555k 1% 1,341M 513k +9% 1,076M 403k -14% 954k 240k -56% 868k 3rd 311k -47% 2,296M 522k -6% 2,075M 331k -35% 1,464M 320k -21% 1,399M 153k -36% 1,112M 4th 281k -10% 2,712M 187k -44% 1,813M 184k -42% 1,719M 106k -31% 1,256M 5th 212k -25% 3,050M 104k -44% 1,945M 208k +13% 2,004M 181k 70% 1,470M 6th 127k -40% 3,221M 117k +12% 2,089M 116k -44% 2,157M 122k -32% 1,685M 7th 69k -45% 3,347M 77k -34% 2,231M 73k -37% 2,241M 88k -28% 1,823M 3,568M 3,000M 2,510M 2,392M 2,047M 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ 95 Posted November 6, 2019 Share Posted November 6, 2019 (edited) Weekly Actual 30 Oct - 5 Nov Joker 776k (-22% from LW) Abominable 585k (-26%) Mal 2 554k (-28%) Zombieland 2 297k New Terminator DF 274k (-39%) Doctor Sleep 148k New As expected for Mal 2 and Abominable to drop higher in weekdays (Mon-Tue) than other movie after school holidays. Joker also only get 81k this week dropping from 260k last week, but that's also a bit expected I guess because last 3 week school holidays really help it's weekdays to never gone below 200k ( 250k, 280k and 260k last week). Next week forecast 6 -12 November Joker 505k (-35%) Mal 2 220k (-60%) Abominable 205k (-65%) Zombieland 2 150k (-50%) Terminator DF 140k (-50%) Doctor Sleep 75k (-50%) Next week there is Monday holiday in France. So let's hope they underestimate again like last weekend. http://www.cine-directors.net/boxoff.htm http://www.cine-directors.net/boxbis.htm Edited November 6, 2019 by RJ 95 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
