Official France Box Office Thread

[Aristis]

11 hours ago, LPLC said:

With this big 3th week number for frozen 2, and with holidays and Christmas coming next week, can Frozen 2 surpass 7 million admissions and $55M in France ?

As pointed out several times 7M+ should be more like the floor and with the increased ATP ($7,9 now vs. $7,2 after OW) $55M+ would happen too.

[Linkinitouille]

Top 10 Weekend December 11-15

 

Rank	Title	Distributor	Admissions	Prints	Average	Total	Week
1	FROZEN II	DISNEY	558 001    (-36%)	666	838	5 076 524	4
2	JUMANJI: THE NEXT LEVEL	SONY	480 441    (-31%)	676	711	1 266 077	2
3	THE ADDAMS FAMILY	UNIVERSAL	185 652    (-28%)	522	356	511 503	2
4	DOCTEUR?	APOLLO	175 317    (NEW)	414	423	175 317	1
5	LE MEILLEUR RESTE À VENIR	PATHÉ	155 140    (-32%)	675	230	472 025	2
6	LES MISÉRABLES	LE PACTE	150 664    (-32%)	868	174	1 363 410	4
7	KNIVES OUT	METROPOLITAN	112 898    (-25%)	521	217	580 195	3
8	JOYEUSE RETRAITE!	SND	95 280      (-23%)	491	194	1 018 693	4
9	J'ACCUSE (AN OFFICER AND A SPY)	GAUMONT	73 349      (-36%)	620	118	1 369 505	5
10	LATTE & THE MAGIC WATERSTONE	KMBO	66 611      (NEW)	306	218	180 734	2

 

A very similar weekend compared to the previous ones, as the top 3 stays the same: Frozen II, Jumanji TNL, and The Addams Family. Pretty much every released movie has around a 30% drop. As such, Jumanji TNL, Joyeuse Retraite and Le Mans '66 (now outside the top 10) all crossed the famed 1M admissions mark. The Addams Family will reach it thanks to the Christmas vacation, while Knives Out has very decent holds and could create a surprise. It will be harder for Le meilleur reste à venir.

 

The only new releases to crack the top 10 are, first, Docteur?, a french comedy topping the 4th spot. It's a rather low opening but we've seen much worse by bigger releases, and the holidays are just around the corner so it could do 600-700k. Latte & The Magic Waterstone, a small-budget animated feature, gets the top 10 spot thanks to its large amount of previews compared to its score (17k in previews for 67k total).

 

Other movies released last wednesday are failing, Black Christmas and A Hidden Life from Terrence Malick don't get much more than 50k admissions over 5 days. It's clear that the french market is waiting on Star Wars and the Christmas holiday period to pack the cinemas.

[Aristis]

WE	Frozen 1			Frozen 2
1st	776	---	954	1.980	---	1.980
2nd	656	-15%	1.697	1.347	-32%	3.485
3rd	619	-6%	2.434	866	-36%	4.439
4th	752	21%	3.471	558	-36%	5.077
5th	646	-14%	4.384
6th	151	-77%	4.565
7th	124	-18%	4.698
8th	95	-23%	4.802
			5,152M			7,000M

[LPLC]

What are you expecting about OD, OW and total admissions for SW9 in France ?

[Linkinitouille]

5 hours ago, LPLC said:

What are you expecting about OD, OW and total admissions for SW9 in France ?

OD = 600k

OW = 2.2M

OWeek = 3M (monday and tuesday being in school vacation period)

Total = 7.5M (a bit above TLJ but way below TFA)

 

Note that 215k tickets for this week have been sold in presales only at Pathé Gaumont. On par with Avengers: Endgame.

In comparison:

Avengers Endgame: 216k

The Lion King: 104k

Frozen 2: 78k

Spider-Man FFH: 55k

Captain Marvel: 45k

Joker: 25k

[Linkinitouille]

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker OD: 392 783 admissions on 731 cinemas.

 

In comparison:

 

The Phantom Menace: 450 531 admissions on 793 cinemas

Attack of the Clones: 453 203 admissions on 836 cinemas

Revenge of the Sith: 641 799 admissions on 938 cinemas

The Force Awakens: 619 020 admissions on 1 093 cinemas

Rogue One: 271 902 admissions on 910 cinemas

The Last Jedi: 503 727 admissions on 1 027 cinemas

Solo: 89 338 admissions on 844 cinemas

 

A 37% drop compared to TFA, and a 22% drop compared to TLJ. The number of cinemas is lower (but the difference is made on smaller cinemas with less screenings per day), and there was a strike that prevented some people in the Paris region to go to cinemas normally. There was though a feeling that this episode had less expectations around it.

Edited December 19, 2019 by Linkinitouille

[Legion Again]

On 12/18/2019 at 1:28 AM, Linkinitouille said:

OD = 600k

 

2 hours ago, Linkinitouille said:

OD: 392 783

I am no France expert here, but seems like maybe coming in a bit under expectations 🤔

[Linkinitouille]

Yeah, that score is definitely underwhelming, I really thought expectations would come back as the marketing campaign greatly pushed the movie these last weeks and the market seemed to wait for the release of SW9. It's only the 4th biggest OD of the year behind Avengers: Endgame, The Lion King and Spider-Man: Far From Home (the last one having benefitted from a nationwide operation called the Fête du cinéma where every ticket is sold at €4 without extras).

 

This is the lowest OD for a main SW movie ever. I'm excluding the original trilogy as releases weren't as wide in the 70s-80s as they are today. 

Edited December 19, 2019 by Linkinitouille

[Parasite]

On 12/18/2019 at 10:28 AM, Linkinitouille said:

 

 

 

8 hours ago, Linkinitouille said:

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker OD: 392 783 admissions on 731 cinemas.

Wow. Is that the lowest PS to OD multi ever ? Even Endgame was nowhere as frontloaded as this.

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, Parasite said:

 

Wow. Is that the lowest PS to OD multi ever ? Even Endgame was nowhere as frontloaded as this.

I think it normal for SW movies everywhere in the world if they do 2m in ps they might get 3m and other might get 5m from those 2m. SW movie since TFA have always been the most ps heavy movies in the world.

[Linkinitouille]

1 hour ago, Parasite said:

 

Wow. Is that the lowest PS to OD multi ever ? Even Endgame was nowhere as frontloaded as this.

The 215k PS number is for the entire week, not just for OD.

[John Marston]

France - $5.3M so far for TROS
 

[LPLC]

Hi, I'm from France, and here we expect a total of 2,4-2,8 millions admissions by next tuesday, what are your expectations for OW and LF forecast for SW in France ?

[Linkinitouille]

Top 10 Weekend December 18-22

 

Rank	Title	Distributor	Admissions	Prints	Average	Total	Week
1	STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER	DISNEY	1 886 610 (NEW)	731	2 581	1 886 610	1
2	FROZEN II	DISNEY	475 426    (-15%)	879	541	5 625 531	5
3	JUMANJI: THE NEXT LEVEL	SONY	329 936    (-31%)	644	512	1 654 244	3
4	THE ADDAMS FAMILY	UNIVERSAL	156 486    (-16%)	646	242	696 792	3
5	DOCTEUR ?	APOLLO	126 411    (-24%)	440	287	348 830	2
6	VIC THE VIKING AND THE MAGIC SWORD	SND	125 663    (NEW)	427	294	125 663	1
7	LES MISÉRABLES	LE PACTE	107 321    (-29%)	640	168	1 510 906	5
8	LE MEILLEUR RESTE À VENIR	PATHÉ	107 127    (-31%)	788	136	624 634	3
9	KNIVES OUT	METROPOLITAN	82 328      (-27%)	502	164	689 107	4
10	NOTRE DAME	AD VITAM	80 085      (NEW)	256	313	80 085	1

 

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is here, and claims the 4th biggest OW of the year behind Avengers: Endgame, The Lion King, and Frozen II. Even though that opening is massive, that's a 30% drop compared to The Force Awakens, and a 14% drop compared to The Last Jedi. It does confirm the loss of interest over the years for Disney's Star Wars. The final score should be lower than 7M, basically on par with Avengers: Endgame.

 

Vic the Viking, with a daring move to open alongside Star Wars in a crowded market for children, manages to get 6th place. With the school break, it will do better over days, but I don't expect it to go above 600k with that OW. Notre Dame, a french comedy about the famous cathedral, also gets into the top 10, but its market is already taken by Docteur and Le meilleur reste à venir.

 

Most already released movies hold very well and their week-to-week numbers can only increase from now as the Christmas school break has started, and will last until January 6. Frozen II is now above the first one and is still on trail for 7M+, while Jumanji: The Next Level will definitely have trouble to equal the score done by Welcome to the Jungle, while still going well above 2M.

Edited December 23, 2019 by Linkinitouille

[Aristis]

SW9 with a disappointing OW:

WE	SW7			SW8			SW9
1st	2.705	---	2.705	2.189	---	2.189	1.887	---	1.887
2nd	1.966	-27%	5.767	943	-57%	3.453
3rd	1.542	-22%	8.345	1.315	39%	5.341
4th	627	-59%	9.140	770	-41%	6.444
5th	382	-39%	9.611	222	-71%	6.725
6th	245	-36%	9.927	143	-36%	6.902
7th	164	-33%	10.128	75	-48%	7.001
000000	000000	000000	10,315M	000000	000000	7,077M	000000	000000	6,500M

 

F2 with its first small drop:

WE	Frozen 1			Frozen 2
1st	776	---	954	1.980	---	1.980
2nd	656	-15%	1.697	1.347	-32%	3.485
3rd	619	-6%	2.434	866	-36%	4.439
4th	752	21%	3.471	558	-36%	5.077
5th	646	-14%	4.384	475	-15%	5.626
6th	151	-77%	4.565
7th	124	-18%	4.698
8th	95	-23%	4.802
000000	000000	000000	5,152M	000000	000000	7,000M

 

[PKMLover]

@Aristis Can Frozen 2 approach 7.5M ? 

[Aristis]

2 hours ago, PKMLover said:

@Aristis Can Frozen 2 approach 7.5M ? 

That'll probably depend on the legs after holiday - it had to have legs close to its predecessor over the christmas holidays though. Running like that one (F1's 3rd WE would be the counterpart to F2's 5th) it would add close to 2,1M for 7,7M admissions. F2 is likely not to hold as good as that though. I would still expect 7M to 7,25M admissions ($50M to $52M).

[danhtruong5]

Just now, Aristis said:

That'll probably depend on the legs after holiday - it had to have legs close to its predecessor over the christmas holidays though. Running like that one (F1's 3rd WE would be the counterpart to F2's 5th) it would add close to 2,1M for 7,7M admissions. F2 is likely not to hold as good as that though. I would still expect 7M to 7,25M admissions ($50M to $52M).

I think it should be $55M+ at the end? The ATP is not that low ?

[Aristis]

9 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said:

I think it should be $55M+ at the end? The ATP is not that low ?

According to estimates the total after Sun was $40,5M and 5,626M admissions. Might go up but for now it is.

[danhtruong5]

On 12/11/2019 at 6:56 PM, Aristis said:

As pointed out several times 7M+ should be more like the floor and with the increased ATP ($7,9 now vs. $7,2 after OW) $55M+ would happen too.

I thought the ATP was 7.9 as you mentioned here