The Official TASM Weekly Thread (6 Day EST-140m) (Warning: Whiten Out Spoilers/Spoiler Tags)

[cremino]

First of all, Rth's original estimate last night was 15.8-16.8 -- so once again, he basically nailed it.

Secondly, the number is not great for Spidey, but it's completely expected. It's very similar to the TRANSFORMERS post-Fourth drop.

Thirdly, don't expect a big Friday bump at all. TRANSFORMERS jumped 18%. I'd be surprised if TASM goes above 21% -- I think the range is +16-21% today.

So where is headed Spider man for the OW and the total?

[Jay Beezy]

$75m + $125m = $200m 6 dayI'm implying that he wouldn't give up hope of his $200m OW.

Whoops, read your original post wrong.

[Chewy]

So where is headed Spider man for the OW and the total?

Should be around 60 this weekend and 260, give or take a few M, total

[iceroll]

First of all, Rth's original estimate last night was 15.8-16.8 -- so once again, he basically nailed it.

Secondly, the number is not great for Spidey, but it's completely expected. It's very similar to the TRANSFORMERS post-Fourth drop.

Thirdly, don't expect a big Friday bump at all. TRANSFORMERS jumped 18%. I'd be surprised if TASM goes above 21% -- I think the range is +16-21% today.

Well I'd say it was worse than expected, a lot of posters were expecting a lighter Thursday drop because Wednesday had such a poor hold. It would have been fine if it stayed flat or increased like Transformers, but after an already steep 32% drop, another 32% drop is definitely on the disappointing side.

[Shawn Robbins]

So where is headed Spider man for the OW and the total?

See my post above. Roughly $60m 3-day.

[Dementeleus]

So where is headed Spider man for the OW and the total?

OW $56-59m, I think. Total, might be around what I originally guessed, in the $230s.

[Dementeleus]

Well I'd say it was worse than expected, a lot of posters were expecting a lighter Thursday drop because Wednesday had such a poor hold. It would have been fine if it stayed flat or increased like Transformers, but after an already steep 32% drop, another 32% drop is definitely on the disappointing side.

But I think they were hoping more than actually looking at the numbers. Looking at other years where the Fourth fell on a weekday, all the post-Fourth drops were fairly significant -- 25-40%. Expecting better than that wasn't justified by the data.

[Walt Disney]

Should be around 60 this weekend and 260, give or take a few M, total

The plot thickens on the Baumer/AA bet. How in the world did those 2 manage to bet whether the movie would make over/under $260M? That is just fascinating.

[The Futurist]

Except Nolan had already made an amazing movie in Memento, which was a psychological thriller. Which actually makes him a good choice to direct BB and TDK, with 2 villains who use mind games (Raz and Joker) and a superhero that does the same (Batman).Webb made a rom com.

Again, the worst thing about Nolan is not his movies, it s his fans who are annoying as frak.

[iceroll]

But I think they were hoping more than actually looking at the numbers. Looking at other years where the Fourth fell on a weekday, all the post-Fourth drops were fairly significant -- 25-40%. Expecting better than that wasn't justified by the data.

Yeah I'm just preemptively trying to stop the loonies from spinning it as good

[Dementeleus]

Yeah I'm just preemptively trying to stop the loonies from spinning it as good

[RTX]

Assuming $23.4m Wednesday:

Thu: $16m (-32%)

Fri: $18.9m (+18%)

Sat: $21.4m (+13%)

Sun: $18.8m (-12%)

3-day: $59.1m

6-day: $133.5m

This is about where I see it landing with a relatively optimistic trajectory of $260-275m domestic. Still not too shabby compared to the worst case scenario many of us thought would happen before Tuesday.

This final total would have been realistic, if TASM had no TDKR in its 3rd weekend. As such I wouldn't be surprised if its 6-day will account for 55% of its final total.

[Magic]

Again, the worst thing about Nolan is not his movies, it s his fans who are annoying as frak.

[Fake]

Shitty number for Spidey. It better jump over 20% today.....

[RTX]

Again, the worst thing about Nolan is not his movies, it s his fans who are annoying as frak.

Everything he said is true. Nolan is a real director and storyteller. TASM's helmer is a misic video guy.

[RTX]

Shitty number for Spidey. It better jump over 20% today.....

Any reason for it to jump better than Transformers in 2007?

[Walt Disney]

Shitty number for Spidey. It better jump over 20% today.....

Are you looking for a specific number this weekend? Or do you just want to see a jump in the upwards direction?

[Dementeleus]

Everything he said is true. Nolan is a real director and storyteller. TASM's helmer is a misic video guy.

Nope, that's not fair to Webb either. He's an established features director now, even if he doesn't have tons of experience. He's basically at where Nolan was post-INSOMNIA... maybe a bit more experienced from all the music videos (plus TASM was a bigger, more complicated shoot than INSOMNIA).

[filmnerdjamie]

Everything he said is true. Nolan is a real director and storyteller who does his own thing. TASM's helmer is a guy following orders from higher ups.

Corrected that for ya.

[The Futurist]

The hate is strong with these ones.