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Thor 2 OS thread

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Thor 3 could make 1B!

 

 

No

 

May be Senny Trans thinks Thor 3 could gross 200m in china alone. That still wont be enough for thor to hit 1B. Asia can add another 50-80M but I think it has peaked in developed markets and even LA markets are not growing much. Domestic also I dont see growth. So 1B WW for thor is impossible unless there is some other catalyst(may be add another avenger or something like that).

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May be Senny Trans thinks Thor 3 could gross 200m in china alone. That still wont be enough for thor to hit 1B. Asia can add another 50-80M but I think it has peaked in developed markets and even LA markets are not growing much. Domestic also I dont see growth. So 1B WW for thor is impossible unless there is some other catalyst(may be add another avenger or something like that).

Agree. Unless Thor3 is called Thor vs Ironman there is no chance it will hit 1B
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How are legs in asai/la. Next weekend also is open for it and so another good week and then CF will impact it somewhat. Anyway markets like china are not good for long runs.

I doubt that it will drop under 50% next weekend with no new markets opening
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Mon + Tue was only 23m.

 

Current markets: 11 + 12 + 10.5 + 9 + 12 + 20 + 16 = 90m week. So around 200M by Sunday. And there are China ($25m) and a dozen of other small markets ($10~15, Chile, Georgia, Macedonia, Peru, Serbia,Thailand, India 8, Poland, Romania,Vietnam) this weekend.

 

So yeah 240m OS by Sunday is possible but it may not hit that range.

 

With 50% weekly drop from now on, it will finish with around 365m OS. Adding Japan (15m) + Itlay (15m) + Argentina (10m) + rest markets = 410M OS

 

With 40% weekly drop, which will be very hard since South America/China/Asia markets are always frontloading, from now on, it will finish with around 420m OS. Adding Japan (15m) + Itlay (15m) + Argentina (10m) + rest markets = 460M OS

 

Or so.

The range is still there.

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Looking at everything i think 450 m is out of the question in fact could this possibly only barely pass 400 or fall short ?What I am thinking360 m from current markets (too low or too high ?13m from Italy10 m from Japan 5m from Argentina10m from other markets 397 m total?It should get over 400 I think but barely

Edited by John Marston
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Looking at everything i think 450 m is out of the question in fact could this possibly only barely pass 400 or fall short ?What I am thinking360 m from current markets (too low or too high ?13m from Italy10 m from Japan5m from Argentina10m from other markets397 m total?It should get over 400 I think but barely

 

Asia had good holds last week and Russia was part of extended OW. Its projections depend on how they hold this week. But the market is still quite open for thor and so I think it can get close to 400M from existing markets.

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Let's put it this way.....

 

The weekend was $94m. Say the weekdays bring another 40m. So the whole week is 134m with a cume of 281m.

 

Its finish in current markets with certain weekly drops will be:

60% - 370m

55% - 390m

50% - 415m

45% - 445m

 

For remaining markets:

 

Italy - 12-15m

Japan - 8-10m

Argentina - 4-5m

Rest - 4-5m (I don't think that many markets are left now)

Total - ~30m

 

So even with 60% drops, Thor 2 should cross 400m. I think 55% drops are more likely, which means around 420m finish.

 

Even if it has good holds (50% weekly drops) and good performance in remaining markets, it may reach 450m, but that's it.

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