Fake Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I don't know. Expecting really good holds from current markets seems kind of optimistic. Especially considering the competition coming up. As long as next weekend stays above 40m, 400m finish won't be a problem. If it drops over 60% however, then there is cause for worry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Russia/China etc are not known for great legs. Next weekend drop will be harsh bcos of that. May be europe will stabilize after mediocre drops last weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 As long as next weekend stays above 40m, 400m finish won't be a problem. If it drops over 60% however, then there is cause for worry. no new openings next week so it will have to rely totally on holds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Russia/China etc are not known for great legs. Next weekend drop will be harsh bcos of that. May be europe will stabilize after mediocre drops last weekend. It's not going to drop hard in China next week as gross will be 7 days vs 3 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 I don't know. Expecting really good holds from current markets seems kind of optimistic. Especially considering the competition coming up. It had a strong hold in Asia last week, Australian drop was good and drops in Europe should be much better this weekend as OW was extended in quite few places. 400M is locked especially with Thanksgiving holidays coming up. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 Let's put it this way..... The weekend was $94m. Say the weekdays bring another 40m. So the whole week is 134m with a cume of 281m. Its finish in current markets with certain weekly drops will be: 60% - 370m 55% - 390m 50% - 415m 45% - 445m For remaining markets: Italy - 12-15m Japan - 8-10m Argentina - 4-5m Rest - 4-5m (I don't think that many markets are left now) Total - ~30m So even with 60% drops, Thor 2 should cross 400m. I think 55% drops are more likely, which means around 420m finish. Even if it has good holds (50% weekly drops) and good performance in remaining markets, it may reach 450m, but that's it. Mon-Thursday from last week was 42m off a 110M Weekend. You think $40m for this Mon-Thu is happening ? If you base your holdings (60%, 55%, 50%, 45%) from last full week (241m- 110m = 131m) instead of from the nex full week starting this Friday, you will have cut off 40m from (370m, 390m, 415m, 455m). So the range from current markets should be somewhere between (330m, 350, 375m, 415m) and (370m, 390, 415m, 455m) with drops (60%, 55%, 50%, 45%). ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 (edited) Mon-Thursday from last week was 42m off a 110M Weekend. You think $40m for this Mon-Thu is happening ? If you take out the extra days of the extended openings during OW, then the weekend was around $100m or even lower. Plus China and other Asian countries which opened this week generally have stronger weekdays/weekend ratio than Europe. If you base your holdings (60%, 55%, 50%, 45%) from last full week (241m- 110m = 131m) instead of from the nex full week starting this Friday, you will have cut off 40m from (370m, 390m, 415m, 455m). So the range from current markets should be somewhere between (330m, 350, 375m, 415m) and (370m, 390, 415m, 455m) with drops (60%, 55%, 50%, 45%). ?? If you consider the Mon-Sun period last week, then you won't be able to account for the weekday business of China and other markets that opened last weekend, so naturally you will get a lower figure than what should be. Therefore I projected a Mon-Thurs figure and took the whole Fri-Thurs week. This way all the weekday business from current markets will be added. However since no new significant markets are opening this week, you can safely take this week's Mon-Sun weekly figure for the next round of calculations. Suppose it does 80m this week (40m weekdays + 40m weekend), then you can say that with 60% drops, it will finish with 241 + 80/0.6 = 374m. Edited November 12, 2013 by Fake Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deathlife Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 (edited) Wow, is CF actually going to hit Thor that hard OS? Thor is 3-D only in some territories and it's not going to lose those screens to CF unless it tapers off on its own.The only movies that have lots of steam going into X-mas here in SA are Thor and the Hobbit. Honestly, outside of Europe, I'm not sure CF will make big box office like Thor or The Hobbit.The first Hunger Games had a very limited impact here and CF looks to continue that trend. Edited November 12, 2013 by Deathlife Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ent Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 (edited) Wow, is CF actually going to hit Thor that hard OS? Thor is 3-D only in some territories and it's not going to lose those screens to CF unless it tapers off on its own.The only movies that have lots of steam going into X-mas here in SA are Thor and the Hobbit. Honestly, outside of Europe, I'm not sure CF will make big box office like Thor or The Hobbit.The first Hunger Games had a very limited impact here and CF looks to continue that trend. I think both Hobbit2 and Frozen (because it's the last animation and it's well placed at the end of the year for kids) are the movies that will hit every others including CF. Hobbit 2 may hit $100M respectively in both Germany and the UK and $50M each in France, Australia and Russia. I think it will be massive in a lot of european markets and impact the progression of all the other blockbusters in those markets, especially if recently released. Edited November 12, 2013 by Ent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorWho Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 It opened with 58,800 admissions here, better than IM3 which had 46,681. Last year TA started with 48,555. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shantal Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 In Bulgaria its first weekend [3 day] was 19% higher in terms of gross than the 4 day opening weekend of Thor 1 in 2011. Thor 2 had an almost identical opening to The Avengers, less than a percent difference. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SentryTrans Posted November 12, 2013 Share Posted November 12, 2013 With stolen gross in China, 400m won't be a problem. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zackzack Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 With stolen gross in China, 400m won't be a problem. What does that mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SentryTrans Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 What does that mean? Avatar made more than 250m in China, but more than 50m was stolen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalel009Shel Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Avatar made more than 250m in China, but more than 50m was stolen. Oh you mean the pirating..... I think Part 2 of Avatar will pass 350-400+Mil I:).. Wow so thor could cross the 600-700+M mark..Yikes I want it to do well, but not top Supes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Oh you mean the pirating..... I think Part 2 of Avatar will pass 350-400+MilI:).. Wow so thor could cross the 600-700+M mark..Yikes I want it to do well, but not top Supes Nah kal.. He means stolen by the Chinese goverment 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leyla Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Oh you mean the pirating..... I think Part 2 of Avatar will pass 350-400+Mil I:).. Wow so thor could cross the 600-700+M mark..Yikes I want it to do well, but not top Supes beating mos is not locked i wish it was obv Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 Yeah seems tough now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shantal Posted November 13, 2013 Share Posted November 13, 2013 (edited) Thor 2 fell -41.9% in its second weekend in Bulgaria and is already at 90% of Thor's 1 gross and has another weekend with nothing big opening before THG2. Some other interesting facts from looking at BOM: In Colombia it had two weekends with national holidays on Monday, but fell just 14% on it's second while loosing 14% of it screens to 3 new releases. It had the second smallest drop in the top 10. In Malaysia Thor 2 is already the 4th highest grossing movie of 2013, soon to become 3rd. Iron Man 3 and Fast & Furious 6 are 1st and 2nd. In Mexico it fell 46%, compared to 55% for Thor 1 [a note, that was when Fast 5 opened] and 54% for Iron Man 3, and has already made 80% of Thor's 1 total. Mexico's was Thor's 1 third biggest OS market after UK and Australia. In Slovakia its opening weekend gross was 99% of Thor's 1 total. Thor's 2 gross after its second weekend has already surpassed Thor's 1 total in these OS markets: Austria Brazil Bulgaria Colombia Finland Hong Kong India Malaysia Philippines Russia [according to what is announced on this board's Russia's tread] Singapore Thailand In many other territories it's at 95%+ of Thor's 1 total gross like UK, South Korea etc. Edited November 13, 2013 by Shantal 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted November 16, 2013 Share Posted November 16, 2013 how is this holding up this week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
