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What is up with these reactions? Every comparable Tue/Wed July 4th opening film, from TF1 to SM2 and from Hancock to SR, all dropped at least 8% on their comparable Thursdays. This drop is completely in line, if not better.http://boxofficemojo...id4openings.htm

indeed, I guess for ASM the rules apply differently. Other films drop 8% on Thursday. It is normal, ASM does it, it is flopping, showing bad WOM etc. Edited by John Marston
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Yeah I expect it to be around 28m this weekend and 10m next weekend, if not a bit lower in both cases.

It's not going to drop 65% against TDK. That's the sext number but Hancock fell 55% against TDK, the most I can see Spidey fall is 58%. But 60 is too much, imo.
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indeed, I guess for ASM the rules apply differently

It's a polarizing film. Not a lot of apathy towards it, either love it or hate it.
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Except it is not silly. Assuming Sony has ~300m or more into TASM including marketing, distribution and everything, then they would in fact be looking at 700m as a break even point. The percent of foreign gross that the studio gets to keep is not as high as it is domesitcally.

That is why it is silly, cause you are assuming...there is no source for any of these expenses. These discussion about profitability never goes anywhere because people are just guessing and throwing out big numbers.
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It's not going to drop 65% against TDK. That's the sext number but Hancock fell 55% against TDK, the most I can see Spidey fall is 58%. But 60 is too much, imo.

I suppose. I still think TDKR will wipe it from existence, and I mean that literally. Who will care about TASM when the TDKR hype machine is in full force come this time next week?
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It is a domestic disappointment, that's a fact. No two words about it. Before the film came out we pretty much all agreed that 280m is the break or make point. It's doing lower than that. Losing third of its audience is considered doing well?

I never said $280m was any such thing. $250 is acceptable when the sequel is expected to go up.
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I never said $280m was any such thing. $250 is acceptable when the sequel is expected to go up.

i don't think that's a fair assumption though. Why would it go up when this one was really split? I think there's a good chance the next one goes down. This isn't exactly revered like Batman Begins.
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Bad number for TASM, I'm having a hard time believing its trajectory is indicative of strong WOM. 250M seems to be the domestic target, and 800M WW still is not assured. You can't call the movie a box office failure but you can certainly call it a disappointment.

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It's not going to drop 65% against TDK. That's the sext number but Hancock fell 55% against TDK, the most I can see Spidey fall is 58%. But 60 is too much, imo.

Hancock wasn't in IMAX, and being a Will Smith film it was less of a direct competition to TDK compared to your average run-of-the-mill superhero movie. Also, the number of digital screens has increased dramatically since 2008. I can foresee a scenario where theaters would cancel Spidey showings over the weekend and give those extra screens to TDKR.
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i don't think that's a fair assumption though. Why would it go up when this one was really split? I think there's a good chance the next one goes down. This isn't exactly revered like Batman Begins.

It's overall positive. At least as good as Thor or the first X men film or even First Class
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This reminds me of when Howard Stern was at it's peak and they were discussing fans and haters of the show, it went something like"Guy 1- Fans of the show listened to it for an average of 2 hoursGuy 2- and how long did people who despise Howard Stern listen?Guy 1- 3 hours"It seems people who really dislike something take far more interest in it than people who really like it, which just seems weird to me since if I actively dislike a movie I might glance at numbers and a few comments to see what the general opinion is, but I don't make countless post of "it's a bomb" or "legs are weak", etc.

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it's because they either are determined that it's a bomb or that's legs are weak or they are trying to fool people who are uninitiated

Or they're afraid TASM might actually make money the weekend TDKR opens and don't want any $$$ taken from it. God---oops, sorry, NOLAN forbid TASM has even a nano sized effect on TDKR. :P :P :P

Apparently 190m OW won't be enough. ;)

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