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CJohn

Monday (7/23/12) Numbers: The Dark Knight Rises - 19.5M

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The dark alfred is right. Nobody can claim victory.I think it is reasonable to conclude that Avengers record would have been safe, but thats it. It would have come with 5 million of 200 million imo, which makes it a crapshoot.No side can claim victory....200 million...SECOND WEEKEND club!

lol

At least someone recognized me getting my bkb esque troll on. Edited by ExcelFTW
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The point is that it is arrogant to claim something unreachable when it's undecided. I have a decency to accept that I could be wrong, but you don't. You claim that your sub 200m prediction is justified, whereas it's obvious that we'll never know for sure. You fail to see that it is not a debate over predictions anymore, I do not argue for 200m, I'm stressing the the principle to accept that there are no winners here. It's a case that will never be solved. Why can't some accept that we'll never find out what could have been, why do you have to argue that 200m wouldn't have happened anyway when it's not priority anymore. And more importantly, how inappropriate from you to try to quantify the impact of the tragedy. That what's make me sad not your prediction, I have never judge people based on that.

You're sure changing your tune now. Now you're saying that it's completely impossible to say for sure what it could have done when the whole reason I even posted what I did was because a few pages back you were boasting about how TDKR would have been locked for 500m+ without the tragedy,. So make up your mind, is it impossible to gauge what it could do or was it locked to gross whatever it is you thought would? Because this whole argument could have been avoided if you had just said this in the first place. I mean of course it's impossible to ever truly know the exact gross it would have made on OW under normal circumstances. I don't think it's impossible though to have an idea or a range. For example we know it wouldn't have done $240m or something.
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My theatre has TONNES of sellouts today. The most i've seen since Friday (Opening day)....although discount Tuesdays are quite popular here.

Canadian grosses jump 100% due to discount Tuesdays.
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John Marsten.. (lol loved the Character in the game)I think we need to make one thing clear.TA And TDK were the two biggest openings in NA ever even in ticket sales.That is not the case overseas.So there is a correlation that would suggest TDKR could have opened to TDK or TA ticket sales.However not so much that it would open to 200 million or TA numbers.

Edited by Lordmandeep
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You know, I personally think it is factual that TDKR would have actually made 300 mill OW. It is possible. All it had to do was sell out every seat to every showing every day on Friday Saturday and Sunday. The shooting ruined that too. This would have probably sold out every seat to every show every day for two weeks straight making it the first 10 billion dollar grossing film. People wouldn't work or see their spouses or pick up their kids....it would just be TDKR for 14 days straight.

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John Marsten.. (lol loved the Character in the game)I think we need to make one thing clear.TA And TDK were the two biggest openings in NA ever even in ticket sales.That is not the case overseas.So there is a correlation that would suggest TDKR could have opened to TDK or TA ticket sales.However not so much that it would open to 200 million or TA numbers.

Agree but without the shooting I think it would have come closer. 180-190m
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Australia is not an expanding m arket. Also, it doesn't matter. The fact is, people returned in Australia, but not in the US? That is bullshit

Oh really? TDK opened in 472 theaters in Australia. TDKR in 628, or +25% more theaters than TDK did. Sure seems like expansion to me.For comparisons sake TDKR had a +1% theater expansion in the US over TDK. Edited by MovieMan89
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yeah the question was record breaking ticket sales or not for TDKR...I think the 30 million midnights and lesser reception (still amazing) compared to TA and TDK would have not allowed it break 190 million for the weekend,.

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No side can claim victory.

No. TA won. The shooting was a terrible thing...but what TDKR could have done without it is all woulda shoulda coulda. And it doesn't hurt that TA was a better more appealing film.
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Oh really? TDK opened in 472 theaters in Australia. TDKR in 628, or +25% more theaters than TDK did. Sure seems like expansion to me.For comparisons sake TDKR had a +1% theater expansion in the US over TDK.

Stop using facts and logic MovieMan! It won't work.
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Are people still actually suggesting on here that the Aurora tragedy somehow shaved a possible $30, 40, or even 50m off of TDKR's OW? If so, I can only conclude they're doing so in order to comfort themselves over what they view as a major disappointment at the BO. But wow, I find that ludicrous. Let 'em go tho, I say, it must be their way of coping. Hey, ya know, whatever gets you to sleep at night.

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You're sure changing your tune now. Now you're saying that it's completely impossible to say for sure what it could have done when the whole reason I even posted what I did was because a few pages back you were boasting about how TDKR would have been locked for 500m+ without the tragedy,. So make up your mind, is it impossible to gauge what it could do or was it locked to gross whatever it is you thought would? Because this whole argument could have been avoided if you had just said this in the first place. I mean of course it's impossible to ever truly know the exact gross it would have made on OW under normal circumstances. I don't think it's impossible though to have an idea or a range. For example we know it wouldn't have done $240m or something.

The argument would have been avoided if you read my posts. As I said the problem is that you claim that 500m was out of reach, which is nonsense. I pointed out that many insiders and analyst expected it to hit 500m, so for you to say that there were clear signs that it had no chance is out of order. Your wording is arrogant. Many people are on your side, yet I'm not having an argument with them, I respect your prediction, but there's a difference between having a point and defending it and make claims for it and declare it as the benchmark. And you tried to quantify the impact of the tragedy, which I am vehemently against. I have never said that it would have hit 200m without the shooting for sure, I said it could have, but we don't know. Edited by The Dark Alfred
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