Thursday (7/26/12) Numbers: The Dark Knight Rises - 13.202M

[Letsuseournoggin]

DMC is a very good comparison so far. Hopefully, it'll have better legs and push beyond 450M. Plus with the tragedy and media's hysteria, for it to get with in 80M of TDK will be a nice comeback.TDKR would make 64.5M this weekend, if it followed DMC. I think, it's safe to say most people will live with that.

I got 65.5 with DMC's weekend type of run for the weekend. So off by 1 million, although I'd bet I'm wrong and you're right. I can live with that number. Happily. Edited July 27, 2012 by Letsuseournoggin

[redfirebird2008]

So if this number holds, what is the possibilitiy of a 65 million weekend? I know it's pretty minimal but 60 should be pretty attainable right?

L.A. Times said that most in Hollywood are expecting a $65-70m weekend. I figure $65m is on the high end, but then again none of us have access to the survey information about interest in the film this weekend. I do think it's possible that this film will play more like a weekend film (kinda like TASM) than TDK, which had such huge weekdays that it made $5m less on its second weekend than the weekday total.

[ravon80]

60m for sure, anything higher is icing at this point.

[Fake]

Went down..... damn!!Should get just about 60M for the weekend......

[Olive]

Thursday's top movies: 1. DARK KNIGHT RISES - $13M ($224M), 2. ICE AGE 4 - $3.2M ($101M), 3. SPIDER-MAN - $1.5M ($235M)

TOP 10 ESTIMATES - Thur. 7/26 - TDKR $13M http://fb.me/1wUJMm0qt

[druv10]

L.A. Times said that most in Hollywood are expecting a $65-70m weekend. I figure $65m is on the high end, but then again none of us have access to the survey information about interest in the film this weekend. I do think it's possible that this film will play more like a weekend film (kinda like TASM) than TDK, which had such huge weekdays that it made $5m less on its second weekend than the weekday total.

Hopefully, your theory comes to pass and TDKR jumps 55% maybe even 60%. It would need a jump in that neighborhood to have a chance at 70M weekend.

[redfirebird2008]

Hopefully, your theory comes to pass and TDKR jumps 55% maybe even 60%. It would need a jump in that neighborhood to have a chance at 70M weekend.

The thing I'm a bit worried about canceling out some of it is the Olympics. The same working adults who don't have the time for a 3 hour movie on work nights are also old enough to appreciate watching the Olympics ceremony on Friday night.

[efialtes76]

Friday:$18.5MSaturday:$22:1MSunday:$18M2th Weekend:$58.6M(-63.6%)

[Fake]

Friday:$18.5MSaturday:$22:1MSunday:$18M2th Weekend:$58.6M(-63.6%)

I think the Saturday jump will be higher. But the Friday number very well could be lower, resulting into the same weekend number.

[druv10]

The thing I'm a bit worried about canceling out some of it is the Olympics. The same working adults who don't have the time for a 3 hour movie on work nights are also old enough to appreciate watching the Olympics ceremony on Friday night.

Saturday jump should be better to counteract opening ceremony. Maybe in the mid to high 30's.

[hasanahmad]

[Fake]

The thing I'm a bit worried about canceling out some of it is the Olympics. The same working adults who don't have the time for a 3 hour movie on work nights are also old enough to appreciate watching the Olympics ceremony on Friday night.

Yes. That's why I don't see it jumping more than 40% on Friday......TDK jumped 41% with no Olympics. Edited July 27, 2012 by Fake

[redfirebird2008]

Yes. That's why I don't see it jumping more than 40% on Friday......TDK jumped 41% with no Olympics.

TDK also had insanely huge weekdays, the biggest we've ever seen for a summer movie.

[Krissykins]

TDKR starts in 15 minutes..

You're sig is great.I am from Scotland and still live in Scotland, and I watched Trainspotting for the first time this week (I know).It's incredible.

[redfirebird2008]

Another way of looking at the Pirates 2 comparison:Pirates 2 made 28.5% of its opening week total on opening day (including midnight).TDKR made 33.7% of its opening week total on opening day (including midnight).Potter 8 made 40.3% of its opening week total on opening day (including midnight).So TDKR is about 16.4% less frontloaded than Potter 8, while Pirates 2 is about 15.4% less frontloaded than TDKR. Potter 8 ended up making another $155m while Pirates 2 ended up making another $227m. TDKR theoretically should end up in between them around $192m. That would put it at roughly $417m. Now what we cannot know at this point is how much of TDKR's audience that skipped it on opening weekend because of the shooting (roughly $20m) will show up later on. If they do, then it's looking at a total north of $430m.

[Gopher]

I actually think TDKR's dailies will be better than DMC which was dropping 58%-59% most Mondays.

[Fake]

TDK also had insanely huge weekdays, the biggest we've ever seen for a summer movie.

And insane huge weekends.......I don't see how there will be a significant effect on jumps because of that..... maybe a couple of percentages. Without Olympics, it might have jumped 45%, with it probably 35-40%.

[redfirebird2008]

I actually think TDKR's dailies will be better than DMC which was dropping 58%-59% most Mondays.

IMAX will help it in that regard.

[The Dark Alfred]

20m Fri26m Sat22m SunClose to 70m.

[Fake]

Another way of looking at the Pirates 2 comparison:Pirates 2 made 28.5% of its opening week total on opening day (including midnight).TDKR made 33.7% of its opening week total on opening day (including midnight).Potter 8 made 40.3% of its opening week total on opening day (including midnight).So TDKR is about 16.4% less frontloaded than Potter 8, while Pirates 2 is about 15.4% less frontloaded than TDKR. Potter 8 ended up making another $155m while Pirates 2 ended up making another $227m. TDKR theoretically should end up in between them around $192m. That would put it at roughly $417m. Now what we cannot know at this point is how much of TDKR's audience that skipped it on opening weekend because of the shooting (roughly $20m) will show up later on. If they do, then it's looking at a total north of $430m.

Also,DMC got 3.88x from its 3rd weekend, while DH2 got 3.85x. So by the 3rd weekend, we will know where TDKR is roughly headed.