pmoore Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 The Colorado shooting does not explain the pretty bad hold it will have this weekend. As I explained in a previous post. You can't just use that as a safe card every time the movie performs below expectations.Yes you can, and people will continue to. And it's valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted July 28, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted July 28, 2012 Whether or not Breaking Dawn - Part II and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will join Avengers and Dark Knight Rises in the $400M domestic club. It was rhetorical. (Since we're on the subject: BD2 "no" and TH "yes", IMO.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 It was rhetorical. (Since we're on the subject: BD2 "no" and TH "yes", IMO.)I would love to go ahead and start debating next summer's box office if I'm being honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Prince Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 yes it can, many of the casual and family audiences are still wary about going to the theater. Also, we now have the Olympics Yet Brave is only projected to decline by 32%, Ted by 32%, Ice Age by 36% and so on. Obviously, the Olympics aren't expected to effect them, nor did the shooting keep away families and the casual movie goers from those movies this weekend. And the effect of the shooting would be almost even from last weekend to this weekend. So why is it that if you remove half of the midnight sales making the first weekend gross 145m, the second weekend is still expected to decline by almost 60%? The shooting nor the Olympics can explain that. Yes you can, and people will continue to. And it's valid. It's valid to a degree. But when you take that into account as I did above, it no longer remains valid. Whether or not Breaking Dawn - Part II and The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey will join Avengers and Dark Knight Rises in the $400M domestic club. Don't forget THG 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted July 28, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted July 28, 2012 (edited) The flaw in comparing the drops in that manner is that TDKR, by nature as an opener, can't be expected to recover its audience as quickly as a holdover (which were still hit massively hard last weekend). It also presumes that its no longer affected by the shooting which isn't a fair assumption when considering its the film getting all of the indirectly negative press.That guy didn't walk into a showing of Brave or Ted and do what he did. Whether its logical or not, you have to remember that a lot of average Joes and Janes now associate TDKR with an atrocious event that it really has no other connections to. That sits with the public's subconscious -- whether justifiably so or not. Edited July 28, 2012 by ShawnMR 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 28, 2012 Author Share Posted July 28, 2012 BD2 is 100% guaranteed to not hit 400. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BK007 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 In hindsight we can agree on all of the following:1. Most of this board, clearly overpredicted this movie's potential and must see factor. 200m was never in the cards. 2. The shooting clearly affected the run. We'll never know how much, but most can agree what turned out to be a 160m OW would have probably been a 175-180ish million haul. To say it wasn't affected is silly and fueled by Nolanite hatred and to say it was the sole purpose for its shortcomings is sily and Nolanite love. 3 WOM is not on TDK or TA levels, but it's still mostly positive. Ppl saying it's mostly negative or letting their personal shit get in the way and likewise for those saying its getting better WOM then the aforementioned films. 4. The movie will be saved by OS take which will ultimately allow this to still be a strong success story, despite the tragic events. 5. Endless, pointless, stupid arguments will continue on these boards for decades about what could have been with no side winning. End discussion damn it!This deserves a bump. Best fucking post in a long time. Exactly right on all points. No other discussion of "what ifs" or hypotheticals are necessary but of course will keep being brought up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted July 28, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted July 28, 2012 BD2 is going to be interesting. Not sure it gets the finale bump that Potter did, but I could see it squeaking by $300m to top Eclipse if the fans rally behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Prince Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 The flaw in comparing the drops in that manner is that TDKR, by nature as an opener, can't be expected to recover its audience as quickly as a holdover (which were still hit massively hard last weekend). It also presumes that its no longer affected by the shooting which isn't a fair assumption when considering its the film getting all of the indirectly negative press.That guy didn't walk into a showing of Brave or Ted and do what he did. Whether its logical or not, you have to remember that a lot of average Joes and Janes now associate TDKR with an atrocious event that it really has no other connections to. That sits with the culture's subconscious -- whether justifiably so or not.But do you agree that it was hit just as hard if not harder last weekend right after this happened in comparison to this weekend? It's not as if this happened after last weekend. So it's a fair comparison to look at last weekend in comparison to this weekend after removing 50% of it's midnight sales. In fact, I believe it's more than fair since I'm sure the shooting hasn't effected 50% of people (as most are quoting a number around 20-25%).Similarly, the shooting would have effected the audience of movies like Brave and Ted to the same degree last weekend and this weekend. That means the holds this week are an indicator of the second factor being mentioned, which is the Olympics. As the movies are holding exceptionally well, it can be deduced that the Olympics did not have a significant effect.So if you remove the Olympic effect, and take away the shooting effect (be removing 50% of the midnight sales) that still leaves you with a 59% drop this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted July 28, 2012 Author Share Posted July 28, 2012 The flaw in comparing the drops in that manner is that TDKR, by nature as an opener, can't be expected to recover its audience as quickly as a holdover (which were still hit massively hard last weekend). It also presumes that its no longer affected by the shooting which isn't a fair assumption when considering its the film getting all of the indirectly negative press.That guy didn't walk into a showing of Brave or Ted and do what he did. Whether its logical or not, you have to remember that a lot of average Joes and Janes now associate TDKR with an atrocious event that it really has no other connections to. That sits with the public's subconscious -- whether justifiably so or not.Respectfully disagree with you. Movies are supposed to be hit hard, not just one of them. If everything else has recovered this weekend from last, then it should be safe to say that TDKR would follow the same trajectory. It's just not as liked as some of you, including you Shawn, think it is. Even people that like it will go on to tell you that they had reservations about it. That really didn't happen with TDK. This one has people, even the loonies, saying things like, "Oh my GOD!!!...best movie ever, so epic, so awesome....there were a few times I was bored, and Bane was a little hard to understand and some of the plot was full of holes, but oh MY GOD...OH MY GOD!!!LOVED IT SO MUCH. Tell me I'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmnerdjamie Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 I don't see any $400M grossers next year. Couple of $300Ms most definitely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted July 28, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted July 28, 2012 But do you agree that it was hit just as hard if not harder last weekend right after this happened in comparison to this weekend? It's not as if this happened after last weekend. So it's a fair comparison to look at last weekend in comparison to this weekend after removing 50% of it's midnight sales. In fact, I believe it's more than fair since I'm sure the shooting hasn't effected 50% of people (as most are quoting a number around 20-25%).Similarly, the shooting would have effected the audience of movies like Brave and Ted to the same degree last weekend and this weekend.That means the holds this week are an indicator of the second factor being mentioned, which is the Olympics. As the movies are holding exceptionally well, it can be deduced that the Olympics did not have a significant effect.So if you remove the Olympic effect, and take away the shooting effect (be removing 50% of the midnight sales) that still leaves you with a 59% drop this weekend.If you subscribe to that theory, it would. I don't think its remotely accurate though, with all due respect.Although I do agree that the Olympics don't have as large of an effect as the shooting -- if any. The effect of the shooting on TDKR versus everything else is akin to comparing apples and oranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Prince Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 The effect of the shooting on TDKR versus everything else is akin to comparing apples and oranges.But in the end, you're still comparing fruit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TLK Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 All movies had poor Friday jumps so I don't see why everyone is singling out TDKR, which had one the best Friday jumps in the top 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCS Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 In hindsight we can agree on all of the following:1. Most of this board, clearly overpredicted this movie's potential and must see factor. 200m was never in the cards.2. The shooting clearly affected the run. We'll never know how much, but most can agree what turned out to be a 160m OW would have probably been a 175-180ish million haul. To say it wasn't affected is silly and fueled by Nolanite hatred and to say it was the sole purpose for its shortcomings is sily and Nolanite love.3 WOM is not on TDK or TA levels, but it's still mostly positive. Ppl saying it's mostly negative or letting their personal shit get in the way and likewise for those saying its getting better WOM then the aforementioned films.4. The movie will be saved by OS take which will ultimately allow this to still be a strong success story, despite the tragic events.5. Endless, pointless, stupid arguments will continue on these boards for decades about what could have been with no side winning.End discussion damn it!Thanks for the summary, all true!OS will save it for sure, as the shooting has not affected TDKR here in the UK or anywhere else in the world really at all. But then again OS is now always expected to bring in a higher % of gross as the OS markets grow and the US market shrinks. But since the shooting the % of gross from OS is going to be much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claire of Themyscira Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 (edited) Respectfully disagree with you. Movies are supposed to be hit hard, not just one of them. If everything else has recovered this weekend from last, then it should be safe to say that TDKR would follow the same trajectory. It's just not as liked as some of you, including you Shawn, think it is. Even people that like it will go on to tell you that they had reservations about it. That really didn't happen with TDK. This one has people, even the loonies, saying things like, "Oh my GOD!!!...best movie ever, so epic, so awesome....there were a few times I was bored, and Bane was a little hard to understand and some of the plot was full of holes, but oh MY GOD...OH MY GOD!!!LOVED IT SO MUCH. Tell me I'm wrong. You're wrong. Edited July 28, 2012 by SantanaLopez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted July 28, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted July 28, 2012 (edited) Respectfully disagree with you. Movies are supposed to be hit hard, not just one of them. If everything else has recovered this weekend from last, then it should be safe to say that TDKR would follow the same trajectory. It's just not as liked as some of you, including you Shawn, think it is. Even people that like it will go on to tell you that they had reservations about it. That really didn't happen with TDK. This one has people, even the loonies, saying things like, "Oh my GOD!!!...best movie ever, so epic, so awesome....there were a few times I was bored, and Bane was a little hard to understand and some of the plot was full of holes, but oh MY GOD...OH MY GOD!!!LOVED IT SO MUCH. Tell me I'm wrong.So do you expect a hugely anticipated movie to not have a few minor complaints about it on the Internet?I don't know, B. No one is saying WOM is necssarily on par with TDK, but you almost make it sound like its on the level of something like Spider-Man 3.Good word of mouth is good word of mouth, and this film has it. It doesn't have to be "OMG THE BESTEST EVERZ!!!" to be qualified as such. Every movie has its detractors -- that includes Batman Begins and TDK themselves. Edited July 28, 2012 by ShawnMR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Prince Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 All movies had poor Friday jumps so I don't see why everyone is singling out TDKR, which had one the best Friday jumps in the top 10.Everything should be put in perspective though. Most of the other movies had fantastic holds over the weekdays.OS will save it for sure, as the shooting has not affected TDKR here in the UK or anywhere else in the world really at all. But then again OS is now always expected to bring in a higher % of gross as the OS markets grow and the US market shrinks. But since the shooting the % of gross from OS is going to be much higher.TDKR will do a lot better OS than TDK. And in the end, it should have a similar WW gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bballman24 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 The OS numbers are really encouraging for me as a batman fan. It means the rest of the world has finally embraced Batman in the same league as Spiderman, if not more.I mean, as some people have posted this recently, the increase from BB to TDK then to TDKR is something none of us would have predicted before BB opened. From 167m to 468m then 650~700m+ (if china opens), that is simply mind blowing for me. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hatebox Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 TDKR will do a lot better OS than TDK. And in the end, it should have a similar WW gross.Which is a 'win' in light of what a draw the Joker usually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
