ACCA Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 The only issue I have with that extrapolation is that TDKR did about 25% less during its midnight shows than expected. It's Friday proper was not really that unreasonable compared to its midnights. If there was some huge discrepancy between how it did over its first few days and what TDK did, then I would wholly agree with you. But its drops and increases since its OD are not that far off from TDK. Sure, it dropped slightly harder on Sunday, then dropped quite a bit harder on Monday, but its screen count was ridiculous. It had very few sellouts so Monday's drop was always going to be more normal due to the lack of sellout spillover. Its performance since Monday has improved gradually over DH2. I think the impact was maybe in the 10-15% range. I could see it at around 180m OW, 250m+ now on its way to 480+, maybe even 500. But 540-560? I highly doubt it was ever gonna reach that high.Either way, we'll never know for sure.Regarding TDKR drops, I think each day of the whole run so far has been impacted by the tragedy, which is why the drops are normal for the most part, but we don't this for sure either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Marston Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Either way, we'll never know for sure.Regarding TDKR drops, I think each day of the whole run so far has been impacted by the tragedy, which is why the drops are normal for the most part, but we don't this for sure either.makes sense. The story was all over the media the whole week. Even news about copycats were starting to rumble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackO Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 makes sense. The story was all over the media the whole week. Even news about copycats were starting to rumbleYup, heard a story of a copycat just today calling himself the Joker up in Maryland. He was gonna shoot up his former workplace. Media is frothing at the mouth over this story. Sad that the film had to get caught in the fray. http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/maryland-cops-thwart-aurora-theater-shooting-copycat-discover-gun-stash-included-20-weapons-400-rounds-ammo-article-1.1123265 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 The only issue I have with that extrapolation is that TDKR did about 25% less during its midnight shows than expected.Pretty sure the average prediction here last Thursday was around 30m. Early midnight predictions may have hovered around 40m but Potter was on another level in terms of audiences needing to see the movie as soon as possible. And there's 3D, obviously. TDKR couldn't replicate that, but it didn't need to. It still doesn't. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted July 28, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted July 28, 2012 Either way, we'll never know for sure.Regarding TDKR drops, I think each day of the whole run so far has been impacted by the tragedy, which is why the drops are normal for the most part, but we don't this for sure either.When indications are that nearly one-quarter of the entire movie-going audience are still questioning their desire to even go to the theater one week after the shooting, I fully agree here.We know with relative certainty that the entire market was affected last weekend, and it would be a pretty safe bet to say that TDKR was more affected than anything else. But no one will ever know to what extent exactly. All we can judge it on going forward is how it stands on its own despite its unfortunate circumstances -- and over time, I think that legacy will be nothing less than well-remembered when kept in proper perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Pretty sure the average prediction here last Thursday was around 30m. Early midnight predictions may have hovered around 40m but Potter was on another level in terms of audiences needing to see the movie as soon as possible. And there's 3D, obviously. TDKR couldn't replicate that, but it didn't need to. It still doesn't.Pretty much everyone here said it would be a big disappointment if it didn't hit $30m midnight, and it just barely eked by that. Most had $35-40m range heading into last Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 When indications are that nearly one-quarter of the entire movie-going audience are still questioning their desire to even go to the theater one week after the shooting, I fully agree here.We know with relative certainty that the entire market was affected last weekend, and it would be a pretty safe bet to say that TDKR was more affected than anything else. But no one will ever know to what extent exactly. All we can judge it on going forward is how it stands on its own despite its unfortunate circumstances -- and over time, I think that legacy will be nothing less than well-remembered when kept in proper perspective.Nope, the tragedy will always overshadow anything else about the film. Kinda like Ledger with TDK. Critics would spend their entire reviews gushing about Heath. Meanwhile the rest of us are saying, "Now hang on here a second. Oldman and Eckhart were also great, and the ending is awesome even though Heath isn't in it." He and his death completely overshadowed the rest of the film, just like these shootings are going to be the black cloud hanging over TDKR forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACCA Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 When indications are that nearly one-quarter of the entire movie-going audience are still questioning their desire to even go to the theater one week after the shooting, I fully agree here.We know with relative certainty that the entire market was affected last weekend, and it would be a pretty safe bet to say that TDKR was more affected than anything else. But no one will ever know to what extent exactly. All we can judge it on going forward is how it stands on its own despite its unfortunate circumstances -- and over time, I think that legacy will be nothing less than well-remembered when kept in proper perspective. Well said. Some films seem to be recovering a bit, but also as you say, and I agree here that TDKR has been affected more than anything else. The media is just dying to run the next story about some potential theater scare related to TDKR, it's all they've done for the past week. There's even been some stories in the media of people who have developed phobias now from the tragedy, and phobias not just of theaters, but phobias specifically of watching The Dark Knight Rises. It is a shame, but TDKR is being affected more than any other film due to the tragedy. Yet, the WOM among people who have seen it is great, and the movie continues to fight along, to "rise" against the odds here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 RTH usually posts an estimate at 3am Est....Bring on the 20M! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Do you guys think there will be another movie theater shooting this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 When indications are that nearly one-quarter of the entire movie-going audience are still questioning their desire to even go to the theater one week after the shooting, I fully agree here.We know with relative certainty that the entire market was affected last weekend, and it would be a pretty safe bet to say that TDKR was more affected than anything else. But no one will ever know to what extent exactly. All we can judge it on going forward is how it stands on its own despite its unfortunate circumstances -- and over time, I think that legacy will be nothing less than well-remembered when kept in proper perspective. When indications are that nearly one-quarter of the entire movie-going audience are still questioning their desire to even go to the theater one week after the shooting, I fully agree here.We know with relative certainty that the entire market was affected last weekend, and it would be a pretty safe bet to say that TDKR was more affected than anything else. But no one will ever know to what extent exactly. All we can judge it on going forward is how it stands on its own despite its unfortunate circumstances -- and over time, I think that legacy will be nothing less than well-remembered when kept in proper perspective.This is the biggest "what if" of our BO life time. There's no way to quantify how many admissions TDKR lost on OW and how many it continues to lose? We just don't know, how many people are afraid to go see TDKR? I think 500M would have happened without the shooting but we'll never know, which is just sad. A shooting changed the history of a movie. From now till end of time, shooting will always be connected to TDKR. :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#ED Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 All this talk about the film being overshadowed, it happens to a lot of movies.The Avengers wil forever be known as the movie that grossed over $200M that weekend. I already forgot the plot to the movie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Do you guys think there will be another movie theater shooting this weekend?Please don't even ask that question. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gopher Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 35m-40m would be DH2's midnight admissions. And yeah, both are 'finales' but one with the huge book fanbase had more immediate, pent-up demand. DH2 was selling out everything in late June if I recall correctly. At that point TDKR was only selling out IMAX shows. The midnight number shouldn't be a victim of our expectations because it's a damn great number. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted July 28, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted July 28, 2012 Nope, the tragedy will always overshadow anything else about the film. Kinda like Ledger with TDK. Critics would spend their entire reviews gushing about Heath. Meanwhile the rest of us are saying, "Now hang on here a second. Oldman and Eckhart were also great, and the ending is awesome even though Heath isn't in it." He and his death completely overshadowed the rest of the film, just like these shootings are going to be the black cloud hanging over TDKR forever.I'm not sure what you're saying "nope" to as you seem to be referring to something completely different. I'm talking about the film's box office run alone. As far as the film itself goes, only history will determine that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 35m-40m would be DH2's midnight admissions. And yeah, both are 'finales' but one with the huge book fanbase had more immediate, pent-up demand. DH2 was selling out everything in late June if I recall correctly. At that point TDKR was only selling out IMAX shows. The midnight number shouldn't be a victim of our expectations because it's a damn great number. It is a great number, however it already showed that TDKR wasn't going to live up to the very high expectations 80% of this board had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 I'm not sure what you're saying "nope" to as you seem to be referring to something completely different. I'm talking about the film's box office run alone. As far as the film itself goes, only history will determine that.When you referred to legacy, I assumed you meant the film itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Please don't even ask that question. I'm honestly worried. Who knows how many nutjobs there are out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Do you guys think there will be another movie theater shooting this weekend?I hope not. That would be absolutely disastrous for movie going. People are already on edge and with another shooting, I rather not even think about it. TSA level security in movie theaters, I would just stop going to movies and wait for DVD/B/R for my 60 inch TV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JackO Posted July 28, 2012 Share Posted July 28, 2012 Do you guys think there will be another movie theater shooting this weekend?There had better not be since I plan to go out and see some movies tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
