2015 Discussion Thread: Universal wins the calendar year | SW: TFA - biggest film domestic, 3rd biggest film worldwide

[Shawn Robbins]

thanks for the welcomes! i've been reading the forums for a while and decided to join in i think mockingjay part 2 is being drastically underpredicted by almost everyone though. catching fire wasn't a great book either but they made a better movie out of it than the hunger games, critically and box office-wise. catching fire also made about the same as transformers 2 overseas (~450) so who's to say that if the mj1 trailer is blockbuster-y enough it won't follow transforms 3 overseas with >700? it's unlikely it goes that high without 3d, especially for a part 1, but for part 2 the sky's the limit, it could match iron man 3 worldwide. it all depends on how much mockingjay part 1 breaks boundaries this year, with very little competition might i add. i just know catching fire was way underestimated too so i'm being optimistic

 

all that being said i concede that it seems impossible for mockingjay part 2 to go higher than third place domestic or worldwide in 2015 but if like i predict it goes >500 domestic it could beat star wars 7 dom if that "disappoints" with only 475 or something

 

Welcome to the forums, water!

[boomboom234]

avengers will drop but star wars is a wild card dpending on its qulity and there is no way that mockinjay makes 500 million domestic the novel itself is a mess and it is very depressing

my guess

 

Sw>AOU>>>MJ2>>bond

[Neo]

Domestically, Mockingjay 2 has #3 in the bag. Overseas, I can see either Bond 24 or Fast and Furious 7 taking it. Worldwide is probably between MJ2 and Bond 24.

Will make bet that #1 WW will not be MJ2 or Bond 24.

[Neo]

thanks for the welcomes! i've been reading the forums for a while and decided to join in i think mockingjay part 2 is being drastically underpredicted by almost everyone though. catching fire wasn't a great book either but they made a better movie out of it than the hunger games, critically and box office-wise. catching fire also made about the same as transformers 2 overseas (~450) so who's to say that if the mj1 trailer is blockbuster-y enough it won't follow transforms 3 overseas with >700? it's unlikely it goes that high without 3d, especially for a part 1, but for part 2 the sky's the limit, it could match iron man 3 worldwide. it all depends on how much mockingjay part 1 breaks boundaries this year, with very little competition might i add. i just know catching fire was way underestimated too so i'm being optimistic

 

all that being said i concede that it seems impossible for mockingjay part 2 to go higher than third place domestic or worldwide in 2015 but if like i predict it goes >500 domestic it could beat star wars 7 dom if that "disappoints" with only 475 or something

Have there be any MJII predicts (serious)? I think everyone is waiting post MJI.

[water]

i'm waiting for the mockingjay part 1 trailer but if it has a good money shot then

 

part 1 - 81% RT

170 ow / 415 dom / 650 os / 1065 ww

part 2 - 93% RT

200 ow / 525 dom / 800 os / 1325 ww

 

star wars 7 - 65% RT (i see them f***ing this up like the hobbit 1 and man of steel)

130 ow / 500 dom / 600 os / 1100 ww

 

avengers 2 - 80% RT

220 ow / 575 dom / 1b os / 1575 ww

[Gokai Red]

Will make bet that #1 WW will not be MJ2 or Bond 24.

Lol, I was saying MJ2 or Bond would take the number 3 spot. I have Avengers winning all three again.

[DMan7]

Avengers 2 has been locked to win DOM, OS and WW since 2012 /end thread

[Shaldun]

DOM, the two movies from Disney will be in first positions but which first ? and which second ? I don't know for now. Avengers 2 is the safest choice but if SW7 is great, it can go really high. We speak of the sequel trilogy to the OT, after everyone thought SW over and without Lucas for the first time. The MCU is fine but this is not a saga with the status that has Star Wars. Also, the December opening is just perfect for a movie like SW if it's not a bad movie (and I don't think it will be a bad movie, even if it doesn't go to the level of the best SW, it can still be pretty good). Avengers 2 is also likely to drop as often with the sequels to huge success but this has quite some hype so not sure. Plus, Catching Fire hasn't dropped finally. I think both of them will be pretty close. 

After the two juggernauts (likely to be both above 500M$), we have MJ2 as third (around 430M$). After, it's a lot more difficult to see : Minions, Bond 24 will be big but enough to be 4th and 5th ? Not sure, Inside Out, The Good Dinosaur, ... can go high too. These places will be around 350M$ surely.

 

OS, that's the same problem. Avengers 2 will be huge and will certainly increase, maybe passing the billion OS. Star Wars seems smaller on this but in fact, the last movie has been released in 2005. Since then, OS markets have really changed and we can't really predict how SW will be received in the new movie market.

For the rest, Bond should pass or be close to the billion, same for MJ2 and Minions. 

 

What I see WW (for now and considering not a big breakout of SW OS) : 

Avengers 2 - 1.8-2B$

Star Wars 7 - 1.5B$ 

Bond 24 -  1-1.1B$ 

Mockingjay 2 - 950-1.05B$

Minions - 850-900M$ 

[Neo]

What I see WW (for now and considering not a big breakout of SW OS) : 

Avengers 2 - 1.8-2B$

Star Wars 7 - 1.5B$ 

Bond 24 -  1-1.1B$ 

Mockingjay 2 - 950-1.05B$

Minions - 850-900M$ 

Fast 7? Mi5? A few other potential breakouts. Top 2 are all but locked, bottom 3 are up for grabs.

[Shaldun]

Fast 7? Mi5? A few other potential breakouts. Top 2 are all but locked, bottom 3 are up for grabs.

They're unsure for DOM but I think the top 5 WW has really a lot of chances to look like that. 

 

Fast 7 can maybe enter it with passing 800M$ and if Minions suffers a lot of the spin-off effect. 

MI5 will do less (or roughly the same) than the previous one IMO and Ghost Protocol is below 700M$. The release date so close of SW doesn't help it for a subtancial increase IMO and it would need it for a top 5 position.

Breakouts ? We can't predict them, that's the thing . But will have to be a really big breakout to enter the Top 5 WW

[Neo]

They're unsure for DOM but I think the top 5 WW has really a lot of chances to look like that. 

 

Fast 7 can maybe enter it with passing 800M$ and if Minions suffers a lot of the spin-off effect. 

MI5 will do less (or roughly the same) than the previous one IMO and Ghost Protocol is below 700M$. The release date so close of SW doesn't help it for a subtancial increase IMO and it would need it for a top 5 position.

Breakouts ? We can't predict them, that's the thing . But will have to be a really big breakout to enter the Top 5 WW

SH did fine against Avatar and VII is no Avatar.You can predict breakouts.

[Neo]

{TB EXCLUSIVE} KEY & PEELE SET TO TACKLE “POLICE ACADEMY” REBOOT FOR NEW LINE

[Donald]

Avengers def has this locked

[K1stpierre]

Avengers should definitely lock all 3. Only one that could stop it would be SW7, and that's only if TA2 perhaps falls a bit due to it being a sequel to an already highly successful first movie.

[darkelf]

{TB EXCLUSIVE} KEY & PEELE SET TO TACKLE “POLICE ACADEMY” REBOOT FOR NEW LINE

 

Love Key & Peele but REALLY?

 

Didn't that franchise suck out everything it could and then made 4 more movies?

[peludo]

I do not like to use the lock word, but OS and WW are very close to be 100% sure in favor of Avengers. However, I think that DOM battle has to be played. IMHO, although Avengers is favorite, Star Wars has chances to win. Let's remember that last SW movie, Revenge of the Sith, adjusts to 495 million without 3D.

[Deep Wang]

Love Key & Peele but REALLY?

 

Didn't that franchise suck out everything it could and then made 4 more movies 6 more movies?

[Neo]

Super Troopers 2 a Go

[Mango]

I really hope Tomorrowland breaks out and makes into the top 5 domestic or something. With pretty much every top tier franchise right now having a movie that year that would probably require a $300 million minimum gross. In a year filled with even more sequels, adaptations, and reboots it would be great to see an original film stand its ground.

[baumer]

Locked?  Nope.  Not even close.  

 

Does Avengers have a really good shot at being number 1?  Hell yea.  But it is far from locked.  The novelty of seeing them all together is over.  That doesn't mean it will drop massively, but imo, it will drop.  And that opens the door for SW to beat it, at least domestically.  Internationally and WW, I think it is close to locked.