MattW Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 If it stays in theaters past the 30 day period i could possibly see it reaching 2900, but aside from that I'm getting 2700-2800 as well when i work it out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agafin Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 25 minutes ago, MattW said: If it stays in theaters past the 30 day period i could possibly see it reaching 2900, but aside from that I'm getting 2700-2800 as well when i work it out. Have you seen the May release schedule? There's a big release pretty much every week. Given the front loaded nature of the market, I doubt it'd still have enough screens after one month for an extension to matter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 2 hours ago, druv10 said: Yeah, even with great score on Maoyan holds have been pretty mediocre. I guess movies have an upper limit in China as well. It has burned off too much demand over the first 4 days to maintain normal drops, I was hoping for 3B. At this point, I don't see that happening, more like 2.7-2.8B. Yeah. Around 2.7B is where its headed i guess. Still a great number though Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 WED Estimates before service chargesFate of the Furious - 89.3m / 1,616mA Chinese Odyssey Part Two - 7.5m / 124.4mKong: Skull Island - 0.74m / 1.094bGhost in the Shell - 0.67m / 186.9m after service chargesFate of the Furious - 93.5m / 1,732mA Chinese Odyssey Part Two - 8m / 134.4mKong: Skull Island - 0.78m / 1.157bGhost in the Shell - 0.7m / 198.6m 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrstickball Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Makes me really wonder where Friday-Sunday is going to be... 60% drop or bigger expected?Sent from my SM-N910T3 using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 8 minutes ago, Mrstickball said: Makes me really wonder where Friday-Sunday is going to be... 60% drop or bigger expected? Sent from my SM-N910T3 using Tapatalk My best guess is 70-75% drop 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 4 minutes ago, fmpro said: My best guess is 70-75% drop Really a shame as a super import film with so good WOM... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 10 minutes ago, Mrstickball said: Makes me really wonder where Friday-Sunday is going to be... 60% drop or bigger expected? Sent from my SM-N910T3 using Tapatalk If it follows F7 holds, it's looking at a 72%+ drop. So far, it's holding worse, maybe it gets healthy jump on Friday and avoids 70% drop but regardless it's in for a high 60s drop for sure to low to mid 70s. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 If it's 75m on Thursday then FSS might be 108/173/129 -69% from real FSS OW 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agafin Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Based on POTUS's chart from the previous page, with exactly the same holds as FF7 from here on, it would earn a ¥377m weekend (-72%). So far, its been consistently holding worse than that movie. The one hope it has to end with a sub 70% drop (65%+ is all but guaranteed) is the Friday bump. FF7 had a muted 24% bump and I suppose it's because business spilled over the whole first set of weekdays. Otherwise, FF8 might tumble 70-75%. This is why I said in the "When will China pass DOM thread" that additional screens, abandoning protection periods or import quotas won't have any effect in CBO growth. You'd simply have movies becoming "one week wonders" like POTUS said. If a movie with good WOM and little competition like FF8 can plunge by 70% then what about movies with average/bad WOM and competition? We've seen with GitS from this past weekend that a 95% to 99% drop isn't out of the question. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaze Heatnix Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 Wow, a 70% drop would be insanely brutal for F8... Is that a new BVS? Damn. I hope the movie recovers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnack Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 33 minutes ago, Agafin said: This is why I said in the "When will China pass DOM thread" that additional screens, abandoning protection periods or import quotas won't have any effect in CBO growth. Any is maybe a bit much, but you are right, I don't remember much movies not getting a China release because of the quota last year, nor any movie that was still playing strong removed from theater because it expired is time (and not because local movie competition took all the place, that would still happen I imagine) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cookson Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 How does China fix these huge drops? It's not just F8, but there's always plenty of films that drop huge its second week. "One week wonder" is exactly right... But I don't know how you eliviate it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 20 minutes ago, Cookson said: How does China fix these huge drops? It's not just F8, but there's always plenty of films that drop huge its second week. "One week wonder" is exactly right... But I don't know how you eliviate it. The drops happen because of the amount of seats available on OW. In Dom AoU and JW may have 14k of 40k screens and sell 20m tickets OW out of their 45m to 60m total. FF8 had 30k screens of 44k. 38m tickets sold OW in a market with admissions just slightly over dom annually. Their model is to oversaturate to an anticipatory audience. Japan seldom gives more than 15% of screens to an opener. They like to wait and see what others think first. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said: Really a shame as a super import film with so good WOM... It is. But fact is that its dropping like a Rock 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seduh Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 It's dropping very hard. I expect a 350 2nd weekend (yuan) and a total under 2x it's OW. China is a frontloaded country, and if F8 opens that big it's not a surprise. Remember R6 (it open over $90 but made $160 in total) 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 5 hours ago, Blaze Heatnix said: Wow, a 70% drop would be insanely brutal for F8... Is that a new BVS? Damn. I hope the movie recovers. Yeahhh. Don't hold your breath on that one... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrstickball Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 One caveat is screens... how many screens will F8 have this weekend? Seems like it should still bully competition out in terms of TC.Sent from my SM-N910T3 using Tapatalk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted April 19, 2017 Share Posted April 19, 2017 5 minutes ago, Mrstickball said: One caveat is screens... how many screens will F8 have this weekend? Seems like it should still bully competition out in terms of TC. Sent from my SM-N910T3 using Tapatalk Around 100k for F8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted April 20, 2017 Share Posted April 20, 2017 17 hours ago, POTUS said: If it's 75m on Thursday then FSS might be 108/173/129 -69% from real FSS OW My best guess today is 70-75. Its down around 22% atm compared to yesterday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...