China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Gavin Feng]

I would say ¥120~130M OD.

 

Public have some mixed emotions about current situation. Most people are agree with looser policy but still feel trouble about being tested positive. People in Shanghai, Beijing may overcome the fear more quick, but Shenzhen will have its COVID cases peak probably in JAN & FEB. Different situations for different areas. Government and experts are generally stressing things will be back to normal soon, and people believe it. But nobody could tell how soon. For film market and Avatar 2, I expect the next 2 weeks will be mundane. 

[GipJo]

32 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Another dip - ¥153M / ¥146M 

And another dip - ¥148M / ¥140M

[Danhjpn]

People on Reddit will look at the box office number and say Avatar 2 has bad reception in China haha

Edited December 16, 2022 by Danhjpn

[Issac Newton]

At 21:30 CST

 

FRI Tracking ¥128M/¥125M on Maoyan/Taopiaopiao respectively 

 

Current Projections - ¥133M/¥127M on Maoyan/Taopiaopiao respectively 

 

From ¥220M OD projection to almost ¥130M OD realisation (damn down by ¥90M)

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Maybe we were wrong about Avatar in China. I know conditions aren’t the best right now for a release but even with good WOM and good-but-inflated-WTS, this is crashing on interest after the initial PS surge.

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Maybe we were wrong about Avatar in China. I know conditions aren’t the best right now for a release but even with good WOM and good-but-inflated-WTS, this is crashing on interest after the initial PS surge.

May be China was lot better with Zero CoVid Policy because today's number doesn't makes any difference if cinemas are close or not.

 

Neither I think Cinema re-opening scenario was exactly comparable to DC3 Opening 

[stephanos13]

1 minute ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Maybe we were wrong about Avatar in China. I know conditions aren’t the best right now for a release but even with good WOM and good-but-inflated-WTS, this is crashing on interest after the initial PS surge.

 

Based on the high scores on Douban (8.4) and Maoyan (9.3) this should be booming not the opposite.

 

I can only explain it on the current Covid situation in China, I can't explain it on something else like lack of interest for example.

[Danhjpn]

9 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Maybe we were wrong about Avatar in China. I know conditions aren’t the best right now for a release but even with good WOM and good-but-inflated-WTS, this is crashing on interest after the initial PS surge.

Explain the combo 8.4/9.2/9.3 on Douban/Tiapaoao/Maoyan

[Nero]

9 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Maybe we were wrong about Avatar in China. I know conditions aren’t the best right now for a release but even with good WOM and good-but-inflated-WTS, this is crashing on interest after the initial PS surge.

I mean there's a similar situation in Japan as well as US. Good initials sales but not so good walk ups. Seems like a sign.

[Issac Newton]

Just now, Danhjpn said:

Explain the combo 8.4/9.2/9.3 on Douban/Tiapaoao/Maoyan

Unless you can't move people to watch the film. These scores can't help the film. People must overcome their sense of fear of getting CoVid

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

6 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

Explain the combo 8.4/9.2/9.3 on Douban/Tiapaoao/Maoyan

I said it has good WOM but that doesn’t mean people will go see it. 

[Danhjpn]

Just now, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

I said it has good WOM but that doesn’t mean people will go see it. 

Oh I thought you said it had terrible wom that no one wanted to see it thats why it dropped 

[Gkalaitza]

38 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Maybe we were wrong about Avatar in China. I know conditions aren’t the best right now for a release but even with good WOM and good-but-inflated-WTS, this is crashing on interest after the initial PS surge.

You need to remember the first week of presales came just as Zero Covid and harsh Government measures were getting rolled back and optimism was at an all time high even in China. Maybe it should have been expected that Covid would surge considerably and that people would be getting face to face with an equaly grim reality compared to Zero-Covid and lockdowns (or even more so) but its natural that people werent ready or prepared. Also its the fact that people expected the transition from zero covid to "we will live with it"  to be more gradual and with more "safety " provided from the goverment but it isnt so and the world kinda went upside down for them within a week or so. I feel like pre-sales coming to a halt more than anywhere else and walks up being more garbage than basicaly anywhere else specificaly coincide with the realization (and later first hand experience) from the people that Covid is about to rip through and that the government wont be as heavy handed as needed  in "easing" the transition and in not letting the virus overwhelm them. I think the fear and uncertainty in China has increased quite a lot compared to idk 10 days ago and that was reflected exactly in how the pre-sales jumped of a cliff and this OW

[cdsacken]

As I expected massive drop in china numbers. I knew that would happen. You can’t take away 2 years of fear in 2 weeks. That and frankly reception for #2 is below #1, novelty is gone and it’s a different market 13 years later. It’s a different market from 2019!

[JustLurking]

45 minutes ago, Nero said:

I mean there's a similar situation in Japan as well as US. Good initials sales but not so good walk ups. Seems like a sign.

Japan isn't the same whatsoever, I pointed out right from the beginning that PS was absurdly anemic outside of premiums. Japan has very little IMAX screens so that was pretty much a death sentence by me.

[GipJo]

Maoyan updated their prediction. SAT 28 mil, SUN 20 mil, total first 3 days 57 mil. The total box office prediction now is 260 mil.

[Issac Newton]

22 hours ago, Issac Newton said:

Maoyan Forecast

 

OD / OW / Final

 

¥256M / ¥863M / ¥2511M

 

True OD - ¥220M

Current Forecast 

 

SAT - ¥195M (Pre-sales - ¥70M)

SUN - ¥136M (Pre-sales - ¥36M)

 

OW - ¥496M / Final - ¥1822M

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Final - ¥1822M

Would be $261M at current ER. Exact same USD total of Avatar in China.

[Cooper Legion]

1 hour ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Maybe we were wrong about Avatar in China. I know conditions aren’t the best right now for a release but even with good WOM and good-but-inflated-WTS, this is crashing on interest after the initial PS surge.

This is like trying to release IW in USA in mid March 2020. Maybe avatar potential in China was overestimated (certainly I’ve thought so for a while) but there’s just no way to tell with such contaminated circumstances. A3 will clear things up some but even then it will be coming off virus tainted and less  strongly performing A2 instead of being a long awaited successor to complete juggernaut A1.

[Gavin Feng]

one of the craziest thing is, I still don't see the movie. I was supposed to see it in WED previews. But my screening was cancelled due to tech problem. And now I become one of those who are not rushed into going cinema. I know I will see it in theaters at some point, but I'm not sure when. Good seats in IMAX theaters this weekend are not available now. And now I am kind of calm and wait. If general people have similar thinking, holds in next few weeks should be fine.