China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Poseidon]

8 hours ago, efialtes76 said:

Maoyan(final):193.03m +15.76m(previews)=208.79m

 

So the final number for saturday is $31,7m?

So many numbers in here, but no idea about the official one.

[kswiston]

1 hour ago, No Prisoners said:

Pre-sales up to 42m.  AOUs sun and T5s second day did 4x

168m sounds high and would be a huge hold

I would say at least 140-150m will happen. Still a good hold.

Will know better in a few hours

 

I think I will just wait until tomorrow this time. You guys were throwing out numbers approaching $40M last night based on pre-sales. Maybe this film just has stronger pre-sales than Hollywood films were getting back in May or August. 

Edited January 10, 2016 by kswiston

[POTUS 2020]

42 minutes ago, kswiston said:

 

I think I will just wait until tomorrow this time. You guys were throwing out numbers approaching $40M last night based on pre-sales. Maybe this film just has stronger pre-sales than Hollywood films were getting back in May or August. 

And yet you just looked in. 

Can't lay off the crack.

They were possibilities prefaced with "I'll know more midday" at midday I said under 200m. 

You can just wait til deadline tomorrow.

 nah you'll check back in 2 hours.

[terrestrial]

2 hours ago, Poseidon said:

So the final number for saturday is $31,7m?
So many numbers in here, but no idea about the official one.

 

I think you expect those too early.

Each counfty as other systems to report those,...

 

32 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

You can just wait til deadline tomorrow.

You gave explanations what will mean what early on, gave a date / time of date as a minimum condition for giving a bit more ... focused/probable (term ?) predictions (= not reached yet), give in between updates as available

= I much prefer your work (and Olive,...) than Deadline's guesswork.

IMHO DL is a site who works mostly on the basis of click-bait, tend to early on give numbers, but interpret the available numbers worse than other (speaking about USA details), often 'forget' to name the source (details out of exclusives for other sites), change their predictions often repeatedly per day... (and seldom write that in a style like: uups, we were wrong).

I use them too, but mostly for the ppl waiting for any hints, seldomst for myself

 

As you are aware I have a bit of a problem to be sure how I sound = meant as a compliment to you and the other not new to this part of the forum members = with insight and the experience I seek.

[kswiston]

1 hour ago, No Prisoners said:

And yet you just looked in. 

Can't lay off the crack.

They were possibilities prefaced with "I'll know more midday" at midday I said under 200m. 

You can just wait til deadline tomorrow.

 nah you'll check back in 2 hours.

 

Haha. I will definitely check back. I just won't try to draw any specific conclusions from early data until the morning. Olive was saying 300 or less for the weekend a few days back. It's looking like we'll get closer to 350 (maybe over that). That's good enough for me for now. I'll wait for tomorrow's estimate before discussing the presence or absence of good holds. 

 

Also, Deadline's reporting on China is barely worth reading. I still remember the discrepancies between western and local reporting for Age of Extinction. We were getting the wrong total for weeks.  Hollywood Reporter's article today seemed to use old estimates for TFA, forget to include the midnight gross for AoU in their quoted OD figure, and focus on Hollywood competition like that's all that matters in China. Hence why I visit these threads. 

Edited January 10, 2016 by kswiston

[tokila]

4 hours ago, Cynosure said:

 

Ah Deadline and their ability to find a record anywhere.

 

'Biggest opening for a 1h45 minute movie opening on a rainy day during the first half of January in a leap year.'

biggest saturday ever is a pretty big deal. Its not like they are grasping for straws. TFA does not have biggest saturday ever in US for instance (yes day 2 versus day 1, but still). 

[kswiston]

9 minutes ago, tokila said:

biggest saturday ever is a pretty big deal. Its not like they are grasping for straws. TFA does not have biggest saturday ever in US for instance (yes day 2 versus day 1, but still). 

 

It's not the biggest Saturday ever, just the biggest opening day Saturday. Age of Ultron's first Saturday was higher. I don't pay as much attention to the performance of local films, but I am pretty sure at least one of those had a higher Saturday as well. 

Edited January 10, 2016 by kswiston

[hw64]

7 minutes ago, kswiston said:

 

It's not the biggest Saturday ever, just the biggest opening day Saturday. Age of Ultron's first Saturday was higher. I don't pay as much attention to the performance of local films, but I am pretty sure at least one of those had a higher Saturday as well. 

 

Lost in Hong Kong, Transformers 4, Age of Ultron and F7 all have higher saturdays. TFA is 5th.

[kswiston]

2 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Lost in Hong Kong, Transformers 4, Age of Ultron and F7 all have higher saturdays. TFA is 5th.

 

All higher in RMB or just USD? I know Ultron was higher in local currency. Lost in Hong Kong was the local film I was thinking of, so I know that was higher as well. 

[Cynosure]

23 minutes ago, tokila said:

biggest saturday ever is a pretty big deal. Its not like they are grasping for straws. TFA does not have biggest saturday ever in US for instance (yes day 2 versus day 1, but still). 

 

It's 'biggest opening saturday ever'. And with the box office growing 50% year-on-year and opening days being kind of all over the place in China, it's really not that meaningful.

[hw64]

10 minutes ago, kswiston said:

 

All higher in RMB or just USD? I know Ultron was higher in local currency. Lost in Hong Kong was the local film I was thinking of, so I know that was higher as well. 

 

TF4 did 223m yuan, Furious 7 did 225m, Age of Ultron did 236m, and Lost in Hong Kong did 246m+. All of these were on the first Saturday of the respective film's run. Estimates are all over the place at the moment regarding TFA's opening but I think even TF4 is comfortably ahead of even the largest of them.

[bangbingchan]

8 hours ago, kswiston said:

 

Looks like Deadline is just using old estimates. 

looks like DL wrote this before.DL is misleading on purpose.TFA is the highest Saturday start,but has nothing to do with Saturday record.30~33M is 5th highest Saturday If I remember right.Considering it is OD including midnight,the number is so so.DL compare with JW OD and final gross.Don't forget JW open on Wed.With mixed WOM,TFA almost impossible to reach JW gross in the end.

[bangbingchan]

31 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

Lost in Hong Kong, Transformers 4, Age of Ultron and F7 all have higher saturdays. TFA is 5th.

Even FF7 2nd Weekend is ahead of TFA OD.So it's 6th highest Saturday.Mojin first Sat is also higher than TFA.If you notice,DL describe highest Saturday start,not highest Saturday

[terrestrial]

Hence the reason cynosure wrote:

Quote

'Ah Deadline and their ability to find a record anywhere.'

 

and one of the many reasons I deem them as click-bait (and that one is a way less bad as a reason then some other stuff they do IMHO)

[Fake]

Noon update: 55.6M Yuan

 

Giving it a typical 2.5x multiplier from here, it looks like Sunday will come in 140m Yuan range.

 

$200M is probably gone at this point.

[hw64]

12 minutes ago, bangbingchan said:

Even FF7 2nd Weekend is ahead of TFA OD.So it's 6th highest Saturday.Mojin first Sat is also higher than TFA.If you notice,DL describe highest Saturday start,not highest Saturday

 

That's what I was talking about. F7's first saturday is during its second weekend, since it opened on a Sunday. As for Mojin, you're totally right. So TFA is actually 6th.

[POTUS 2020]

3 minutes ago, Fake said:

Noon update: 55.6M Yuan

 

Giving it a typical 2.5x multiplier from here, it looks like Sunday will come in 140m Yuan range.

 

$200M is probably gone at this point.

Thinking same again. 140m +/-5%

Would be nice to see it hold -25%. 145m

[Lihongkim]

Just opened on Sat, how can it has a big drop on Sun? 

[Olive]

Just now, The Good Olive said:

Top Single Day gross in China  (day in release)
#1.Fast &Furious 7--------398.7M----------4.12.2015  (OD)*

#2.Lost in Hong Kong----247.0M----------9.26.2015 (2nd)
#3.The Avengers 2--------238.5M----------5.16.2015  (5th)
#4.Fast &Furious 7--------228.0M----------4.18.2015  (7th)

#5.Lost in Hong Kong----226.5M----------9.27.2015 (3rd)

#6.Mojin--------------------226.3M----------12.19.2015(2nd)
#7.Trans4mers-------------223.1M----------6.28.2014  (2nd)
#8.The Avengers 2--------217.2M----------5.12.2015  (OD)*
#9.Trans4mers-------------213.4M----------6.29.2014  (3rd)

10.Star Wars EP7----------210.0M----------1.09.2015  (OD)*

11.Mojin---------------------203.7M----------12.20.2015(3rd)
12.Trans4mers-------------194.8M----------6.27.2014  (OD)*
13.Fast &Furious 7--------187.2M----------4.13.2015  (2nd)
14.Fast &Furious 7--------187.0M----------4.19.2015  (8th)
15.Monster Hunt-----------185.2M----------7.18.2015  (3rd)
16.Monster Hunt-----------179.3M----------7.16.2015  (4th)
17.Monster Hunt-----------172.8M----------7.16.2015  (OD)*
18.The Avengers 2--------170.1M----------5.16.2015  (6th)
19.Jurassic World ---------169.9M----------6.13.2015  (4th)
20.Fast &Furious 7--------167.0M----------4.14.2015  (3rd)
Saturday in blue font

 

Edited January 10, 2016 by The Good Olive

[Lihongkim]

Where is Lost in Hong Kong OD?