China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[vc2002]

1 hour ago, applek said:

It's interesting cuz I think the Chinese market works differently.  They have more flock mentality and will watch movies if they see a lot of other ppl watching it or super high box office.  And it seems like Internet publicity does affect Chinese audiences a lot.

 

Flock mentality can be found everywhere on this planet. It's not particularly a China thing. It's just there are more people (or people that goes to theater to be more precise) in China than any other country and this flock mentality thing gets maximized.

 

In China 60% of all movie tickets are sold online, so yes internet IS a major part of the game here.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2016 by vc2002

[Fake]

57.2M as of 12:00PM

 

Should get 2.5x from here (140-145M).

[Fake]

37 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Just read this news: http://www.koimoi.com/bollywood-popular/baahubali-to-release-in-china-in-may/

 

 

Hopefully it can earn more than PK did, the plot is a sprawling war epic which may find favor in China.

I am thinking 100-150M range. So it may/maynot beat PK (120M+).

[TigerPaw]

8 hours ago, vc2002 said:

 

Directed by the most worshipped, most talked-about Chinese actor on the internet Stephen Chow. He's actually been a director for over ten years now, yet he's so well-known that even only as a director his name alone will be enough to sell a movie. But, what makes it absurdly interesting is that his most worshipped works were all from his young-actor's career and most of those never got released in mainland China (he's from Hong Kong so are his early films).  Most in mainland China got access to those films from pirated VCD, DVD and so on. That somehow created a weird and yet strong nostalgia factor, as there's now a frequently quoted slogan here on the internet "we owe Stephen Chow a movie ticket". 

 

Well, we all know Chinese really eat nostalgia (which is the biggest reason to FF7's Chinese breakout), and its release time frame pushed the nostalgia factor to even greater impact as the last 7 days are the Chinese New Year holiday and it's obviously the time of the year that poeple feel most connected with nostalgia.

 

So, Stephen Chow and nostalgia, are mainly why this $270m-in-7days happened.

 

Haha. I do hope that the same nostalgia factor can be applied to CTHD2 this coming weekend, even though the first one bombed 16years ago.

 Buzz hasn't been that strong. I am predicting 200m to 300m yuan(optimistic) total gross and its run will end when BvS arrives.

 

It will lose to mermaid this weekend.

Particularly concerned about CTHD2 because Wu Xia films(not just action or martial arts films, but pure Wu Xia films) were the treasures of China movie-making, but the trend has changed so tremendously that no one dares to make a Wu Xia movie because the genre is pretty much dead.  Wu Xia films have gave way to romance and comedy flicks in China, and big budgeted Sci-Fi flicks.

 

The last good Wu Xia films were Reign of Assasins in 2010, Flying Swords of Dragon Gate in 2013 and Wu Xia(Dragon) in 2011, hopefully CTHD2 can revive the genre and the interest, very unlikely though.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 15, 2016 by TigerPaw

[Fake]

2PM updates vs final grosses:

 

MON - 170.1 - 267.8 = 1.57x

TUE - 162.8 - 239.5 = 1.47x

WED - 161.9 - 245.2 = 1.52x

THU - 150.5 - 244.4 = 1.62x

FRI - 139.6 - 241.8 = 1.73x

SAT - 128.9 - 237.0 = 1.84x

SUN - 204.7 - 305.0 = 1.49x

 

MON - 84.0

 

Even if it gets "only" 1.84x that it did on Saturday, it would still do 155M! However, I think it may go higher and may even cross 160M!!

 

So

-3B is locked.

-3.29B ($500M) is likely.

-3.5B is possible.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

This Merimaid mutanted. Why it is not slowing down soon.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

3/4	Zootopia
3/4	Ip Man 3
3/18	Eddie the Eagle
3/25	Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
4/1	Chongqing Hot Po
4/1	Who Sleeps My Bro
4/1	The Bodyguard
4/8	London Has Fallen
4/15	The Jungle Book
Mar TBD	Gods of Egypt

[TigerPaw]

26 minutes ago, firedeep said:

3/4	Zootopia
3/4	Ip Man 3
3/18	Eddie the Eagle
3/25	Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice
4/1	Chongqing Hot Po
4/1	Who Sleeps My Bro
4/1	The Bodyguard
4/8	London Has Fallen
4/15	The Jungle Book
Mar TBD	Gods of Egypt

All the best for Ip Man 3.

Good! End March to First half of april looks good.   London hss fallen and Jungle book release dates are confirmed? 

Still need some big films to carry April, last April was good due to FF7. 

 

Ps: Saw on Gewara.. November Man listed on 4th March and Gods of Eygpt on 11th March, confirmed?

Edited February 15, 2016 by TigerPaw

[Polaroids]

CTHD2 is already getting bad reviews. I don't see it doing all that well.. and both Donnie Yen and Michelle Yeoh might be known internationally but they're not huge box office draws in China.

[baumer]

Thanks for the explanation and background on Mermaid guys...much appreciated.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

40 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

All the best for Ip Man 3.

Good! End March to First half of april looks good.   London hss fallen and Jungle book release dates are confirmed? 

Still need some big films to carry April, last April was good due to FF7. 

 

Ps: Saw on Gewara.. November Man listed on 4th March and Gods of Eygpt on 11th March, confirmed?

London has fallen and Jungle book confirmed date. Gods of Eygpt rumored for 3.11. Not sure about Nov Man.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

29 minutes ago, Polaroids said:

CTHD2 is already getting bad reviews. I don't see it doing all that well.. and both Donnie Yen and Michelle Yeoh might be known internationally but they're not huge box office draws in China.

honestly, 300m at CBO is not well at all for a $70m budgeted copro movie .... 

Edited February 15, 2016 by firedeep

[POTUS 2020]

That puppy wont quit, might be over 170m. I haven't seen a local do more than 5x pre-sales before. Market will drop close to 30% from Saturday just like last year. 

3 Sunday opener 's are all duds. KFP3 will be back up over 7% tomorrow. Should keep 4-5% thru the weekend and total 930m+ on sunday. Mermaid looking to be over 2.8B on sunday. Assuming it makes 500m+ from this Friday to next Thursday bringing the total near 3B, 50%  drops going forward takes it to 3.5B. 

Edited February 15, 2016 by No Prisoners

[druv10]

Mermaid is over 154M with still few hrs to go. Fake was right, it should hit 160M+. 3B is a done deal, with great shot at 3.5B and  maybe even 4B  with great late legs.

 

[keysersoze123]

This is crazy. pre-sales looked weak yesterday night( at around 25m). I thought it will drop to something like 100-120m. instead another really strong hold.

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, Polaroids said:

CTHD2 is already getting bad reviews. I don't see it doing all that well.. and both Donnie Yen and Michelle Yeoh might be known internationally but they're not huge box office draws in China.

Mind showing me a url? Haven't read anything bad other than Screen International by James Marsh. James Marsh has a bit of bias against DY's films i think, he reviewed Kungfu Jungle and Ip Man 3 badly but both turned out to be above average and award winning films.

 

The HK Cantonese version(96mins) is shorter than the Mandarin China version(103mins), I read reviews from the New York Test Screenings last year though, positive stuff for the original English version. Some told me its better than 14 Blades and Reign of Assassins. 

 

I wouldn't assume it is a master piece as good as the first one though hence my optimistic estimate is 200 to 300m Yuan which like firedeep said.. is not exactly good.

 

Maybe the dubbing?

Edited February 15, 2016 by TigerPaw

[peludo]

1 hour ago, druv10 said:

Mermaid is over 154M with still few hrs to go. Fake was right, it should hit 160M+. 3B is a done deal, with great shot at 3.5B and  maybe even 4B  with great late legs.

 

So, we can say that $500m is close to be locked, $550m are possible and there is a slim chance of $600m, isn't it?

Edited February 15, 2016 by peludo

[keysersoze123]

its at 170m now !!!! one of the openers yesterday dropped like 85% while mermaid after having grossed 1.8B is dropping just 40% from inflated sunday. at this rate it should be 2.8B+ after coming sunday(dont know the high end). 500m is locked for sure.

[efialtes76]

Maoyan 9:30pm

 

Mermaid:172m

TMK2:50.76m

Macau 3:43.5m

KFP3:15.15m

Edited February 15, 2016 by efialtes76

[POTUS 2020]

30 minutes ago, peludo said:

So, we can say that $500m is close to be locked, $550m are possible and there is a slim chance of $600m, isn't it?

I would say 500m locked. It would need a couple of -38% holds, like MH, 2 and 3 weekends from now to get to $600.

Edited February 15, 2016 by No Prisoners