China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[GOXOG]

1 minute ago, No Prisoners said:

-18% for the day. The evening erosion has slowed. Maybe it will stabilize.

PS +26% for tomorrow.

so it cant reach 200M anymore or it still have a chance

 

[POTUS 2020]

24 minutes ago, GOXOG said:

so it cant reach 200M anymore or it still have a chance

 

No. Definitely under 1.2b / $184m and possibly 10% wprse

[seduh]

Wow, bad drops, I expected more, maybe AOU bad wom really affect this movie. The only big Hollywood movie to mach or exced expectation is Zootopia, let's wait for Alice, Xmen and Warcraft (I think Warcraft will be a $100 earner)

[Agafin]

Just now, seduh said:

Wow, bad drops, I expected more, maybe AOU bad wom really affect this movie. The only big Hollywood movie to mach or exced expectation is Zootopia, let's wait for Alice, Xmen and Warcraft (I think Warcraft will be a $100 earner)

 

Actually, piracy seems to be what is killing it according to regulars of this thread. It's WOM seemed pretty good initially. Though it probably would've still grossed less than AoU given that its Friday opening day was lower than AoU's Tuesday OD. Zootopia does seem likely to be the biggest HLW movie this year unless Warcraft or Independence Day break out.

Edited May 12, 2016 by Agafin

[Lihongkim]

The answer is tired !

[jiangsen]

39 minutes ago, Lihongkim said:

The answer is tired !

You mean "fatigue" (疲劳)?

[John Marston]

so Civil War is yet another film that was overpredicted in China. 

[Sal]

Piracy is a real killer for the China BO.

[WrathOfHan]

2 hours ago, Sal said:

Piracy is a real killer for the China BO.

Yes and no, The Revenant was still able to do well with screeners out for months.

[POTUS 2020]

PS up 40% on cap. Let's hope evening holds up. Perhaps those that were going to go but opted to borrow from the web have washed out of the dailies and the numbers will stabilize to more normal DoD percentages.

 

Projecting today out thru next Thursday. BO will be between 2 and 2.1B for may on the 19th.

AB looking to open small next weekend. The month may struggle to be flat YoY at 3.2m even if alice has a big weekend to end the month.

Edited May 13, 2016 by No Prisoners

[TigerPaw]

8 hours ago, Agafin said:

 

Actually, piracy seems to be what is killing it according to regulars of this thread. It's WOM seemed pretty good initially. Though it probably would've still grossed less than AoU given that its Friday opening day was lower than AoU's Tuesday OD. 

I think that the effects of piracy might be overstated here. Yes it is a reason but not that strong a reason, look at revenant or expendables 3! Did so well despite piracy...

 

The truth is WOM of Civil War is medicore amonv passer-bys(non fans movie audiences). while the online scores on chinese sites. well most people think they are overrated due to marvel fans so they don't even take it as reference.

Lastly. Superhero fatigue.

 

 If this was called "Avengers Civil War" might earn more. I think many chinese audiences don't care for capt.

Edited May 13, 2016 by TigerPaw

[Lihongkim]

What is the Chinese title of this movie? Still America? 

[TigerPaw]

37 minutes ago, Lihongkim said:

What is the Chinese title of this movie? Still America? 

Yeah. Literally translated " Team Leader America: Internal War" hahaha

Which is really similar to captain america civil war. If i was a passerby who hasn't watch the trailer.. i wouldn't watch it.

Don't forget we are talking about Chinese Audiences who grew up watching Donnie Yen and Jet Li. The action of Civil War is not even on par with Flashpoint(2007) or Hero (2002) to be honest. So nothing really fresh i feel for chinese audiences.

[phoeeeel]

2 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

Yeah. Literally translated " Team Leader America: Internal War" hahaha

Which is really similar to captain america civil war. If i was a passerby who hasn't watch the trailer.. i wouldn't watch it.

Don't forget we are talking about Chinese Audiences who grew up watching Donnie Yen and Jet Li. The action of Civil War is not even on par with Flashpoint(2007) or Hero (2002) to be honest. So nothing really fresh i feel for chinese audiences.

I think this is true. Hand to hand battle in superhero movies may be refreshing for audience here, but nothing new for the Chinese audiences. And despite being incredibly fun, the airport battle doesn't have that "epic" vibe IMO, plus there is no giant robot or giant monster.

 

Also, I learned today that this movie might have started a "civil war" between cap's and ironman's fangirls on the Chinese internet. I saw people bringing this up as a reason why the box office is not up to expectation, although I don't know how exactly fangirls can actually influence movie goers and hurt box office. 

[fmpro]

Looks like a 40-50% jump today

[fmpro]

If 16,30 is still midpoint we're looking at 47ish today. Up almost 50%..

 

Weekend should see around 65% drop

[POTUS 2020]

6 minutes ago, fmpro said:

If 16,30 is still midpoint we're looking at 47ish today. Up almost 50%..

 

Weekend should see around 65% drop

Yup. The PS multi, the run rate and the 430 midpoint are all pointing to high 40s, +50%~

[POTUS 2020]

6 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

I think that the effects of piracy might be overstated here. Yes it is a reason but not that strong a reason, look at revenant or expendables 3! Did so well despite piracy...

 

The truth is WOM of Civil War is medicore amonv passer-bys(non fans movie audiences). while the online scores on chinese sites. well most people think they are overrated due to marvel fans so they don't even take it as reference.

Lastly. Superhero fatigue.

 

 If this was called "Avengers Civil War" might earn more. I think many chinese audiences don't care for capt.

I beg to differ on the piracy comment. BVS had very poor WoM and you can see it in the numbers out of the gate. Maybe CA3 has overstated WOM but the numbers radically changed the day after the leak

        BvS.       Ca3

S.   +20%      +35%

S     -33%       -28%

M    -68%       -67%     copy released in afternoon

T.    -14.4.     -16.9

W    -15.3.     -20.7

Th.  -13.5.     -18.9

It's obvious it taken a hit. I don't recall seeing more than one 17% drop in a midweek, let alone 3 for a large movie with terrible WOM.

You don't know the affect on TREV or XP3 because it happened before the release. They could have done 20% more as it is apparent that CA2 would have with just BvS so so midweek holds and this 50% bump it will have today that BvS couldn't muster. 

Edited May 13, 2016 by No Prisoners

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, No Prisoners said:

I beg to differ on the piracy comment. BVS had very poor WoM and you can see it in the numbers out of the gate. Maybe CA3 has overstated WOM but the numbers radically changed the day after the leak

        BvS.       Ca3

S.   +20%      +35%

S     -33%       -28%

M    -68%       -67%     copy released in afternoon

T.    -14.4.     -16.9

W    -15.3.     -20.7

Th.  -13.5.     -18.9

It's obvious it taken a hit. I don't recall seeing more than one 17% drop in a midweek, let alone 3 for a large movie with terrible WOM.

You don't know the affect on TREV or XP3 because it happened before the release. They could have done 20% more as it is apparent that CA2 would have with just BvS so so midweek holds and this 50% bump it will have today that BvS couldn't muster. 

Do you agree though.. that the lack of competition this weekend will likely cause a huge rebound?

[POTUS 2020]

21 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Do you agree though.. that the lack of competition this weekend will likely cause a huge rebound?

In part yes. BVS couldn't bump on Friday partly because of WoM and because of competition. However I believed it was going to have a 50% bump today, lack competition aknowledged, but from a much higher Thursday number. I think the percentages will normalize as the downloaders have already removed themselves selves from the market proportionately over the coming days. The Thursday evening halt of hourly DoD declining percentages shows that. Now it may run at the expected percentage declines/bumps DoD. Up 48-50% today, up 80-100% tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if next week is 12% DoD.