China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[bladels]

10 minutes ago, A2k Raptor said:

AIW went from it's lowest-at-anytime 8.0 rating, to now 8.6 in last 10 hours. So should end up closer to 9 than now.

It's really weird that early rating is so low. Are there any "Facebook groups" like in the US?

Edited May 11, 2018 by bladels

[UserHN]

4 minutes ago, GOXOG said:

if wom is good maybe even more 

Yeah, Maoyan again . 

[nguyenkhoi282]

6 minutes ago, bladels said:

It's really weird that early rating is so low. Are there any "Facebook group" like in the US

Early political attacks, but they won't last for long.

 

Btw how do we delete comment on BOT, i can't find a button or anthing (i'm on mobile)

[UserHN]

4 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

I’m out of likes but the biggest thank you!!

And that user with '7' in his username should be thread-banned too. Can't remember the exact name. Begins with 't'. Also, that GraceRandolph username.

Edited May 11, 2018 by UserHN

[Olive]

6 minutes ago, bladels said:

It's really weird that early rating is so low. Are there any "Facebook groups" like in the US?

more than 60K(mostly low ratings)  were added before movie opened.

 

20 friends of mine on Douban give it an average score of 8.5.

For comps, RP1 was 8.8

Edited May 11, 2018 by Proxima Olive

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Huh so maybe Infinity War was the victim of early downvoting like Black Panther was. Wonder if they'll do the same to Ranger Solo. 

[fabiopazzo2]

1 minute ago, Proxima Olive said:

more than 60K(mostly low ratings)  were added before movie opened.

What a Stupid people 😡

 

i dont think can afflicted the box office performance, I’m sure people love this movie

[ZeeSoh]

10 minutes ago, UserHN said:

And that user with '7' in his username should be thread-banned too. Can't remember the exact name. Begins with 't'. Also, that GraceRandolph username.

I’ve pretty much put on ignore anyone who does concern trolling and general trolling like the Cameron [mod edit]. It makes the forum experience just that smoother. I dont have to look at their posts and I straight up ignore any posts that quote them as well. I suggest you and everyone to do that as well

[GOXOG]

2 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

I’ve pretty much put on ignore anyone who does concern trolling and general trolling like the Cameron [mod edit]. It makes the forum experience just that smoother. I dont have to look at their posts and I straight up ignore any posts that quote them as well. I suggest you and everyone to do that as well

already do it long time ago 

[MrGlass2]

5 hours ago, YLF said:

Is it possible theres some entity sabotaging its rating?

[ZeeSoh]

@UserHN you asked earlier about the legs for this movie. Well 2-3factors will affect it

 

1) movies this huge are always frontloaded. On top of this SH movies are even more frontloaded

 

2) Movies in China seems to be getting even more frontloaded in general recently due to the huge amount of screens available

 

3) This has virtually no competition for many weeks till JW opens in mid June. That will help it retain a lot of screens

 

So there are things in its favour and things against it as well. Ratings are decent in that they wont affect legs either direction. Overall I think it will have legs better than BP/SMH but not as good as Thor 3

[ZeeSoh]

On 5/8/2018 at 9:36 PM, ZeeSoh said:

. Right now I have it at 204m usd opening weekend with decent ratings. I am fairly conservative with this prediction and am using very low multipliers so it could blow way past this number. On the other hand if ratings are as bad as Black Panther then it could come in lower than this. 

 

Projections time!

 

Friday - seems to be heading towards sub 400 at this point which would be a multi from PS of 2.2 or lower compared to the 2.5+ of FF8. Perhaps a 390m total for the day

 

Saturday - As of 3pm PS is up about 21% from yesterday and around a run rate of 4ph. We saw the last few days that the midpoint for PS increase is around 5pm. If that holds true today as well then total increase should be around 55% for the day to a final total of 189

 

Now FF8 managed around a 3.07 multi from PS for this day. Its safe to say that IW will not achieve this multi and will come lower. How much lower is up in the air but I am going with a multi just shy of 2.6 to give a Saturday total of 490 which would be about 25.6% increase from Friday. For reference FF8 increase just about 16.8% on this day. 

 

But I would just like to add that MCU movies play strongly on Saturday’s as we have seen in DOM market so IW could play more strongly on Saturday than what I project. 

 

Sunday - FF8 fell about 21% this day with 9+ ratings. BP fell about 37% with an 8 rating. IW will fall somewhere in between. I think it will drop somewhere in the 25-30% zone for 350-370 total for the day. 

 

Total - adding it all up gives me a total of about 1300m Yuan or $204.8m usd which is what I thought it would do about 2 days back as you can see above. 

[bangbingchan]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

Have you got a link for this? 😊

http://itunes.apple.com/cn/app/g.e.m./id1020547107 choose English ver 

[pepsa]

15 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Projections time!

 

Friday - seems to be heading towards sub 400 at this point which would be a multi from PS of 2.2 or lower compared to the 2.5+ of FF8. Perhaps a 390m total for the day

 

Saturday - As of 3pm PS is up about 21% from yesterday and around a run rate of 4ph. We saw the last few days that the midpoint for PS increase is around 5pm. If that holds true today as well then total increase should be around 55% for the day to a final total of 189

 

Now FF8 managed around a 3.07 multi from PS for this day. Its safe to say that IW will not achieve this multi and will come lower. How much lower is up in the air but I am going with a multi just shy of 2.6 to give a Saturday total of 490 which would be about 25.6% increase from Friday. For reference FF8 increase just about 16.8% on this day. 

 

But I would just like to add that MCU movies play strongly on Saturday’s as we have seen in DOM market so IW could play more strongly on Saturday than what I project. 

 

Sunday - FF8 fell about 21% this day with 9+ ratings. BP fell about 37% with an 8 rating. IW will fall somewhere in between. I think it will drop somewhere in the 25-30% zone for 350-370 total for the day. 

 

Total - adding it all up gives me a total of about 1300m Yuan or $204.8m usd which is what I thought it would do about 2 days back as you can see above. 

What was the run rate over the last hours?

[UserHN]

19 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Projections time!

 

Friday - seems to be heading towards sub 400 at this point which would be a multi from PS of 2.2 or lower compared to the 2.5+ of FF8. Perhaps a 390m total for the day

 

Saturday - As of 3pm PS is up about 21% from yesterday and around a run rate of 4ph. We saw the last few days that the midpoint for PS increase is around 5pm. If that holds true today as well then total increase should be around 55% for the day to a final total of 189

 

Now FF8 managed around a 3.07 multi from PS for this day. Its safe to say that IW will not achieve this multi and will come lower. How much lower is up in the air but I am going with a multi just shy of 2.6 to give a Saturday total of 490 which would be about 25.6% increase from Friday. For reference FF8 increase just about 16.8% on this day. 

 

But I would just like to add that MCU movies play strongly on Saturday’s as we have seen in DOM market so IW could play more strongly on Saturday than what I project. 

 

Sunday - FF8 fell about 21% this day with 9+ ratings. BP fell about 37% with an 8 rating. IW will fall somewhere in between. I think it will drop somewhere in the 25-30% zone for 350-370 total for the day. 

 

Total - adding it all up gives me a total of about 1300m Yuan or $204.8m usd which is what I thought it would do about 2 days back as you can see above. 

What's the record to break in local currency if IW wants to have the highest OW gross?

[peludo]

1 minute ago, UserHN said:

What's the record to break in local currency if IW wants to have the highest OW gross?

If I am not wrong, F8 did 1.352b Yuan OW

[ZeeSoh]

6 minutes ago, pepsa said:

What was the run rate over the last hours?

Havent been keeping track mate but if the past 30 mins is anything to go by then it is doing about 14/hr

[pepsa]

Just now, ZeeSoh said:

Havent been keeping track mate but if the past 30 mins is anything to go by then it is doing about 14/hr

Where do you check this?

[POTUS 2020]

F8                                 IW

11AM  196,79                205.6

12PM  211,61                216.5

1PM    229,42                230.5                 

2PM    245,36                245.5     

3PM    265,07                259.6

4PM    281,55                273.5

5PM    298,69                288.5

6PM    315,63

7PM    333,23

8PM    341,96

 

4-430 was at the 7m average. The last half hour was 8m. If its going to ramp up to 21m+ p/h, it'll start now

 

 

 

Edited May 11, 2018 by POTUS

[Fake]

31 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Projections time!

 

Friday - seems to be heading towards sub 400 at this point which would be a multi from PS of 2.2 or lower compared to the 2.5+ of FF8. Perhaps a 390m total for the day

 

Saturday - As of 3pm PS is up about 21% from yesterday and around a run rate of 4ph. We saw the last few days that the midpoint for PS increase is around 5pm. If that holds true today as well then total increase should be around 55% for the day to a final total of 189

 

Now FF8 managed around a 3.07 multi from PS for this day. Its safe to say that IW will not achieve this multi and will come lower. How much lower is up in the air but I am going with a multi just shy of 2.6 to give a Saturday total of 490 which would be about 25.6% increase from Friday. For reference FF8 increase just about 16.8% on this day. 

 

But I would just like to add that MCU movies play strongly on Saturday’s as we have seen in DOM market so IW could play more strongly on Saturday than what I project. 

 

Sunday - FF8 fell about 21% this day with 9+ ratings. BP fell about 37% with an 8 rating. IW will fall somewhere in between. I think it will drop somewhere in the 25-30% zone for 350-370 total for the day. 

 

Total - adding it all up gives me a total of about 1300m Yuan or $204.8m usd which is what I thought it would do about 2 days back as you can see above. 

Sounds pretty reasonable. 400M looks tough now, unless there is a significant improvement in the evening.

 

@3PM: 259.6M

@4PM: 273.5M

 

Hourly additions (IW vs FF8)

 

11AM-12PM - 10.0 vs 14.8 = 67%

12PM-1PM -  14.0 vs 17.8 = 79%

1PM-2PM - 15.1 vs 16.0 = 95%

2PM-3PM - 14.1 vs 19.7 = 72%

3PM-4PM - 13.9 vs 16.5 = 84%

 

57M in last 4 hours as compared to 70M of FF8 (81.5%). Needs 93% from here to reach 400M mark.

Edited May 11, 2018 by Fake