efialtes76 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 11 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: It will have 0 impact on any of box office IMO. The film was supposed to be online on THU itself anyways, so anyone who wanted to watch it on his devices in free will be watching it then only. Now they just watching a few days early. Thanks! Too much drama for 3 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Zero (0) Impact Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerPaw Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said: It will have 0 impact on any of box office IMO. The film was supposed to be online on THU itself anyways, so anyone who wanted to watch it on his devices in free will be watching it then only. Now they just watching a few days early. Hard to quantify though, i mean there are GA outside of US that does not know it will be a simultaneous streaming release in the US. Fans or people who knows BO and studios obviously knows though. Especially leading to the final days of presales; if i was a GA searching for showtimes or reviews on weibo to decide whether to book a ticket this weekend and saw a HD link out there..i think i will definitely rethink about buying the ticket? I am not sure about the magnitude of impact but i genuinely doubt it will be 0. If GvK opened in China day-and-date vs HBO max release instead of being theaters 1 week earlier - there would definitely have been some impact right? I just think that timing of piracy also matters. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie Jatinder Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, TigerPaw said: Hard to quantify though, i mean there are GA outside of US that does not know it will be a simultaneous streaming release in the US. Fans or people who knows BO and studios obviously knows though. Especially leading to the final days of presales; if i was a GA searching for showtimes or reviews on weibo to decide whether to book a ticket this weekend and saw a HD link out there..i think i will definitely rethink about buying the ticket? I am not sure about the magnitude of impact but i genuinely doubt it will be 0. small movie. doesn't really matter 👀 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Nothing matters. Warner Bros is not dependent on Box Office. HBO Max will also add some profit. Also, it is not a very heavily budget film. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Issac Newton said: Monday Estimates: The Battle At Lake Changjin : ¥50M (~$7.8M) / ¥4965M (~$772.2M) 19D My Parents, My Homeland : ¥12M (~$1.9M) / ¥1355M (~$210.7M) 19D Saturday Fiction : ¥1.6M (~$250K) / ¥16.1M (~$2.5M) 4D Turandot : ¥1M (~$160K) / ¥15.8M (~$2.5M) 4D Waterboys : ¥0.9M (~$140K) / ¥59.2M (~$9.2M) 18D $795M by Thursday and $820M-$825M by Sunday ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, LPLC said: $795M by Thursday and $820M-$825M by Sunday ? I can not say much about the USD value because one site says $770M until Sunday, so it should be $778M on Monday. BTW, ¥5000M is sure for tomorrow. Total Projection by WK as I expect 10/24 : ¥5500M-¥5600M 10/31 : ¥5800M-¥5900M Complete Run : ¥6200M+ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, Issac Newton said: I can not say much about the USD value because one site says $770M until Sunday, so it should be $778M on Monday. BTW, ¥5000M is sure for tomorrow. Total Projection by WK as I expect 10/24 : ¥5500M-¥5600M 10/31 : ¥5800M-¥5900M Complete Run : ¥6200M+ ¥5500M-¥5600M by Sunday ? Do you expect a flat weekend at ¥400M-¥500M ? You are very optimistic, I expect more of a weekend around ¥200M and a cumulative ¥5300M by Sunday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 @LPLC, it's actually not like. Perhaps, for ages China Box Office actually can't be determined well. Only WOM and big OW work out. Legs were never satisfying. That's why many forecast like Deadline Hollywood $1000M+ final for DC3....are never found to be fulfilled. I am fine with your forecast unless there's any major release, TBALC is unlikely to affected. I just have a tensed on Douban ratings that has been reducing each day (will ultimately affect legs) After today's estimate, I will be able to figure out it's weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 So when can we expect the non-market factor ticket purchase for Chang Jin Lake to subside? A lot of countries have patriotic movies and it is understandable but none of it going this shameless like in China. This is like North Korea, or HItler or ww2 Japan in making. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 (edited) Please do not speak about 🗾 Japan in WW2. Edited October 19, 2021 by Issac Newton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The GOAT Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 People and their World War 2 analogies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 (edited) TBALC has broken ¥5000M barrier (adding ¥33.3M today as of 19:18 CST). Now, running behind Ne Zha (¥5032M), Hi Mom (¥5413M) &Wolf Warrior 2 (¥5689M) Edited October 19, 2021 by Issac Newton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 (edited) Tuesday Estimates: The Battle At Lake Changjin : ¥46M (~$7.2M) / ¥5013M (~$785.1M) 20D My Parents, My Homeland : ¥11M (~$1.7M) / ¥1366M (~$214M) 20D Knock Knock : ¥1.5M (~$230K) / ¥9.2M (~$1.4M) 🅿️ (Open at 10/22) Saturday Fiction : ¥1.2M (~$190K) / ¥17.2M (~$2.7M) 5D Waterboys : ¥0.7M (~$120K) / ¥59.8M (~$9.4M) 19D After surpassing ¥5000M, TBALC immediate target is to reduce Ne Zha (¥5032M) to fourth. With each passing day, the Cumulative total is strongly approaching Hi Mom &Wolf Warrior 2. MPMH is doing excellent with each passing day. Will try ¥1450M+ by Sun (10/24). Edited October 19, 2021 by Issac Newton 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 TBALC Dailies Projection: Wed : ¥45-¥50M (¥5058-¥5063M) Thru : ¥45-¥50M (¥5103-¥5107M) Fri : ¥70-¥100M (¥5173-¥5203M) Sat : ¥90-¥120M (¥5263-¥5323M) Sun : ¥90-¥120M (¥5353-¥5443M) By 10/24, TBALC will target ~¥5400M. Dune opens at 10/22. Box Office might be affected on the opening day. But, if the film follows the former one then TBALC will win the Weekend (10/22-10/24) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Issac Newton Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 TBALC Weekend Projection: Only by total By 10/24 : ¥5350M - ¥5450M (vs Dune) By 10/31 : ¥5500M - ¥5600M (vs NTTD) By 11/07 : ¥5700M - ¥5800M (vs Venom 2) By 11/14 : ¥5850M - ¥5900M (vs Venom 2) By 11/21 : ¥5900M - ¥5925M By 11/28 : ¥5925M - ¥5930M Finals : ¥5800M - ¥6000M NTTD release is going to affect the Daily Box Office and also the weekend. So, forecast after 10/31 can not be determined well. Note: Venom 2 release date is not confirmed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 My TBALC Weekend Projection : By 10/24 : ¥5300M - ¥5350M By 10/31 : ¥5450M - ¥5500M By 11/07 : ¥5550M - ¥5600M By 11/14 : ¥5600M - ¥5650M Finals : ¥5650M - ¥5700M TBALC will overtake Hi, mom without problems but I still have doubts for WW2, the final run will be very tight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 Venom 2 is down to 5.8/10 on Douban. Mostly, Douban score doesn't matter so much. But under 6.0/10 is definitely not a good signal. For Hollywood movies, only F9(hail Vin Diesel), The Great Wall(co-pro), xXx(hail Vin Diesel again), The Meg(co-pro) hit ¥1,000M under that situations. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LPLC Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 9 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said: Venom 2 is down to 5.8/10 on Douban. Mostly, Douban score doesn't matter so much. But under 6.0/10 is definitely not a good signal. For Hollywood movies, only F9(hail Vin Diesel), The Great Wall(co-pro), xXx(hail Vin Diesel again), The Meg(co-pro) hit ¥1,000M under that situations. Let's hope for $150M. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KP1025 Posted October 20, 2021 Share Posted October 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, LPLC said: Let's hope for $150M. That would be a similar drop that F9 had from F8 in China. Will be interesting to see if Maoyan score for Venom 2 does go below 8 like F9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...