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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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vc2002 Summer Tentpole

vc2002

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I know it is difficult to predict these things so far in advance... but does anyone think $500m might not be so far-fetched for Avatar 2?

 

Avatar made $200m with just 1/4 the screens TF4 had. That was considered to be a test to the limit of the market. Now, TF4 will make around $300m. It's safe to say that TF4 hasn't brought out the full potential of Chinese market at this moment. With still 2 years to go, yes $500m is definitely possible.

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keysersoze123 Global Phenomenon

keysersoze123

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Avatar made $200m with just 1/4 the screens TF4 had. That was considered to be a test to the limit of the market. Now, TF4 will make around $300m. It's safe to say that TF4 hasn't brought out the full potential of Chinese market at this moment. With still 2 years to go, yes $500m is definitely possible.

 

But Avatar had extended run with little competition. Will that be true for the sequel? 

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A Marvel Fanboy Global Phenomenon

A Marvel Fanboy

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Avatar 2 wont come until early 2017 or even early 2018, still another two and a half year years at least. A lot could change before that. The quota (aka, number of revenue shared imported releases) will be expanded in 2017 or 2018. Screen number could near 35000 by then. The 30-days run rule could change, too.Let's just say everything goes right.In my opinion, Avatar 2 should be the first movie to target 100 million admissions (100m adm. x 40 yuan = 4B yuan BO, or $645m in today's currency rate). Call me crazy ....If anything is certain, TF4 wont be replaced by Avatar 2. Because some other films will do it before A2. Gone with the Bullets or The Ghosts, for instance. Just yesterday an analyst told me he is pretty sure Gone with the Bullets will beat TF4 in BO, despite TF4 does 1.9B.TF4 will settle around 47m admissions. KFP3 should aim 60m in January 2016.

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vc2002 Summer Tentpole

vc2002

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But Avatar had extended run with little competition. Will that be true for the sequel? 

 

It will not have the extended run, but it will open a hell lot bigger won't it?

 

The point is, TF4's $300m clearly doesn't represent the limit of what a movie can do in this market at this point, so, yes TF4 is the highest grossing film of all time in China and $500m means $200m more, the gap might be smaller than it seems like. Plus the market is going to being expanding for 2 years before Avatar 2 hits.

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