China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Olive]

How big is Titanic's lead in admissions? Would any film be able to maybe pass it with in the next several years?

admissions record is currently held by Transformers 4.

[Emirazza]

I don't think Chinese would have any money left in their pockets to watch AoU! 

[tomknf]

admissions record is currently held by Transformers 4.

 

What??? Damn, that's impressive.

[Quigley]

If it makes $100M during the next weekend then a $400M total is very likely.

[Dementeleus]

 

Since the opening weekends are not comparable and making it hard to see which is ahead and by how much, I created this table to attempt to project the BO based on individual days going forward. Hard to tell if FF7 is having these huge weekdays because of less weekend burn off or if it will be hurt in its run going forward do to the shortened OW.  We can compare the daily % change side by side then multiply out a projection. OW BO is removed when tabulating the percentage of BO for TF4 going forward. A multiplier is then used on FF7 with the OW then added back in so that we have an apples to apple comparison, sort of... 

 

 

    TF4         FF7   Day Daily BO % Change % of BO minus OW   Daily BO % Change Apply TF4 % plus OD ( US$ Proj Total (M) Mon 123.1   9.07   178   2,355 379 Tues 112.2 -8.85% 8.25   167 -6.18% 2,416 389 Wed 94.6 -15.69% 6.97           Thur 84.2 -10.99% 6.21           Fri 87.1 3.44% 6.42           Sat 129.6 48.79% 9.55           Sun 117.9 -9.03% 8.69          

 

 

Great post, No Prisoners!

[spizzer]

China total O/U domestic total?

They'll finish within 15M of each other. Three days in I'd lean under.

[vc2002]

WOM of FF6 has been incredibly excellent. There's no stopping at this moment except for of cause the inevitable screen losing.

Edited April 15, 2015 by vc2002

[tupek]

WOM of FF6 has been incredibly excellent. There's no stopping at this moment except for of cause the inevitable screen losing.

And how FF7's WOM?

[Black Hawk]

And how FF7's WOM?

 

Very good.

Movie          Douban/Gewara

FF7             8.7/9.4

Kingsman    8.7/9.2

BH6             8.7/9.4

Interstellar   9.1/8.9

[POTUS 2020]

		TF4								FF7
Day	Daily	% Change	% BO -OW	Total	$ Tot		Daily	% Change	TF4 vs FF7	Total	$ Tot	TF4 Day Mltplier	Day xM +OW	$ Proj
OW	630.7			630.7	103		392			392	63
Mon	123.1		9.07	753.8	124		178		44.60%	570	92	11.03	2,355	379
Tues	112.2	-8.85%	8.25	866	142		167	-6.18%	48.84%	737	119	12.12	2,416	389
Wed	94.6	-15.69%	6.97	960.6	157							14.35
Thur	84.2	-10.99%	6.21	1044.8	171							16.10
Fri	87.1	3.44%	6.42	1131.9	186							15.58
Sat	129.6	48.79%	9.55	1261.5	207							10.47
Sun	117.9	-9.03%	8.69	1379.4	226							11.51

 

 

A few columns added.

The TF4 daily percentage of BO reflects post OW BO

The FF7 projection = daily multiplier derived from TF4s% x day + OW

[vc2002]

And how FF7's WOM?

 

Wait, is it 2015?

 

Anyway, China is becoming such a weird market that all-time records getting beaten every one or two years. Now that is a market with such a massive volume, yet still growing in massive speed.

Edited April 15, 2015 by vc2002

[druv10]

350M is locked.It will have May day holiday to boost its legs.

Over.

 

 

This shocking to say the least.

 

Any chance it's run gets extended? At the rate it's going, it'll still be making substantial money on it's 30th day. 

[Kvikk Lunsj]

Wait, is it 2015?

 

Anyway, China is becoming such a weird market that all-time records getting beaten every one or two years. Now that is a market with such a massive volume, yet still growing in massive speed.

Billions of people live  in China so there is a lot of home for growth. 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

 

How much does China Film Co being a production company on the film help it in China?

 

The help was that F7 avoided a Monday opening ...... haha

Agreed with Druv on this, probably not so much

[druv10]

firedeep, do you think 400M is possible? 

[tupek]

May Day Holiday is an only one-day holiday in China?

[DeeCee]

   

The help was that F7 avoided a Monday opening ...... haha

Agreed with Druv on this, probably not so much

Now that it's opened so big is it now likely to hold theatres longer?

[Rudolf]

Iv never heard of this Domestic country you speak of

USA+Canada larger in area but less than 1/4 the inhabitants of China

[A Marvel Fanboy]

 

Can any of the experts here explain why FF7 is doing so well in China? It doesn't have an obvious draw like Transformers 4 did, so I'm curious. Was Paul Walker's death as big news in China as it was in North America? Obviously expansion of the Chinese market is part of it, but there must be more to it than that.

 

Actually I also wonder what happened between last June's TF4 and this April's F7. What could happen, what really happened in these 10 months ?

Since July 2013, in three, nearly four years, no Hollywood film, except for Cameron King of the World's Titanic, even had come close to that gross of TF3 (1.1B yuan). But now suddenly, a sequel coming from 'nowhere' is challenging TF4's all time record (2B). While all the other top Hollywood blockbusters like Cap2, X-Men, Apes2, Hobbit ... are still struggling in the 700~800m range, Furious 7 is jumping a whole billion to likely 2B+. Even without piracy, the last FF movie, F6, probably would only have done some 500m+, talking about a 400% or $220m+ increase for a sequel.

To the point that F7 doing 2B+ is almost an established fact (although IMO we still need to be cautious and see how it plays in the next few days), we could come up with one thousand reasons why it exploded so much:

Extra awareness created by Paul’s tragedy death

Good will from the previous two entries

Stunning visual spectacles

Solid film quality and excellent WOM

Suffient marketing

No topnotch Hollywood style visualfeast and brainless popcorn blockbuster set in modern background in Chinese cinema since TF4 (GotG is original, Interstellar is more sci-fi drama, Hobbit is western fantasy——which is never the most popular genre in China, Cinderella and Kingsman both have limited audience appeal ...)

Widest release in China history——95000 shows per day, can you imagine that ? The former record was only around 60000, and no other film opening against F7. TF4 had Breakup Guru, which grabbed nearly 700m, to 'steal' its audience.

.......

.......

Currently, there can be as many as 150k shows per day. F7 is taking a 60~70% screening share, or 90k~100k shows, these days. Average number of seats per screen/screening in China is 140. This means——let's exclude some 10~15% morning shows and unfavorable shows in remote areas, at its peak, China could maintain 18 million theater audience on a dialy basis, as such, allowing F7's to draw 10.2 million admissions on its opening Sunday. This almost touched the physical extreme for a 60~70% super opener. (Surely no movie can take away every single screen in such a big country)

However, at the end of the day, unfortunately, every reason we could think of inevitably feels rather strengthless for such a RIDICULOUS performance. I am actually speachless about F7's run in China ... Box office experts can come up with any explanation they think that would make sense, but through the curtain, I can already feel their lack of confidence. What do experts really know ? What do we know ? With box office, you never know. When surprising phenomenal like F7 comes, the only thing you can do is sit, watch and get mindblowed.

There is one thing that I am certain, or precisely, more certain than ever though: the enormous potential of China's box office.

Maybe F7 is just a random excepetion, or maybe it's time to go bold and update our expectations for some future Hollywood releases in China, such as TA2 ---- 2B, JW ---- 1.5B, Termiator ---- 1B, MI5 ---- 1.5B .....

 

Can any of the experts here explain why FF7 is doing so well in China? It doesn't have an obvious draw like Transformers 4 did, so I'm curious. Was Paul Walker's death as big news in China as it was in North America? Obviously expansion of the Chinese market is part of it, but there must be more to it than that.

 

Actually I also wonder what happened between last June's TF4 and this April's F7. What could happen, what really happened in these 10 months ?

Since July 2013, in three, nearly four years, no Hollywood film, except for Cameron King of the World's Titanic, even had come close to that gross of TF3 (1.1B yuan). But now suddenly, a sequel coming from 'nowhere' is challenging TF4's all time record (2B). While all the other top Hollywood blockbusters like Cap2, X-Men, Apes2, Hobbit ... are still struggling in the 700~800m range, Furious 7 is jumping a whole billion to likely 2B+. Even without piracy, the last FF movie, F6, probably would only have done some 500m+, talking about a 400% or $220m+ increase for a sequel.

To the point that F7 doing 2B+ is almost an established fact (although IMO we still need to be cautious and see how it plays in the next few days), we could come up with one thousand reasons why it exploded so much:

Extra awareness created by Paul’s tragedy death

Good will from the previous two entries

Stunning visual spectacles

Solid film quality and excellent WOM

Suffient marketing

No topnotch Hollywood style visualfeast and brainless popcorn blockbuster set in modern background in Chinese cinema since TF4 (GotG is original, Interstellar is more sci-fi drama, Hobbit is western fantasy——which is never the most popular genre in China, Cinderella and Kingsman both have limited audience appeal ...)

Widest release in China history——95000 shows per day, can you imagine that ? The former record was only around 60000, and no other film opening against F7. TF4 had Breakup Guru, which grabbed nearly 700m, to 'steal' its audience.

.......

.......

Currently, there can be as many as 150k shows per day. F7 is taking a 60~70% screening share, or 90k~100k shows, these days. Average number of seats per screen/screening in China is 140. This means——let's exclude some 10~15% morning shows and unfavorable shows in remote areas, at its peak, China could maintain 18 million theater audience on a dialy basis, as such, allowing F7's to draw 10.2 million admissions on its opening Sunday. This almost touched the physical extreme for a 60~70% super opener. (Surely no movie can take away every single screen in such a big country)

However, at the end of the day, unfortunately, every reason we could think of inevitably feels rather strengthless for such a RIDICULOUS performance. I am actually speachless about F7's run in China ... Box office experts can come up with any explanation they think that would make sense, but through the curtain, I can already feel their lack of confidence. What do experts really know ? What do we know ? With box office, you never know. When surprising phenomenal like F7 comes, the only thing you can do is sit, watch and get mindblowed.

There is one thing that I am certain, or precisely, more certain than ever though: the enormous potential of China's box office.

Maybe F7 is just a random excepetion, or maybe it's time to go bold and update our expectations for some future Hollywood releases in China, such as TA2 ---- 2B, JW ---- 1.5B, Termiator ---- 1B, MI5 ---- 1.5B .....

[A Marvel Fanboy]

dont think F7 run will get extended as there is no need. TA2 opens on its 31th day.