China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[A Marvel Fanboy]

It is always 100% guaranteed that the four biggest HW movies in China this year will be F7, TA2, JW and MI5. Everyone knows that.

 

What more interestingly is, how will the BIG FOUR rank ? It looks now that F7 has a great chance to best them all but anything could happen. Honestly, I dont even have a clue about how would they rank.

Edited April 30, 2015 by firedeep

[fmpro]

It is always 100% guaranteed that the four biggest HW movies in China this year will be F7, TA2, JW and MI5. Everyone knows that.

 

What more interestingly is, how will the BIG FOUR rank ? It looks now that F7 has a great chance to best them all but anything could happen. Honestly, I dont even have a clue about how would they rank.

Pretty sure its

FF7

TA2

JW

MI5

i think JW will fall short of TA2 due to heavy competition

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Pretty sure its

FF7

TA2

JW

MI5

i think JW will fall short of TA2 due to heavy competition

Very reasonable ranking, and in the sequence of release time. 

 

However, JW has a holiday in its 2nd weekend. Ignoring Insurgent (which is sure to flop), JW is also the last HW blockbuster playing into the summer, free competition of its HW fellows.

 

If MI5 gets July 31, it can take the great advantage of summer legs.

 

Advantages of each:

 

F7: already recordbreeaking gross, maybe close to 2400m.

TA2: no competition at all before June, nearly 20 days, ignoring kids flick Tomorrowland.

JW: holiday in its 2nd weekend, no HW movies competing

MI5: possible hot summer legs

Edited April 30, 2015 by firedeep

[Dementeleus]

Mad Max will be online only, no theatrical release.

 

[POTUS 2020]

For FF7, It looks like 2122m + 62m (+100%) + 62m + 43m = 2289m $369m by Sunday, $4m more than my $365m best scenario prediction last week. No Prisoner's $390m by Sunday is not even close, even a little more off than a failed predictor $351m (worst scenario) prediction.

 

Again, one last time, it was an observation of historical data proposing a  possible outcome. That's the fun of figuring out a run, not just assuming all will drop 75% and telling other people what to ignore it. You made a comment on my post all the while publishing a prediction of 30-25-18 for the weekend. you are now saying 62-62-43. Thats 100% more (or shall I say 100% wrong (yes you fail)) than your thoughtless prediction and you have the audacity to tell me to chill down? Get a clue. Then again....

 

 Honestly, I dont even have a clue about how would they rank.

Apparently you just did and the statement is genius, the fact that you are clueless. Most truthful thing I heard all week. Thank You

[Infernus]

Again, one last time, it was an observation of historical data proposing a possible outcome. That's the fun of figuring out a run, not just assuming all will drop 75% and telling other people what to ignore it. You made a comment on my post all the while publishing a prediction of 30-25-18 for the weekend. you are now saying 62-62-43. Thats 100% more (or shall I say 100% wrong (yes you fail)) than your thoughtless prediction and you have the audacity to tell me to chill down? Get a clue. Then again....

Apparently you just did and the statement is genius, the fact that you are clueless. Most truthful thing I heard all week. Thank You

Will you just stop No Prisoners? We all respect firedeep mich more than you. He is one of the most knowledgeable about this market and his predictions are the best, closest and most reasonable. And it was you who started the fight without any reason except for you just trying to shine out and seizing the opportunity to channel your jealousy for firedeep. He only, in a very friendly manner, said that your prediction seemed a little too off. He didn't even criticize you to the slightest for it even though it was indeed quite foolish. And you bited 'back' asking him to not think he is omnipotent and whatnot. Edited April 30, 2015 by Infernus

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Mad Max had problem passing the censoring, and WB probably assumed Mad Max (it's mostly a Western set in modern days) would not do much at CBO, which I tend to agree.

Edited April 30, 2015 by firedeep

[fmpro]

Very reasonable ranking, and in the sequence of release time. 

 

However, JW has a holiday in its 2nd weekend. Ignoring Insurgent (which is sure to flop), JW is also the last HW blockbuster playing into the summer, free competition of its HW fellows.

 

If MI5 gets July 31, it can take the great advantage of summer legs.

 

Advantages of each:

 

F7: already recordbreeaking gross, maybe close to 2400m.

TA2: no competition at all before June, nearly 20 days, ignoring kids flick Tomorrowland.

JW: holiday in its 2nd weekend, no HW movies competing

MI5: possible hot summer legs

It will be very interesting to follow.. Still cant see MI5 gossing more than 1B-1,2B and even if JW gets a holiday weekend won't other big local movie's open?

[picores]

No Mad Max? Fuck

[seduh]

great number for F7, i thought it would drop today because of loosing showtimes. 

[POTUS 2020]

Will you just stop No Prisoners? We all respect firedeep mich more than you. He is one of the most knowledgeable about this market and his predictions are the best, closest and most reasonable. And it was you who started the fight without any reason except for you just trying to shine out and seizing the opportunity to channel your jealousy for firedeep. He only, in a very friendly manner, said that your prediction seemed a little too off. He didn't even criticize you to the slightest for it even though it was indeed quite foolish. And you bited 'back' asking him to not think he is omnipotent and whatnot.

who invited you into this. I did not start it. I saw his 70% drops and made no initial comment. He initialized as you are now and there was nothing foolish about it. I pointed out there could be a bump and there is one, period. Jealousy? Please. Im retired at an early age from a profession of prediction. Are you? Is he?

 

I don't comment on other peoples posts of prediction as being too this or that. It is what it is. As for me I point out possibilities based on data. No one saw this bump coming. Its not the best case but its something I saw and its happening at a lower level, that's it. Don't need someone predicting so incorrectly a 75% drop that my commentary is way off  when his was ridiculously low. Its like someone who has cut off both hands teaching another how to use a table saw.

 

You ask me to stop? He brought it up again as I stayed silent and you bring it up now. Maybe you two can get a room and stop wasting MBps posting crap for a while and it will stop.

[Dementeleus]

Ease up, No Prisoners. No one's calling you out for your predictions. But this is all just fun and games. There's no need to go after Firedeep or anyone else.

[POTUS 2020]

Ease up, No Prisoners. No one's calling you out for your predictions. But this is all just fun and games. There's no need to go after Firedeep or anyone else.

Im not going after anyone. He wasn't right and neither was my "possibility". Its somewhere in the middle. FD brought it up again. I thought it was dead. But if wants spar, whatever I'm game.

[Dementeleus]

Im not going after anyone. He wasn't right and neither was my "possibility". Its somewhere in the middle. FD brought it up again. I thought it was dead. But if wants spar, whatever I'm game.

 

There's not going to be any sparring.

[Tower]

who invited you into this. I did not start it. I saw his 70% drops and made no initial comment. He initialized as you are now and there was nothing foolish about it. I pointed out there could be a bump and there is one, period. Jealousy? Please. Im retired at an early age from a profession of prediction. Are you? Is he?

 

I don't comment on other peoples posts of prediction as being too this or that. It is what it is. As for me I point out possibilities based on data. No one saw this bump coming. Its not the best case but its something I saw and its happening at a lower level, that's it. Don't need someone predicting so incorrectly a 75% drop that my commentary is way off  when his was ridiculously low. Its like someone who has cut off both hands teaching another how to use a table saw.

 

You ask me to stop? He brought it up again as I stayed silent and you bring it up now. Maybe you two can get a room and stop wasting MBps posting crap for a while and it will stop.

 

Mfantin/T E Lawrence, is that you? because there are a lot of similarities I'm seeing here.

[Cynosure]

Mfantin/T E Lawrence, is that you? because there are a lot of similarities I'm seeing here.

 

Edited April 30, 2015 by Cynosure

[marveldcfox]

Fantastic Four will release on August 7th in China WITHOUT 3D. Can firedeep or someone predict the boxoffice range of FF and where it will most likely land. Thanks

[keysersoze123]

No need to attack firedeep. His perspectives are good. Everyone is wrong. There is no science here. Firedeep/Olive are among the most connected to China BO.

 

That said F7 has surprised. Will make 375M+ may be as much as 385m. its run is absolutely sensational. I dont think anyone can any complaints. It would be a hard total to be beat this year unless some other film gets the perfect storm in getting the similar number of showtimes during 1st 2 weeks of the run.

[Lihongkim]

the reason i come here is the forum's title call "China Box Office". i did not know it just means to see how HW perform in China? Although it means that, at least Firedeep cover whole CBO (both Dom & Imports) . i'm really lazy to chick another sites, so i can get along with this.

 

i know nothing about CBO. but what i know is i have to respect all members' ideas. not bc i'm the new one here, but it's the term of diversity. Special thank to : 

 

Thursday(4/30/2015) estimates

#/Title: Daily(yuan)~Total(yuan)~Total($)

1.You Are My Sunshine: 63M~63M ~$10.1M including $2.2M Previews

2.Furious 7: 31.4M~2122M~$342.2M #1 all time grosser

3.Helios: 31.2M~31.2M~$5M

4.The Left Ear: 21.2M~302M~$48.7M

5.Home: 4.6M~65.6M~$10.6M

Incredible hold for F7, 400M usd?

 

always take ur golden time doing this...    

[POTUS 2020]

Mfantin/T E Lawrence, is that you? because there are a lot of similarities I'm seeing here.

You mean the one that looked at a little historical data and thought Frozen could bump 40-50% in its 8th weekend(GW), 40% above its OW? Crazy, insane, unrealistic....but it happened. Nott genius, it was a possibility lying in the data.