China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Why me ? This is not my tweet and i'm just saying the same thing as a lot of people on twitter and on BOT.

 

Why you, what? I said you're an absolutist and your comment "We can say goodbye to 2B" is just that. You've done it before (you recall the whole NWH thing I'm sure?). It's just something you do. 

[JustLurking]

6 minutes ago, Gkalaitza said:

Yeah my understanding is that Covid fear,uncertainty and surge are an all time high rn and thats whats making the biggest impact by far. But actually its likely that weekdays and legs will benifit from that. People are afraid of going in a closed space with 100+ people in full (restrictions included) capacity in the OW. But even if things arent better in the coming weeks covid wise , each screening will be much less packed and populated 6/10/15 days in so people will probably that didnt attent earlier due to that fear may be more likely to

Hopefully you're right. During height of covid here I avoided theaters regardless of whether the show had 20 people or 100, and I would do it even more so with how easy getting quarantined in china is. But maybe I am alone on that mindset.

[Flamengo81]

22 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

LPLC has a habit of dealing in absolutes but I wouldn't say it's "doomposting". If China comes in under $300M, that means DOM + OS-C-R would need $1.7B+ for $2B. Right now I'd say DOM is looking like $600-650M so we would still need good numbers in every other OS market to get over $2B. 

 

So it's definitely not close to "goodbye" 2B. It's only Thursday yet and there are many variables at the moment that makes this extremely hard to predict. Also the doomposting is not only because of that line, but because of the all negative comments in many threads...

[XXR vs XXR]

Just now, Flamengo81 said:

So it's definitely not close to "goodbye" 2B. It's only Thursday yet and there are many variables at the moment that makes this extremely hard to predict. Also the doomposting is not only because of that line, but because of the all negative comments in many threads...

Fair enough. A lot of people live and die by trends/presales on here since this is a numbers forum after all, and in nearly every location those numbers did not escalate as expected. Add in the fact that reception seems good but not great, and people are naturally going to adjust their expectations.

 

[Flamengo81]

2 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Fair enough. A lot of people live and die by trends/presales on here since this is a numbers forum after all, and in nearly every location those numbers did not escalate as expected. Add in the fact that reception seems good but not great, and people are naturally going to adjust their expectations.

 

It's completely within reason to adjust the expectations and almost everyone is doing that. But being overtly negative to the point that it seems like wanting the movie to fail (just an impression) is not the same thing. I can definitely understand saying that 2B is no longer secured, but to say goodbye to it is a huge reach IMO.

[interiorgatordecorator]

47 minutes ago, LPLC said:

 

We can say goodbye to the $2B

 

lackluster reception?

[Flamengo81]

We have to take into account the World Cup, Covid situation, the extremely backloaded nature of sales and a lot of factors that make this a lot more difficult to predict than normal. So I would not work with absolutes in the slighest at least until we see the legs...

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Flamengo81 said:

It's completely within reason to adjust the expectations and almost everyone is doing that. But being overtly negative to the point that it seems like wanting the movie to fail (just an impression) is not the same thing. I can definitely understand saying that 2B is no longer secured, but to say goodbye to it is a huge reach IMO.

 

I agree with this. I definitely think 2B can still happen. There are a lot of variables up in the air right now that we won't really be clear for at least 2 weeks. Is DOM going to do 600 or 700? Is China going to do 275 or 375? That's a 200M (or more) swing from just two territories. 

[Issac Newton]

Outside JWD, was there any Importer film earning $100M in 2022 Mainland China? 

 

No, but still Avatar 2 earning $124M (projected) OW is still a great achievement!! Let's leave the remaining to WOM!! Okay!!??

[Borobudur]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

Outside JWD, was there any Importer film earning $100M in 2022 Mainland China? 

 

No, but still Avatar 2 earning $124M (projected) OW is still a great achievement!! Let's leave the remaining to WOM!! Okay!!??

The problem is I don't think that $124m is within reach with that slow growth in PS. 

[NCsoft]

I'd argue the China range is still pretty wide at $250M - $500M, just because while there's definitely a more pessimistic outlook, but there is  also a (albeit optimistic) scenario where as people get more used to Covid, and the fear subsides, as we go into Christmas, New Year, and then maybe get an extension to get at least some showings during CNY (due to light slate this year), suddenly we're looking at a very persistent stream of box office coming in for a long time, with large amount of showing and limited competition ( at least for the first 4-5 weeks or so). 

 

This current time is such a peculiar situation it's hard to make conclusions. 

Edited December 15, 2022 by NCsoft

[Flamengo81]

5 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

I agree with this. I definitely think 2B can still happen. There are a lot of variables up in the air right now that we won't really be clear for at least 2 weeks. Is DOM going to do 600 or 700? Is China going to do 275 or 375? That's a 200M (or more) swing from just two territories. 

Also the other major markets that could do incredible numbers with legs and together make a huge difference. Here in Brazil, for example, the WOM from the early shows seems extremely positive and it could explode here, so that is potentially 50-60M and it could be the case for other relevant markets as well. We have to wait for the Christmas to make more absolute predictions IMO.

[JustLurking]

Just now, Flamengo81 said:

Also the other major markets that could do incredible numbers with legs and together make a huge difference. Here in Brazil, for example, the WOM from the early shows seems extremely positive and it could explode here, so that is potentially 50-60M and it could be the case for other relevant markets as well. We have to wait for the Christmas to make more absolute predictions IMO.

Most people are still waiting to see if legs will kick in before saying 2b won't happen. I brought in the possibility myself this morning already and even then I am still waiting for legs. Peeps know it is still possible. It is also important to understand it might be hard right now.

 

Granted, A2 basically came out at the worst possible time for BO. Terrible ERs+lockdown China+gas crisis+loss of russia make for a very bad combination (this would've made well stronger business just a year ago). Missing 2b would be disappointing if it happens but not, like, tragic.

[stephanos13]

4 minutes ago, NCsoft said:

I'd argue the China range is still pretty wide at $250M - $500M, just because while there's definitely a more pessimistic outlook, but there is  also a (albeit optimistic) scenario where as people get more used to Covid, and the fear subsides, as we go into Christmas, New Year, and then maybe get an extension to get at least some showings during CNY (due to light slate this year), suddenly we're looking at a very persistent stream of box office coming in for a long time, with large amount of showing and limited competition ( at least for the first 4-5 weeks or so). 

 

This current time is such a peculiar situation it's hard to make conclusions. 

 

I agree with this reasoning in China. They know if they get Covid they would have to isolate and miss the New Years holidays. Unfortunately in China it seems is December 2020 and not December 2022.

[Borobudur]

Just now, stephanos13 said:

 

I agree with this reasoning in China. They know if they get Covid they would have to isolate and miss the New Years holidays. Unfortunately in China it seems is December 2020 and not December 2022.

I am curious to see how walk-ups play out here as many need to present negative testing result in order to enter cinema. Given the uncertainty, people will wait until last moment to decide if they are ok to go. 

[NCsoft]

6 minutes ago, stephanos13 said:

 

I agree with this reasoning in China. They know if they get Covid they would have to isolate and miss the New Years holidays. Unfortunately in China it seems is December 2020 and not December 2022.

 

Although it's like almost 2023, their current mentality toward Covid is about at the stage of summer 2020 in North America I'd say, probably worse even. With time, the mental adjustment toward "coexisting with Covid" will happen, but unclear if that comes fast enough that A2 would reap any benefit.

 

Edited December 15, 2022 by NCsoft

[LPLC]

41 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Why you, what? I said you're an absolutist and your comment "We can say goodbye to 2B" is just that. You've done it before (you recall the whole NWH thing I'm sure?). It's just something you do. 

Why are you quoting me ? I didn't ask you for anything. And yes I remember very well NWH I said that it will not be released in China and that it will not exceed $2B and I was right. I'm not pessimistic but just realistic as I had been for NWH I hope the best for A2 but sometimes you just have to face reality even if it's not fun.

[LPLC]

19 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Granted, A2 basically came out at the worst possible time for BO. Terrible ERs+lockdown China+gas crisis+loss of russia make for a very bad combination (this would've made well stronger business just a year ago). Missing 2b would be disappointing if it happens but not, like, tragic.

True and we can also talk about the calendar but apparently saying that can lead to negative reactions when it's just the reality

[XXR vs XXR]

14 minutes ago, LPLC said:

Why are you quoting me ?

 

Because you made a post?? Flamingo responded to you saying "We can say goodbye to 2B". I responded to Flamingo. Then you responded to me. I don't see how this is difficult for you to follow?

 

[LPLC]

3 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Because you made a post?? Flamingo responded to you saying "We can say goodbye to 2B". I responded to Flamingo. Then you responded to me. I don't see how this is difficult for you to follow?

 

Yes but why do you piss me off every time ? leave me alone I didn't ask you for anything, I have the right to say what I want and I will do without your negative comments. 

Edited December 15, 2022 by LPLC