China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[fastclock]

So, with about $12.4M OD, and about $50M weekend, how far will TJB go?

$120-150M?

Will 1B yuan be achievable? 

[Olive]

Sunday Est:
TJB 107M/319M
LHF 17.1M/296M
Zootopia 5.7M/1530M
American Ultra 3.85M/13.1m
 

[fmpro]

Very very good for TJB

[seduh]

Great OW for TJ. NIce finish for Zootopia, a amazing run for an amazing film

[POTUS 2020]

10 hours ago, MinaTakla said:

Forbes on TJB in China

I think it's a bit exaggerated though:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain/2016/04/15/disneys-jungle-book-swings-in-china-to-12-million-opening-day-250-better-than-zootopia/#28a84b075c31

He's reaching there with the multiples with competition ahead . Need to see mon-tues numbers to determine wom and potential multis. 

[Olive]

Monday est:

The Jungle Book 36M/355M

[seduh]

great hold for a family film

[Mojoguy]

Doesn't China LOVE talking animal films (Dreamworks)?

The Jungle Book should be perfect for them.

[jiangsen]

Tuesday Estimates

The Jungle Book ￥34.3M/￥390M (-7% from Monday)

London Has Fallen ￥6.45M/￥308M

Batman v Superman ￥0.25M/￥618.38M

Edited April 19, 2016 by jiangsen

[jiangsen]

This forum has been dead since No Prisoners v Firedeep: Dawn of Hurt Feelings.

 

Come on people!

[fastclock]

Well, TJB is going to be fine, but it will probably be less than Zoot.

Will it reach 1B yuan or more?

This is where we are missing the Firedeep's knowledge on how a movie would behave on its run.

[POTUS 2020]

7 hours ago, fastclock said:

Well, TJB is going to be fine, but it will probably be less than Zoot.

Will it reach 1B yuan or more?

This is where we are missing the Firedeep's knowledge on how a movie would behave on its run.

Oh please. He had knowledge on films coming out. He wasn't good at projecting out. I've missed a few but also nailed quite a few. I can admit when I'm wrong. He's infallible on his own mind.

With a -7% hold I would say it could hold  -35-40% this weekend, but it will have screen loss with 3 new releases coning. -50% probable for a 160m~ weekend. 615m total. 

65m next midweek . 680m

The following weekend is may day holiday. Tricky weekend. FD had FF7 dropping 75%, I was calling for a flat weekend and we argued, it was down 27%. Somehow I was wrong and he wasnt. Joke. Anyway, the previous year had 2 HLWD movies bumped 10-20%. So, depending on competition and show count it could hold very well based on this mon-tues hold. I'll go with -30%. 100m. (Could be flat to -50%. ) 780m~total. 

Olive, is Friday or Monday a holiday that weekend?

It should be in the low 800s when CA2 opens. Two movies can coexist. Another tough call.

For now I'd say 850m-900m. Could be 1B+ if it holds -40% this weekend, if the may day bump is big and if it could still do some business against CA3

 

 

 

 

[Olive]

Fuck, TJB loses many screens on Friday.

[jiangsen]

Wednesday Estimates

The Jungle Book ￥30.2M/￥420M (-11% from Tuesday)

London Has Fallen ￥6.15M/￥315M

[seduh]

Good numbers for TJB, I hope it can make  over $125 in China

[fastclock]

14 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Oh please. He had knowledge on films coming out. He wasn't good at projecting out. I've missed a few but also nailed quite a few. I can admit when I'm wrong. He's infallible on his own mind.

With a -7% hold I would say it could hold  -35-40% this weekend, but it will have screen loss with 3 new releases coning. -50% probable for a 160m~ weekend. 615m total. 

65m next midweek . 680m

The following weekend is may day holiday. Tricky weekend. FD had FF7 dropping 75%, I was calling for a flat weekend and we argued, it was down 27%. Somehow I was wrong and he wasnt. Joke. Anyway, the previous year had 2 HLWD movies bumped 10-20%. So, depending on competition and show count it could hold very well based on this mon-tues hold. I'll go with -30%. 100m. (Could be flat to -50%. ) 780m~total. 

Olive, is Friday or Monday a holiday that weekend?

It should be in the low 800s when CA2 opens. Two movies can coexist. Another tough call.

For now I'd say 850m-900m. Could be 1B+ if it holds -40% this weekend, if the may day bump is big and if it could still do some business against CA3

 

 

 

 

 

In general, the more voices available, the better is the prediction. And any prediction can become wrong, so not going to blame anyone if the prediction is askew. 

 

TJB will really have a tough time to get to $1B USD, if it can't even get to 1B yuan.

[Olive]

Huntsman presales are so low, less than 100M OW, and next weekend will be killed by local movies.

[POTUS 2020]

9 hours ago, fastclock said:

 

In general, the more voices available, the better is the prediction. And any prediction can become wrong, so not going to blame anyone if the prediction is askew. 

 

TJB will really have a tough time to get to $1B USD, if it can't even get to 1B yuan.

His choice to leave. More than one POV is fine. He shouldn't comment on other people's post if he can't take the reply. I've seen much worse battles in numerous threads, people get over it or put on ignore.

 

$1B WW will be tough put possible. Need to see OS holds this weekend. It's looking like high 700s with current markets for now. Japan and Korea are the remaining large markets and could be worth up to $100m if it takes off. It will open in  Japan in August, hopefully just before Obon. 

 

TJB is going to lose just 1/3 of its shows this weekend and the new releases are looking to do less than 70m combined OD. A -40-45% hold looking good. 

 

there will be just one large opener next week. ¥1B looking better already

 

The month is on track to be down close to ¥1B

 

 

Edited April 21, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Olive]

Month-to-date gross has dropped 31%, horrifying drop!

 

The Revenant closed its run with 377M yuan($58M)

 

Friday Showtimes:

Yesterday Once More 26%

Huntsman  22.2%

The Jungle Book  20.6%

[Agafin]

2 hours ago, Olive said:

Month-to-date gross has dropped 31%, horrifying drop!

 

If I may ask, how does it compare to April 2014 so far? 2015 had like 2 billion yuan from Furious 7 so I guess that's the main reason for the drop. This makes me think that this year will have a sub 20% bump.