China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[efialtes76]

4 minutes ago, Clear Sky Master said:

The Wandering Earth 2 is picking up steam. Can’t believe some people here actually thought that the sequel was going to flop and that Avatar 2 would retake its premium screens once the CNY holidays over. Or to be precise, hoping that TWE2 would fail to live up to expectations so that Avatar 2 could regain its showings. 

 

Against these domestic blockbusters, Avatar brand simply can’t compete. 

You're a "little" obsessed with Avatar...

[Sophia Jane]

47 minutes ago, Clear Sky Master said:

The Wandering Earth 2 is picking up steam. Can’t believe some people here actually thought that the sequel was going to flop and that Avatar 2 would retake its premium screens once the CNY holidays over. Or to be precise, hoping that TWE2 would fail to live up to expectations so that Avatar 2 could regain its showings. 

 

Against these domestic blockbusters, Avatar brand simply can’t compete. 

Nope,Avatar release in the Covid-era.

TWE release in the era which most people already get covid.

[titanic2187]

57 minutes ago, Clear Sky Master said:

The Wandering Earth 2 is picking up steam. Can’t believe some people here actually thought that the sequel was going to flop and that Avatar 2 would retake its premium screens once the CNY holidays over. Or to be precise, hoping that TWE2 would fail to live up to expectations so that Avatar 2 could regain its showings. 

 

Against these domestic blockbusters, Avatar brand simply can’t compete. 

The first Avatar basically kick off exponential growth of China BO and managed to stay at all time number 1 for 4 years in this fast-growing market. Even a local megahit like Wolf Warrior 2 got kicked out from number 1 by Lake after 4 years too. 

 

Also Avatar 2 was released during peak-of Covid when every business involve public gathering such as dine in and tourism were at their low point. Things changed fast after a month when people just get along with the virus and realise they can actually,be like other countries.  

Edited February 4, 2023 by titanic2187

[Clear Sky Master]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

The first Avatar basically kick off exponential growth of China BO and managed to stay at all time number 1 for 4 years in this fast-growing market. Even a local megahit like Wolf Warrior 2 got kicked out from number 1 by Lake after 4 years too. 

 

Also Avatar 2 was released during peak-of Covid when every business involve public gathering such as dine in and tourism were at their low point. Things changed fast after a month when people just get along with the virus and realise they can actually,be like other countries.  

Surely if that was the case, why didn’t Avatar 2 China box office numbers blow up in January? Surely, if Avatar 2 was such a crowd puller as some people here made it out here to be, it would have drawn a large audience once Covid died down in China. 
 

Even if Avatar 2 were to open side by side with The Wandering Earth 2 or any other local big blockbuster for that matter, it would be left in the dust. This is a fact. To actually think Avatar 2 was going to dethrone TWE2 as box office king is just laughable imo. 
 

 

[Sophia Jane]

2 minutes ago, Clear Sky Master said:

Surely if that was the case, why didn’t Avatar 2 China box office numbers blow up in January? Surely, if Avatar 2 was such a crowd puller as some people here made it out here to be, it would have drawn a large audience once Covid died down in China. 
 

Even if Avatar 2 were to open side by side with The Wandering Earth 2 or any other local big blockbuster for that matter, it would be left in the dust. This is a fact. To actually think Avatar 2 was going to dethrone TWE2 as box office king is just laughable imo. 
 

 

Because in January Avatar didn’t have shows.

Actaully TWE2 box office in China is not that good,AEG is higher than this one and without COVID Avatar will challenge AEG here.

Edited February 4, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[Clear Sky Master]

2 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

Because in January Avatar didn’t have shows.

Actaully TWE2 box office in China is not that good,AEG is higher than this one and without COVID Avatar will challenge AEG here.

I believe Avatar 2 had the Chinese theatres all to itself between mid December and end of January. I don’t understand why you are claiming Avatar 2 lacked showings in January. 
 

Also if TWE2 box office in China ain’t that good then Avatar 2 numbers must be atrocious then. $250 million finish is even below DC Aquaman. 

[Sophia Jane]

3 minutes ago, Clear Sky Master said:

I believe Avatar 2 had the Chinese theatres all to itself between mid December and end of January. I don’t understand why you are claiming Avatar 2 lacked showings in January. 
 

Also if TWE2 box office in China ain’t that good then Avatar 2 numbers must be atrocious then. $250 million finish is even below DC Aquaman. 

Avatar 1 is highest grossing film in China back the time,and Avatar’s shows on TV recently have 1% audience rate,this IP is insane popular

Avatar’s shows was cut down in Spring festival,and it’s most important OW is effect by COVID(China is not the leggy market),without COVID Avatar easily got 3B

If you don’t believe,Avatar 3 will tell you something.

Edited February 4, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[titanic2187]

8 minutes ago, Clear Sky Master said:

Surely if that was the case, why didn’t Avatar 2 China box office numbers blow up in January? Surely, if Avatar 2 was such a crowd puller as some people here made it out here to be, it would have drawn a large audience once Covid died down in China. 
 

Even if Avatar 2 were to open side by side with The Wandering Earth 2 or any other local big blockbuster for that matter, it would be left in the dust. This is a fact. To actually think Avatar 2 was going to dethrone TWE2 as box office king is just laughable imo. 
 

 

Because in BO world, once your OW is dent, that is it, the good legs can only remedy but not reverse the course.  Very rare I see legs completely reverse the course of a movie run. The only example I can think of is Zootopia, Coco and Dangal in China. Nezha, and Hi Mom are insane leg hit but let's not pretend their OW isn't big.

 

In the case of Avatar 2, the Covid-19 damage to OW is already done. This is just how BO works. OW matters the most.  You can gross $100m OW and hit only 2x legs yet that alone will give $200m finish total but a movie opened to $30m, even a great 5x legs will only still generate $150m.  

 

 

[Clear Sky Master]

3 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Because in BO world, once your OW is dent, that is it, the good legs can only remedy but not reverse the course.  Very rare I see legs completely reverse the course of a movie run. The only example I can think of is Zootopia, Coco and Dangal in China. Nezha, and Hi Mom are insane leg hit but let's not pretend their OW isn't big.

 

In the case of Avatar 2, the Covid-19 damage to OW is already done. This is just how BO works. OW matters the most.  You can gross $100m OW and hit only 2x legs yet that alone will give $200m finish total but a movie opened to $30m, even a great 5x legs will only still generate $150m.  

 

 

but earlier you claimed Covid was the primary reason for Avatar’s poor performance in China. So, if Covid died down in January why didn’t Avatar’s numbers blow up?

 

Surely, if Covid was the main reason behind the low turnout, then as logic dictates, numbers would have picked up significantly once Covid wasn’t such a factor. Avatar’s numbers never really picked up meaning Avatar ain’t really popular as people here made it out to be. Where did all those Chinese Avatar fanatics we have been hearing about go to?

[titanic2187]

2 minutes ago, Clear Sky Master said:

but earlier you claimed Covid was the primary reason for Avatar’s poor performance in China. So, if Covid died down in January why didn’t Avatar’s numbers blow up?

 

Surely, if Covid was the main reason behind the low turnout, then as logic dictates, numbers would have picked up significantly once Covid wasn’t such a factor. Avatar’s numbers never really picked up meaning Avatar ain’t really popular as people here made it out to be. Where did all those Chinese Avatar fanatics we have been hearing about go to?

I think I already make myself very clear. The Covid-19 hit OW and that is it. Covid-19 go away or not in January it doesn't matter, the damage is done because the buzz never take shape properly from the beginning especially during first 3 weeks when the buzz around the world was the peak. 

 

Going by how A2 perform in HK, Taiwan and entire SE Asia. there is no way A2 won't make at least $400m in normal circumstances. 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

47 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Going by how A2 perform in HK, Taiwan and entire SE Asia. there is no way A2 won't make at least $400m in normal circumstances. 

 

Agreed. Looking across comparable Asian markets and what A2 did vs Endgame, I'd estimate it would have done 60-70M admissions in China if everything was full and open from OD (EG did about 85-88M). Not sure what the ATP difference is but that's probably $500-550M for A2. 

[Clear Sky Master]

2 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

I think I already make myself very clear. The Covid-19 hit OW and that is it. Covid-19 go away or not in January it doesn't matter, the damage is done because the buzz never take shape properly from the beginning especially during first 3 weeks when the buzz around the world was the peak. 

 

Going by how A2 perform in HK, Taiwan and entire SE Asia. there is no way A2 won't make at least $400m in normal circumstances. 

 

Here’s something you simply do not want to accept: if Avatar was popular in China as you claim it was then people would have showed up in large droves when the government rescinded zero Covid policies or when the Covid panic finally died down. That is an undeniable fact. 
 

That never happened meaning Chinese folks treat Avatar just like another regular foreign movie. It’s nothing special in China. Oh and just because Avatar 2 made money in other East Asian territories and countries means nothing tbh. 

[Sophia Jane]

24 minutes ago, Clear Sky Master said:

Here’s something you simply do not want to accept: if Avatar was popular in China as you claim it was then people would have showed up in large droves when the government rescinded zero Covid policies or when the Covid panic finally died down. That is an undeniable fact. 
 

That never happened meaning Chinese folks treat Avatar just like another regular foreign movie. It’s nothing special in China. Oh and just because Avatar 2 made money in other East Asian territories and countries means nothing tbh. 

You still don’t get it,When Covid effect is nearly passed,Avatar have no shows because the shows are given to the local film,if Avatar have enough shows on Spring Festival it will pass 3B

Actually I am Chinese,Avatar is really popular in China and if you going to street ask 10 person “Do you know the movie called Avatar”I reckon 9 of them will say “Oh sure Of course I’ve heard of that”,Avatar is the well-known movie which everybody know in China,and for popularity,the first movie shows on TV recently and got over 1% audiance rate,for comps,AEG have 0.78% when it first show on TV,The Wandering Earth have 1% and Wolf Warrior 2 have around 2%

Edited February 4, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[Sophia Jane]

Some people never realize How popular is James Cameron in China…China probably the only place in the world called him “Cameron the God”(卡神）,I reckon even his homeland Canada won’t called him “The God”,he is symbol of Hollywood here.

Edited February 4, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[Legion Again]

Just wait for A3 😛

[Clear Sky Master]

31 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

You still don’t get it,When Covid effect is nearly passed,Avatar have no shows because the shows are given to the local film,if Avatar have enough shows on Spring Festival it will pass 3B

Actually I am Chinese,Avatar is really popular in China and if you going to street ask 10 person “Do you know the movie called Avatar”I reckon 9 of them will say “Oh sure Of course I’ve heard of that”,Avatar is the well-known movie which everybody know in China,and for popularity,the first movie shows on TV recently and got over 1% audiance rate,for comps,AEG have 0.78% when it first show on TV,The Wandering Earth have 1% and Wolf Warrior 2 have around 2%

Avatar 2 had the theatres all to itself on Christmas and New Year’s holidays in China. Also, most of January the movie had no competition whatsoever and still couldn’t even surpass DC Aquaman box office record in China. 
 

What makes you think Avatar 2 could compete with The Wandering Earth 2 and Full River Red on CNY?

 

20 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

Some people never realize How popular is James Cameron in China…China probably the only place in the world called him “Cameron the God”(卡神）,I reckon even his homeland Canada won’t called him “The God”,he is symbol of Hollywood here.

if people in China worship James Cameron that much why didn’t they go see his movie? China government rescinded zero Covid restrictions well before Avatar 2 was in theatres.
 

And please do not give me that Covid excuse, Chinese people were out in full force celebrating New Year’s Eve on December 31. Streets in tier 1 cities were literally packed with large crowds. 

[Sophia Jane]

Just now, Clear Sky Master said:

Avatar 2 had the theatres all to itself on Christmas and New Year’s holidays in China. Also, most of January the movie had no competition whatsoever and still couldn’t even surpass DC Aquaman box office record in China. 
 

What makes you think Avatar 2 could compete with The Wandering Earth 2 and Full River Red on CNY?

 

if people in China worship James Cameron that much why didn’t they go see his movie? China government rescinded zero Covid restrictions well before Avatar 2 was in theatres.
 

And please do not give me that Covid excuse, Chinese people were out in full force celebrating New Year’s Eve on December 31. Streets in tier 1 cities were literally packed with large crowds. 

Because Avatar released in China when 40m people getting covid per day

Avatar don’t have enough show when Covid died down

Is that so hard to understand?

[XXR vs XXR]

MODERATION 

 

This isn't the Covid thread. Lets move on from this pointless thought experiment. 

[Clear Sky Master]

1 hour ago, Sophia Jane said:

Because Avatar released in China when 40m people getting covid per day

Avatar don’t have enough show when Covid died down

Is that so hard to understand?

Well because what you’re saying doesn’t match reality. You keep on going about how Avatar is so popular and how James Cameron is regarded as a deity in China and yet when all is said and done Avatar 2 is only going to finish number 40 on the highest grossing movies of all time list in China. That doesn’t make sense whatsoever. 

Edited February 5, 2023 by Clear Sky Master

[thajdikt]

10 hours ago, Sophia Jane said:

Antman likely $60-80m I thought..

Anything close to this would be great for Ant-Man. Is this assuming wom being bad or good?