Estimated Wknd Numbers - BD2(141.3M) Skyfall(41.5M) Lincoln(21M)

[fishstick]

Ha,ha, those $135 mio estimates were ridiculous lack of calculating skill. I said it`ll do over $140 mio, maybe even reach NM`s $142 mio. Now lets put Nikki reed`s career out of misery and save the wordl of cinema from that cienamitc abortion!Have no time to check old posts but how badly AK did? Friday PTA was pathetic.

[Gopher]

The success of the wide-release adult films (Lincoln, Skyfall, Flight, Argo) have hurt the limited market. AK is another victim. Mixed reviews didn't help either- it's definitely a love-it-or-hate-it movie.

[TLK]

I think SLP and AK did well. SLP 450k and AK 315k from 16 theaters each is not bad when you consider the competition they had to face.

[fmpro]

This thread needs to die..Like a lot

[Rthmessiah]

Well, RTH was wrong twice in this thread. He gave us a 63-65 number on Friday and a 44-46 on Saturday....causing this place to explode both times.....lol......God bless RTH though....we need you buddy.It's funny reading all the stuff from people saying this would make 125 mill OW with the 9pm friday projections.

RTH was as wrong as every other early prediction, he only can project by comparing to similar movies and BD obviously had some unexpected developmets over the day and he reacted after he recognized it, so nothing wrong with that.And also nothing funny about those 125m projections, as those would have been spot on. That's what we do here with early estimates, don't we? We only can work with those numbers we were given.

Thanks Poseidon, in brief I've been doing the whole thing from mobile phone pen & padand yeah with BD2 early friday 63-65 little later revised to 68-70 of which since official est have changed twice and will change again with actuals, sat 44-46 got revised to 40-42(or 41-42 can't remember),Skyfall btw was pretty much on the money,Especially when opening numbers so high however an estimate is worked out based on some actual data available being out even just 1% or a few % thinking something is 41.5 vs .42.5 or 45 vs 48 % can throwyou off millions of $ and if its during daytime its east coast vs west etc (u have to use a lot of comparison data to aid)

[fmpro]

Thanks Poseidon, in brief I've been doing the whole thing from mobile phone pen & padand yeah with BD2 early friday 63-65 little later revised to 68-70 of which since official est have changed twice and will change again with actuals, sat 44-46 got revised to 40-42(or 41-42 can't remember),Skyfall btw was pretty much on the money,Especially when opening numbers so high however an estimate is worked out based on some actual data available being out even just 1% or a few % thinking something is 41.5 vs .42.5 or 45 vs 48 % can throwyou off millions of $ and if its during daytime its east coast vs west etc (u have to use a lot of comparison data to aid)

You don´t have to explain yourself here Rth.You have proven your worth for a lifetime here.Just keep those numbers comming

[TLK]

Yep, most people understand that the projections are made on the basis of incomplete data.

[tonytr87]

I think SLP and AK did well. SLP 450k and AK 315k from 16 theaters each is not bad when you consider the competition they had to face.

Movies like SLP and Zero Dark Thirty shouldn't have platform releases. Both have had decent marketing and both have enough appeal to open wide.

[John Marston]

Movies like SLP and Zero Dark Thirty shouldn't have platform releases. Both have had decent marketing and both have enough appeal to open wide.

don't about Zero Dark Thirty but I agree about SLP

[baumer]

Thanks Poseidon, in brief I've been doing the whole thing from mobile phone pen & padand yeah with BD2 early friday 63-65 little later revised to 68-70 of which since official est have changed twice and will change again with actuals, sat 44-46 got revised to 40-42(or 41-42 can't remember),Skyfall btw was pretty much on the money,Especially when opening numbers so high however an estimate is worked out based on some actual data available being out even just 1% or a few % thinking something is 41.5 vs .42.5 or 45 vs 48 % can throwyou off millions of $ and if its during daytime its east coast vs west etc (u have to use a lot of comparison data to aid)

Rth I wasnt criticizing u, i lionize u buddy. Youre the man. All i meant is that u gave us a heart attck twice. But youre a deity here. I meant no disrespect.

[TLK]

Movies like SLP and Zero Dark Thirty shouldn't have platform releases. Both have had decent marketing and both have enough appeal to open wide.

I agree with you but SLP wasn't supposed to be a platform release. It was a last minute decision.

[Gopher]

RTH, your projections for Skyfall and BD2 both went down from your initial numbers. Is there a way to anticipate what the final number will be by looking at where the film is doing better than others? Or does it just come down to time zone differences?

[iceroll]

Rth I wasnt criticizing u, i lionize u buddy. Youre the man. All i meant is that u gave us a heart attck twice. But youre a deity here. I meant no disrespect.

[DAR]

We box office nuts just love jumping the gun!

Truer words have never been spoken

[rainbowtrout]

Just got back from the 2:35 showing of BD2. The place was about 95% full, which is amazing since the Packers game was on at the time and theaters in SE Wisconsin are always slow on Packers game days. The 3:45 showing was sold out, btw.THAT is how you wrap up a series. The final battle was exciting and decently shot and you never knew who would live or die. And the "twist" was greeted with cheers and laughs (in a good way). I went into another theater after my showing ended and saw the battle and that crowd reacted the same way. There was applause at the end and everyone stayed to watch the nice credits sequence. I could easily see this having good repeat business and late legs, much like Eclipse did.I think Eclipse is still the best overall film, but that final half-hour or so of BD2 is the highlight of the entire series. And the Michael Sheen laugh/cackle was a great scenery-chewing moment.

Edited November 18, 2012 by rainbowtrout

[#ED]

That same reaction happened in my theater as well!

[sky]

Thanks Poseidon, in brief I've been doing the whole thing from mobile phone pen & padand yeah with BD2 early friday 63-65 little later revised to 68-70 of which since official est have changed twice and will change again with actuals, sat 44-46 got revised to 40-42(or 41-42 can't remember),Skyfall btw was pretty much on the money,Especially when opening numbers so high however an estimate is worked out based on some actual data available being out even just 1% or a few % thinking something is 41.5 vs .42.5 or 45 vs 48 % can throwyou off millions of $ and if its during daytime its east coast vs west etc (u have to use a lot of comparison data to aid)

Hello Rth,I'm new to this Forum and have only followed this box office type thread for a few weeks.My question is: Where do the numbers come from that you use to calculate your projections?Thank you. Edited November 18, 2012 by sky

[Ball Lightning]

Hello Rth,I'm new to this Forum and have only followed this box office type thread for a few weeks.My question is: Where do the numbers come from that you use to calculate your projections?Thank you.

Ignore this post I was wrong! Edited November 19, 2012 by Ball Lightning

[Rthmessiah]

He works for rentrak.

hah no I don't, especially considering I've blasted them a few times and they take note Edited November 19, 2012 by Rth

[Master Scottb]

Movies like SLP and Zero Dark Thirty shouldn't have platform releases. Both have had decent marketing and both have enough appeal to open wide.

Yeah but would either of them have the legs to stay relevant at the box office into January, February, or March so they could capitalize on the awards/nominations buzz if they opened with a regular wide release?