Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[Noctis]

I'm Bella. The Hobbit is Hermione.

[#ED]

This needs 45M today to get to 100M. Still possible.

[#ED]

There's a thread already.

[baumer]

40 mill translates into 115? Ummmm nope. If it does 40 today, that includes 13 mill from midnights. Even if it were to go up by 15% Saturday (without midnights) that's about 32 mill. Then a 20% drop gives it 25 mill Sunday. That's about 97 mill. So if it does 40 mill, most I see is 105. But more than likely it will be under 100 mill.

[Noctis]

Nikki estimates $38m-$40m.Her estimates carry no weight with me, but if that's true...

[#ED]

Deadline reporting a 115M+ weekend. That would be great.

[baumer]

There's a thread already.

There's a midnight thread.....not a weekend thread....but I see your point, I'll combine them.

[Lumos]

If this film were to follow the same trajectory as Twilight or DH2, then yes, this number would be horrendous and would be the flop of the year. Buttt....anyone with a shred of common sense would know that an OW of 110M is still VERY attainable...and so is a DOM gross of 400M. Some of the haters are really taking this 'non record' breaking midnight start as an omen for a terrible box office run...when in reality it's fine and puts it on track for an amazing run. The number is only disappointing when you compare it to other films....but all the comparisons people have made don't make any sense.

[The Futurist]

NOT A RECORD.

[Poseidon]

Funniest part of Nikkis article : The 115m+ projection after that OD. Hilarious.Still, 90m would be a good opening, holidays are still to come.

[spizzer]

Nikki's estimate at 6PM EST means nothing whatsoever.

[The Futurist]

Nikki is ill.

[Noctis]

Yes, it clearly makes no sense to compare TH1 to RoTK, right? It make no sense to make the informed claim that TH1 managed to only sell the same amount of tickets as RoTK despite being in a lot more theaters and in a far more front-loaded box office climate.

[baumer]

If this film were to follow the same trajectory as Twilight or DH2, then yes, this number would be horrendous and would be the flop of the year. Buttt....anyone with a shred of common sense would know that an OW of 110M is still VERY attainable...and so is a DOM gross of 400M. Some of the haters are really taking this 'non record' breaking midnight start as an omen for a terrible box office run...when in reality it's fine and puts it on track for an amazing run. The number is only disappointing when you compare it to other films....but all the comparisons people have made don't make any sense.

I'm not hating, but you're forgetting that a 40 mill Friday is including a 13 mill midnight. That's a 27 mill Friday. Give it a massive bump on Saturday (without midnights) of 25% and you still only have 33.5 mill. That's maybe enough to get it to 100 mill, but not much more.

[baumer]

Yes, it clearly makes no sense to compare TH1 to RoTK, right? It make no sense to make the informed claim that TH1 managed to only sell the same amount of tickets as RoTK despite being in a lot more theaters and in a far more front-loaded box office climate.

Plus IMAX, IMAX 3D, regular 3D.

[Hatebox]

Under 100m would be bad. I know this site's expectations can be ridiculous, but c'mon.

[Lumos]

Yes, it clearly makes no sense to compare TH1 to RoTK, right? It make no sense to make the informed claim that TH1 managed to only sell the same amount of tickets as RoTK despite being in a lot more theaters and in a far more front-loaded box office climate.

This isn't LotR 4. It's been ten years since ROTK came out.....why would the fans all flock to see this the minute it comes out? People will see this, but the gross will be spread out through the Christmas season.....

[CJohn]

"Today’s take could be $38M-$40M with the weekend $115+M."

[Lumos]

I'm not hating, but you're forgetting that a 40 mill Friday is including a 13 mill midnight. That's a 27 mill Friday. Give it a massive bump on Saturday (without midnights) of 25% and you still only have 33.5 mill. That's maybe enough to get it to 100 mill, but not much more.

Nikki has no credibility and I still see an OD of more than 45M....

[The Futurist]

This isn't LotR 4. It's been ten years since ROTK came out.....why would the fans all flock to see this the minute it comes out? People will see this, but the gross will be spread out through the Christmas season.....

Clutching at straws.