Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[MovieMan89]

fishnets, the REASON those films went up on Saturday was because they opened on a Wednesday. That is not the case here.

While that's true it doesn't change the fact that this movie should still go up significantly on Saturday minus midnights and I'm pretty sure that's what fish is saying. No one actually expects an increase on Saturday with midnights included.

[fishstick]

Yes I know that, but that won't have a significant impact on BO and if this underperforms it certainly shouldn't be used as the excuse like it was with TDKR for some people here.

Yeah, TDKR was a totally different situation. Joker-obsessed loon targetted TDKR audience. This pretty much sent the message that TDKR, not all movies, is dangerous loon magnet. Of course, all movies felt it because when shit like that happens in one cinema people start feeling uneasy about any movie, let alone that one that attacts biggest crowds.The elementary school shooting cannot posisbly have such a wide-spread and long lasting effect on TH boxoffice.Not to mention that unless you are immediate family or friend of family struck by tragedy, you won`t miss Xmas routine because of what happened. Holiday erases those things from the mind quickly. Edited December 15, 2012 by fishnets

[A Marvel Fanboy]

It's a great number. Should break 120m for sure.

??

[Noctis]

While that's true it doesn't change the fact that this movie should still go up significantly on Saturday minus midnights and I'm pretty sure that's what fish is saying. No one actually expects an increase on Saturday with midnights included.

fishnets thinks it will increase WITH midnights. I know that for a fact. And yes, it will definitely increase without midnights.

Let's say its Friday is $37 ($24m without midnights - damn). Let's give it a VERY nice bump which I seriously doubt will happen (+30%).

Fri: $37m

Sat: $31.2m (really doubt it will increase that much, but for the film's sake, let's say it does)

Sun: $23m

$91.2m.

$100m is dead and gone.

Edited December 15, 2012 by Noctis

[fishstick]

While that's true it doesn't change the fact that this movie should still go up significantly on Saturday minus midnights and I'm pretty sure that's what fish is saying. No one actually expects an increase on Saturday with midnights included.

Yep, that`s what I`m saying. I always subtract midnights from friday anyway especially since most midnights these days are inflated by 10pm which is really Thurday, not Friday.

[MovieMan89]

Anyways RTH has already told us $38-40 is looking like the range and we all know he's more reliable than anyone else. So no way only $85m weekend with that OD.

[The Futurist]

Hum, a few weeks ago, Shawn was reporting 130m OW from insider source trackings ...Hum ...

[rb02]

Anyways RTH has already told us $38-40 is looking like the range and we all know he's more reliable than anyone else. So no way only $85m weekend with that OD.

The anti-period/anti-fantasy trolls will soon be eating crow.

[Poseidon]

But they still went up from friday even with Wednesday opening.

Yeah, and so did Harry Potter 5 and Harry Potter 6, and that was in mid-summer.

[MovieMan89]

IF $38m OD this is how it should play out:Fri: 38mSat: 33m (similar Sat increase minus midnights as the LOTR films)Sun: 25m (significantly worse Sunday drop than the LOTR films, but Sundays aren't as strong these days as back then)$96m for the weekend, or near 100m like I said. If it has a $40m OD 100m will happen.

[fishstick]

Anyways RTH has already told us $38-40 is looking like the range and we all know he's more reliable than anyone else. So no way only $85m weekend with that OD.

Only $82-85 mio estimate takes Aurora scenario. We know this won`t be Aurora but they don`t want to look like underperformers if the movie gets hit by it somewhat.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I have the feeling THE HOBBIT: THE DESOLATION OF SMAUG will be the biggest in the series.

Nah, more like it will pull a AOTC.

[#ED]

Small chance of 100M. It all falls on tomorrow's gross. I will shit my pants if it makes 40M tomorrow.

[Poseidon]

While that's true it doesn't change the fact that this movie should still go up significantly on Saturday minus midnights and I'm pretty sure that's what fish is saying. No one actually expects an increase on Saturday with midnights included.

You said it would make 100m with a 35m friday, how would that work without a saturday increase?

[lab276]

Nah, more like it will pull a AOTC.

Unfortunately, I must agree.

[JackO]

Hum, a few weeks ago, Shawn was reporting 130m OW from insider source trackings ...Hum ...

To be fair to him, numbers were all over the place

[Elessar]

Maybe it pulls a Shrek 2.

[lab276]

I'd put it between Tron Legacy and Sherlock 2 for legs, meaning $320-390m, with $82m OW.

[The Futurist]

Maybe it pulls a Shrek 2.

Why not ?After all, TH is a 2h49 teaser-trailer for Smaug that is hidden from us the entire movie.Smaug could/will have the holy shit dude ! -that dragon is so fucking cool and badass !- have you seen TH 2 ? factor TH sorely lacks. Edited December 15, 2012 by The Futurist

[riczhang]

To be fair to him, numbers were all over the place

Yeah. Nothing really matched up. Fandango was reporting only 76% of sales were Hobbit a few days ago, and tracking had it at 95, and it was just havoc. That being said, still disappointing. The evening numbers I think will end up in rth's range instead of the new lower number for THR.