Weekend Estimates Hobbit 36.7 pg 33

[Goffe]

And while 56% drop is business as usual for some other franchises it`s downright appalling for ME. The most LOTR movie dropped in its second weekend was ROTK`s 30%, the best hold was FOTR`s 18%.

LOTR movies opened in a wednesday and in a different weekend (exactly this weekend, which is much better), a sub 30% drop awalys was out of reach for Hobbit

[Goffe]

And while 56% drop is business as usual for some other franchises it`s downright appalling for ME. The most LOTR movie dropped in its second weekend was ROTK`s 30%, the best hold was FOTR`s 18%.

LOTR movies opened in a wednesday and in a different weekend (exactly this weekend, which is much better), a sub 30% drop awalys was out of reach for Hobbit

[fishstick]

LOTR movies opened in a wednesday and in a different weekend (exactly this weekend, which is much better), a sub 30% drop awalys was out of reach for Hobbit

It`s following KK trajectory and that one opened on Wednesday too and dropped 57% next week.

[telcontar]

The HOBBIT should've just been 1 movie 2.5 to 3 hours in length wrapping the whole damn thing up in 1 movie and moviegoers would've been much happier with this than this 3 movie cash grab$$$$$$.. I can't imagine the Dragon Smaug is going to look any better than DRAGONSLAYER from back in the 80's which is as good as it gets..

How on earth would they have fitted 20+ main characters and two climaxes into a single 2.5 hour movie?

[fishstick]

How on earth would they have fitted 20+ main characters and two climaxes into a single 2.5 hour movie?

There`s no such thing as 2 climaxes. It`s always one. Smaug downing is the climax of the book. Everything else that comes afterwards is just prolonging the story past the point to which the whole thing built up. If they think that Smaug is what Helm`s Deep was to TTT and Bo5A is what Pelennor Fields was to ROTK they are in for a rude awakening.TH is the story primarily known and cherished for that dragon. Not for the conflict at the end of the book. Dragon. he is what makes it memorable. Unlike LOTR that wasn`t beloved for just one thing.

[IndustriousAngel]

Concerning Hobbit vs LotR:I wouldn't dare judge that before we have not seen the whole product. Sure, LotR is more epic, more tragic, plus there are some women involved, but "The Hobbit" can be made into a very attractive story too I think, on a lighter tone. atm we only have the introduction, same as LotR with "Fellowship". The big difference imho between H1 and LotR1 is the sightseeing-factor - that's why for many viewers "Fellowship" is still the most beloved of the 3 parts. We get The Shire, Bree, Weathertop, Rivendell, the Caradhras Pass, Moria!!!, Lórien and the Argonath. That's a lot of sightseeing factor, much more than in the following 2 parts. In H1, we have: The Shire - but less than in Fellowship - , a bit of landscape, Rivendell (already known from Fellowship) and Goblin Town, plus a glimpse of Dol Guldur. So, while both H1 and LotR1 can't stand on their own storywise, H1 has the additional disadvantage of a much reduced Middle-Earth sightseeing factor. But in the end we will have to wait until "The Hobbit" is complete to see if it works or not.

[fishstick]

Concerning Hobbit vs LotR:I wouldn't dare judge that before we have not seen the whole product. Sure, LotR is more epic, more tragic, plus there are some women involved, but "The Hobbit" can be made into a very attractive story too I think, on a lighter tone. atm we only have the introduction, same as LotR with "Fellowship". The big difference imho between H1 and LotR1 is the sightseeing-factor - that's why for many viewers "Fellowship" is still the most beloved of the 3 parts. We get The Shire, Bree, Weathertop, Rivendell, the Caradhras Pass, Moria!!!, Lórien and the Argonath. That's a lot of sightseeing factor, much more than in the following 2 parts. In H1, we have: The Shire - but less than in Fellowship - , a bit of landscape, Rivendell (already known from Fellowship) and Goblin Town, plus a glimpse of Dol Guldur. So, while both H1 and LotR1 can't stand on their own storywise, H1 has the additional disadvantage of a much reduced Middle-Earth sightseeing factor. But in the end we will have to wait until "The Hobbit" is complete to see if it works or not.

I don`t have to see TH to tell you what the main problem here is - it isn`t a new thing. When LOTR came out there was nothing like it. Now there is. Simple. We`ve seem some really freakin awesome dragons and freakin awesome epic battles and that all isn`t new and Wow anymore like it was 10 years ago when there wasn`t oversaturation with epic glitz and glam. We have the dragon. And we have the Hulk. You people talk about Smaug as if nobody has ever seen a dragon in movies. reality check. There`s bunch of them on GoT which more and more people now consider the ultimate fantasy. Let me tell you this. I haven`t seen a single person on a commuter read TH. People were reading LOTR back in time, they were reading HP, twilight, THG (we knew THG would open big, though not as big, based on book-reader spotting) and they are reading GoT. I haven`t spotted a TH reader any time before the movie came out nor after. So interest just isn`t there because it`s a "been there done that" affair. Dol Guldur, Bot5A big deal. Pelennor and Helm`s Deep were big deal because there wa snothing like it but now that GoT has a more realistic and brutal battles the whimsical ones may not cut it with fantasy crowd craving something grittier. Edited December 24, 2012 by fishnets

[telcontar]

There`s no such thing as 2 climaxes. It`s always one. Smaug downing is the climax of the book. Everything else that comes afterwards is just prolonging the story past the point to which the whole thing built up. If they think that Smaug is what Helm`s Deep was to TTT and Bo5A is what Pelennor Fields was to ROTK they are in for a rude awakening.

Um, where did that comparison even come from? Those two events are nothing like Helm's Deep and Pelennor Fields. And the Battle of 5 Armies isn't just a random skirmish, quite a lot of plot lines are going to get resolved during that event.

[YoursTruly]

That's a good point. I consider GoT a superior product to anything in the Jackson oeuvre, but I prefer "low" fantasy to "high" fantasy. Some people feel differently.

[fishstick]

Um, where did that comparison even come from? Those two events are nothing like Helm's Deep and Pelennor Fields. And the Battle of 5 Armies isn't just a random skirmish, quite a lot of plot lines are going to get resolved during that event.

Comparison came from how the movies are going to be structured. Smaug is the centerpiece of DoS (and the book) and Bot5A is a centerpiece of TABA. I`m just saying that Smaug is really where the book (and movies) peak, not Bot5A no matter how hard they try to make it top Pelennor Fields with Tauriel and Kili romantic shit, Sauron`s arrival,etc.

That's a good point. I consider GoT a superior product to anything in the Jackson oeuvre, but I prefer "low" fantasy to "high" fantasy. Some people feel differently.

And the fact that there`s a choice between "low" and "high" as opposed to just having high one with no other alternative means a lot for marketplace and fandom loyalty or lack thereof. Sometimes you watch something from your genre that isn`t quite what you want but is the closest to it at the given moment. Then when you get what you really want you don`t care to go back to the next best thing when you have the best one. Why settle for burger when you have a steak,no? Edited December 24, 2012 by fishnets

[Fake]

Will we get actuals today?

[CJohn]

We usually don't get actuals until the end of the holidays from most studios.

[Fake]

Revised Sunday estimates at least?

[baumer]

Yea, I think we'll get them today.

[#ED]

Hopefully we get them today for the Winter games. Hopefully we get questions early too!

[baumer]

The interesting thing about 2007 and IAL dropping 57% is that it did so because it was up against National treausre 2, which made 44 mill in it's first weekend. The Hobbit was up against nothing substantial and still fell 57%.http://www.boxofficeguru.com/122407.htm

[keysersoze123]

The interesting thing about 2007 and IAL dropping 57% is that it did so because it was up against National treausre 2, which made 44 mill in it's first weekend. The Hobbit was up against nothing substantial and still fell 57%.http://www.boxoffice....com/122407.htm

you are forgetting that hobbit had 13M midnights while IAL midnights were not significant. So its inevitable it will have a bad drop considering midnights were a big chunk of OW.

[baumer]

you are forgetting that hobbit had 13M midnights while IAL midnights were not significant. So its inevitable it will have a bad drop considering midnights were a big chunk of OW.

I'm not forgetting that at all. Even taking out the midnights it fell 50%. And again, without a juggernaut to open against it.

[Warhorse]

I wanted to go see it this past weekend, but it's been way too hectic. I might finally go see it a second time, maybe in that 48f, this Wednesday. Yesterday, I spent 2 hours in line, just so the 2 cousin kids can get photos with Santa at the mall.

[BenedictL11]

Revised Sunday estimates at least?

Updated Weekend Estimates

The Hobbit -- $36,940,000

Weekend Actuals

Amour -- $68,266 / $97,817

http://www.boxoffice.com/daily_analyses/2012-12-the-hobbit-falls-sharply-but-remains-1-with-ease