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Shawn Robbins

Weekend Numbers (OZ: 80 mill)

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Well considering that it cost 325m to make and market, they're losing money on the film well into DVD/Blu-Ray sales and merchandising.

325 to make and market? I definitely thought it was lower than that.
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325 to make and market? I definitely thought it was lower than that.

 

Definitely higher than that, actually.  Movies like this cost at least $150M for P&A.  And the budget is at least $200M so...you know.  They throw in the "the numbers you read are always understated" tax, it's probably over $400M.

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Three reasons: 1) They're making Planes, and multiple sequels.  Those are Cars spinoffs.  They exist for exactly the reason you're talking about.2) Cars is viewed now almost as an evergreen merchandise product.  That means, quite frankly, to some degree those products sell whether a movie exists or not.  I heard someone compare Cars not to other movies, but to Hot Wheels.  It sells itself.3) They probably will make a Cars 3, to be honest. And let me set everyone straight...they're not making Oz movies for merchandise dollars.  That side of Oz isn't that big.

Planes is a knock off not a spin off, there's a difference.and what makes you think there will be a Cars 3?
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Oz is anything but a flop.  A flop is Jack the Giant Killer. Opening to 80 mill and making 150 mill WW first weekend is really quite amazing.  I think we need to redefine out definition of a flop here.  This is guaranteed to hit 200 mill and possibly 250.  Not even close to a flop.

Exactly. It's doing exactly what most people predicted domestically and even exceeding expectations in some places, and the IM of the opening weekend means strong family legs are certainly a possibility. 

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I think another thing regarding an OZ sequel is whether Disney would want to spend another three years making a movie that in the end might only turn a small profit (or even make a loss). Just doesn't seem worth the time or the risk.

With Marvel they now have the cash to do whatever the hell they want. I could see them making a sequel.
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Planes is a knock off not a spin off, there's a difference.and what makes you think there will be a Cars 3?

 

There is a difference, and this is definitely a spinoff.  We're talking about merchandise, and the impact of films, and I can tell you Disney is looking at Planes in the way I'm talking about.

 

As for me thinking a Cars 3 would happen...dunno, just seems like it would since Lasseter likes it so much and an excuse to push the merch gravy train makes it a reasonable bet.

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The majority of movies a turn a profit before they leave theatres. We really have no clue regarding Hollywood finances.

 

This is not true.  The majority of films do not turn a profit before they leave theaters.  I'm not even sure you can say the majority of films even turn a profit period.

 

And I actually do have a pretty good handle on Hollywood finances.

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So Peter Jackson, Michael Bay and soon Sam Raimi will be the only directors with four $200M+ grossing movies?

 

As ShawnMR said, Nolan.  And Lucas.  And Spielberg.  And Chris Columbus.  And, well, David Yates.

Edited by kowhite
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I bet that's a short list.The 2x budget/marketing rule is used because for whatever reason it accurately predicts which movies get sequels better than any other basic litmus test.

 

Except it doesn't, films that don't do this get sequels all the time, like Captain America, Star Trek, Batman Begins, X-Men: First Class, Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs, Fast 2 and 3, and countless others. On the other hand Alice which easily did this isn't getting a sequel.

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