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Shawn Robbins

Weekend Numbers (OZ: 80 mill)

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Edit: I think Paramount probably lost a decent chunk of money with ST09 theatrically (not nearly a hundred million, of course).

 

Theatrically it probably lost a little money (386m WW, 150m budget, unknown marketing costs but likely 50m+) but that was because of overseas audiences really not being into the Trek brand prior to 2009. Paramount was definitely willing to take a minor up-front theatrical loss (easily made up by DVD/Blu-Ray and other fronts quickly) in order to sow the seeds for making Star Trek marketable overseas in the future.

 

WIth Oz though it seems Disney plain overestimated overseas appeal and gave too much money to production, etc accordingly.

Edited by 4815162342
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Simple cost benefit analysis says it makes more sense in multi-billion dollar money makers like Star Wars, PTOC, Pixar, and Marvel than rasky and marginally profitable Oz movies.How many James Franco Oz mugs do you think they can sell anyway?

And those movies are in the pipeline, but Disney still wants more in their library. And maybe not so much Franco cups, but China Girl, Glinda, and Finley. And the possible theme park attractions.
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I was looking for a term for different movie series.Is there a more fitting one to include movies like Inception and ET?

 

I don't know... 250M+ movies without taking multiple movies (meaning you can take only 1 of them) in the same franchise into a consideration?

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It's gonna lose between 50-100M. You say if this is enough for a sequel^^

 

We don't know this, the whole 2X the budget WW isn't real, it's just something people say because we don't really know how the finances work. And even with this "rule" the goalposts have apparently moved, it used to be 2X the production budget without marketing, apparently now people have lumped that in as well to make it even harder to be profitable.

 

Under this new "rule" all kinds of films which received sequels would count a money losers.

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I heard that the budgets for Disney movies usually include these movie-based theme park or even video games/toys investments. Is it that case ? Since that could explain why Disney trend to have bigger budgets for their movies compared with other studios.

No, I don't think that's the case. Budgets are for the movie production only.
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We don't know this, the whole 2X the budget WW isn't real, it's just something people say because we don't really know how the finances work. And even with this "rule" the goalposts have apparently moved, it used to be 2X the production budget without marketing, apparently now people have lumped that in as well to make it even harder to be profitable.

 

Under this new "rule" all kinds of films which received sequels would count a money losers.

 

Even if we don't know how it works, how do you know for sure that this movie will turn out to be profitable? I doubt that... we thought OOTP was profitable until some time back when it was revealed that even though it make nearly 900M WW it still lost money. I don't think Disney is that clever to make things so they can profit on every single movie. They gotta lose sometime, and this honestly looks like a loss to me.

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I don't know... 250M+ movies without taking multiple movies (meaning you can take only 1 of them) in the same franchise into a consideration?

It's much easier to milk the same popular franchise over and over than build multiple franchises beyond 250+ m.Which is why only 4 or 5 directors have achieved the latter.
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It's much easier to milk the same popular franchise over and over than build multiple franchises beyond 250+ m.Which is why only 4 or 5 directors have achieved the latter.

 

Inception and Titanic aren't franchises, so you can remove both Nolan and Cameron from that list.

Franchises are series of movies like Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, The Dark knight Trilogy, The upcoming Hobbit Trilogy, Twilight and other movies like that.

 

Not stand alone movie.

Edited by ChFloppit
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Even if we don't know how it works, how do you know for sure that this movie will turn out to be profitable? I doubt that... we thought OOTP was profitable until some time back when it was revealed that even though it make nearly 900M WW it still lost money. I don't think Disney is that clever to make things so they can profit on every single movie. They gotta lose sometime, and this honestly looks like a loss to me.

 

OOTP did make money. And if you count it in a way in which OOTP lost money, than very few films ever make money, but since they keep being made, we know this isn't true.

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And those movies are in the pipeline, but Disney still wants more in their library. And maybe not so much Franco cups, but China Girl, Glinda, and Finley. And the possible theme park attractions.

Why would Disney invest hundreds of millions for a mediocre Oz franchise when that money would be better spent looking for the next POTC or Toy Story?The home runs and grand slams are where the real money is. Not the base hits.It's a better investment to find the next billion dollar franchise.
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Even if we don't know how it works, how do you know for sure that this movie will turn out to be profitable? I doubt that... we thought OOTP was profitable until some time back when it was revealed that even though it make nearly 900M WW it still lost money. I don't think Disney is that clever to make things so they can profit on every single movie. They gotta lose sometime, and this honestly looks like a loss to me.

Creative accounting is designed to show EVERYTHING loses money, so they don't have to pay out net points to actors, directors, etc. That doesn't reflect the real numbers at all.
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  • Founder / Operator

It's far from an exact science, but the general rule of thumb seems to now be that worldwide grosses should account for roughly 1.5 to 1.75 times a movie's combined budget (production + marketing) to be considered breaking even or close to profitable. That varies a lot, and films with merchandise to sell can obviously get away with lower profit margins at the box office.

 

As far as the "old rule" goes, it was 2x the budget because marketing wasn't being factored in. But... Hollywood can't get away from the fact that they spend money to sell the movies they make, so they have to have a return on that too.

Edited by ShawnMR
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Inception and Titanic aren't franchises, so you can remove both Nolan and Cameron from that list.Franchises are series of movies like Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, The Dark knight Trilogy, The upcoming Hobbit Trilogy, Twilight and other movies like that. Not stand alone movie.

Yeah I was pointing out directors who made 250+ hit movies that weren't in the same series which I feel is an impressive achievement.I just used the term franchise because I wasn't sure how else to word it.
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OOTP did make money. And if you count it in a way in which OOTP lost money, than very few films ever make money, but since they keep being made, we know this isn't true.

OOTP is the perfect example of something that can have a lower profit ratio in theaters and still be acceptable. Those movies, like others, are partly just big advertisements for all of the ancillary revenue the studio gets in the post-theatrical stream. Even if they don't get their profit upfront after that the theatrical run, they still end up making a lot more money than most off that one movie in the grand scheme of things.

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We don't know this, the whole 2X the budget WW isn't real, it's just something people say because we don't really know how the finances work. And even with this "rule" the goalposts have apparently moved, it used to be 2X the production budget without marketing, apparently now people have lumped that in as well to make it even harder to be profitable. Under this new "rule" all kinds of films which received sequels would count a money losers.

I bet that's a short list.The 2x budget/marketing rule is used because for whatever reason it accurately predicts which movies get sequels better than any other basic litmus test.
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