Weekend Discussion: IM3 @ 175.3m wknd est

[Walt Disney]

Spiderman not an event movie. I never thought the time would come.

 

Neither did Sony. But, they saw the hand writing on the wall with Ghost Rider, and gave the film rights back to Marvel earlier than they had to.

[spizzer]

With 70M

 

Following IM2

 

15.6M 9PM/Thursday

54.4M Friday

56.9M Saturday (+4.7%)

38.7M Sunday (-32.0%)

 

165.6M OW 

150.0M OW minus Mids/Thurs. (2.76 IM)

 

Following TA

 

15.6M 9PM/Thursday

54.4M Friday

60.9M Saturday (+12.0%)

49.9M Sunday (-18%)

 

180.9M OW

165.3M OW minus Mid/Thurs. (3.04 IM)

 

The Marvel Adjusted Internal Multiplier is insanely consistent.

 

IM1 - 3.12

IM2 - 2.76

TA - 3.04

SM1 - 3.33

Thor - 2.86

CA - 2.81

XM3 - 2.47

XM4 - 2.72

XMFC - 2.87

 

TA, XMen 3, Spider Man and Iron Man are the standouts, everything else is within two tenths

Edited May 4, 2013 by spizzer

[MovieMan89]

Captain America: The Winter Soldier and Guardians of the Galaxy should be fun to track. Guardians will be tough to predict. But we're all just going to see those movies and say," that was great, I can't wait to see how this relates to TA2 in 2015." And we'll be back talking about 2015.

 

And Captain America isn't even summer anyways. All I'm really looking forward to next summer are Dawn of The Planet of the Apes, Days of Future Past, and Dragon 2. Would like to look forward to JP4 but 2 and 3 burned me too much.

[redfirebird2008]

Spizzer, I think TA's IM is actually 3.03, not 2.84.

 

It made $188.7m for the weekend after midnight and it made $62.1m for the opening day after midnight. So 188.7/62.1 would be 3.03 IM.

[spizzer]

The Marvel Adjusted Internal Multiplier is insanely consistent.

 

IM1 - 3.12

IM2 - 2.76

TA - 3.04

SM1 - 3.33

Thor - 2.86

CA - 2.81

XM3 - 2.47

XM4 - 2.72

XMFC - 2.87

 

TA, XMen 3, Spider Man and Iron Man are the standouts, everything else is within two tenths

 

 

 

With 70M

 

Following IM2

 

15.6M 9PM/Thursday

54.4M Friday

56.9M Saturday (+4.7%)

38.7M Sunday (-32.0%)

 

165.6M OW 

150.0M OW minus Mids/Thurs. (2.76 IM)

 

Following TA

 

15.6M 9PM/Thursday

54.4M Friday

60.9M Saturday (+12.0%)

49.9M Sunday (-18%)

 

180.9M OW

165.3M OW minus Mid/Thurs. (3.04 IM)

 

Just want to point this out.  This will more likely than not come out on the high side, just due to the the Thursday previews, which should amplify the deflation effect on Friday business, which, in turn, will yield a greater Fri->Sat jump.  Not as high as TA, but likely higher than any within the expected range, so about a ~2.9ish Adjusted IM.

Edited May 4, 2013 by spizzer

[spizzer]

Spizzer, I think TA's IM is actually 3.03, not 2.84.

 

It made $188.7m for the weekend after midnight and it made $62.1m for the opening day after midnight. So 188.7/62.1 would be 3.03 IM.

 

Correct, I've yet to make adjustments to my spreadsheet.

[redfirebird2008]

Correct, I've yet to make adjustments to my spreadsheet.

 

Where did you get the 2.84 from? lol

[spizzer]

Where did you get the 2.84 from? lol

 

When I was doing my projections for Avengers last May, I had come up with a dollar weighted average of every other Marvel film, and I had left it as that figure.

[ZattMurdock]

Spiderman not an event movie. I never thought the time would come.

TASM2 is looking like the most exciting release next year to me, and I feel that all the reports about the filming shows how much people do care about Spidey. I feel that TASM2 has everything to become Spidey's Dark Knight, and the first Spider-Man film to break $1B.Back to DC tho, what truly pisses me off is that Warner CLEARLY doesn't know what the hell to do with the DC catalogue. Marvel never stopped since Iron Man, even releasing TIH in the same year and announcing Cap and Thor soon after. While Warner, even though MoS does look good to me, they don't have anything announced after that. It pisses me off because from where I'm standing, even Fox is getting to invest in their Marvel properties, while Warner does... nothing. Announcing Justice League if MoS is a hit is a huge mistake IMO, and waiting to see how MoS goes instead of clearly take notice that besides TASM2, Cap 2, GotG, DoFP and the FF reboot, 2014 would be an awesome year for Warner to do... something. Anything. It's been almost one year since I've commented on this subject and Warner still haven't get their shit together. It truly pisses me off. We'll have TWO working Marvel Cinematic Universes before Warner realizing the gold mine they are sitting on.

[MovieMan89]

I feel that TASM2 has everything to become Spidey's Dark Knight, and the first Spider-Man film to break $1B.

 

 

Don't bet on it.

[kitik]

Yeah summer 2014 is looking pretty dismal compared to this year's and especially 2015's. Hell, even the shudder inducing summer 2011 might be better. I still can't get over TASM2 being the big "event summer opener."

 

 

 

 

TASM2 should go up slightly from TASM, but it still won't be at the original Spidey trilogy level.

 

 

But beyond that, I repeat my question: what is there to get excited about?

 

-TF4 is bound to drop from the previous one.

-DOFP looks cool, but the past 2 X-Men movies have been down significantly from Last Stand.

-F&F7 has a tough release date, 2 weeks after TF4, which will attract the exact same "young dudes who like fast cars" demographic.

-GOTG will be interesting to track, just because its such an unknown, but the release date alone should tell you to expect this to come in under Thor and Cap numbers.

-TASM2 will get to a very predictable $250-300 finish. Good but nothing to get super worked up about.

-JP4 will be cool, but will auddiences still react with awe at the sight of a CGI dinosaur?

-Godzilla? Maybe. There's a good chance it'll look a thousand times better than the 1998 version.

-Apes? Doubtful. I just can't see the numbers going super high on it.

-Jupiter Ascending? Maybe. But just look at the Wachowski's recent track record.

[redfirebird2008]

 I feel that TASM2 has everything to become Spidey's Dark Knight

 

 

[Cochofles]

Cause WONDER WOMAN sucks iJack and if NBC can't get the job done with a Pilot that was cancelled before it even aired, then how on earth can this character support a big screen movie???

So predictably fanboyish. Do you also hate real women, or just the fictional ones? I bet you are praying for TA2 to drop their Scarlet Witch plans and ditch the Widow altogether.

[MovieMan89]

TASM2 should go up slightly from TASM, but it still won't be at the original Spidey trilogy level.

 

 

But beyond that, I repeat my question: what is there to get excited about?

 

-TF4 is bound to drop from the previous one.

-DOFP looks cool, but the past 2 X-Men movies have been down significantly from Last Stand.

-F&F7 has a tough release date, 2 weeks after TF4, which will attract the exact same "young dudes who like fast cars" demographic.

-GOTG will be interesting to track, just because its such an unknown, but the release date alone should tell you to expect this to come in under Thor and Cap numbers.

-TASM2 will get to a very predictable $250-300 finish. Good but nothing to get super worked up about.

-JP4 will be cool, but will auddiences still react with awe at the sight of a CGI dinosaur?

-Godzilla? Maybe. There's a good chance it'll look a thousand times better than the 1998 version.

-Apes? Doubtful. I just can't see the numbers going super high on it.

-Jupiter Ascending? Maybe. But just look at the Wachowski's recent track record.

 

Dragon 2 could be the star of next summer. Only if it's good though to capitalize on the extreme goodwill from the first.

[The Stingray]

Don't bet on it.

He probably will, and he'll probably run when it doesn't make it.

[kayumanggi]

Yeah summer 2014 is looking pretty dismal compared to this year's and especially 2015's. Hell, even the shudder inducing summer 2011 might be better. I still can't get over TASM2 being the big "event summer opener."

 

 

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MAY

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

02-04

[*]The Amazing Spider-Man ll

09-11

[*]Tyler Perry's Single Mom's Club

16-18

[*]Godzilla

23-25

[*]Dawn Of The Planet Of The Apes

[*]Blended

30-01

[*]The Good Dinosaur

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JUNE

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

06-08

[*]Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles

[*]21 Jump Street ll

13-15

[*]Jurassic Park lV

20-22

[*]How To Train Your Dragon ll

[*]Think Like A Man Too

27-29

[*]Transformers lV

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JULY

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

04-07

[*]Maleficent

[*]Sex Tape

[*]Tammy

11-14

[*]Fast And Furious Vll

18-21

[*]X-Men: Days Of Future Past

25-28

[*]Hercules

[*]Jupiter Ascending

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

AUGUST

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

01-03

[*]Guardians Of The Galaxy

08-10

[*]Dracula

15-17

 

22-24

 

29-31

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[Mattrek]

LOL yep. But it's always entertaining.

Agreed

[kitik]

Dragon 2 could be the star of next summer. Only if it's good though to capitalize on the extreme goodwill from the first.

 

I hit post before remembering to mention that I think both Dragon 2 and 21 Jump Street 2 will both be hits, but once again, both will likely be fairly predictable and not quite super-gargantuan.

[MovieMan89]

Yeah kayumanggi, I know the schedule for next summer. Nothing very exciting. Aside from Apes, Xmen, and Dragon all those sequels are pretty unwanted and bound to drop. JP4 being a wild card still. And not much in the way of potential original breakouts. Looks very summer 2011, but with nothing on the level of even DH2 or TF3.

Edited May 4, 2013 by IronMan89

[Mattrek]

Pattern is similar but the posters change. Role reversals during MoS release?

Most likely. I know I will be rooting for MOS to explode and go past IM3, but I'll try to be a little realistic. I still say 300m is locked for it though.