Weekend Discussion: IM3 @ 175.3m wknd est

[kitik]

Wow, next year really sucks by the looks of it.

 

I'm really hoping that Godzilla is awesome.

 

And there's a distinct possiblity that Jupiter Ascending will be a great movie, but not do huge business at the box office. (Don't know if that type of scenario works for you or not.)

 

But yeah, be prepared to turn your brain off in June and July when Turtles, JP, TF, and F&F7 come around.

 

TF4 will have some cool explosions though.

[ZattMurdock]

Most likely. I know I will be rooting for MOS to explode and go past IM3, but I'll try to be a little realistic. I still say 300m is locked for it though.

As I've said, if MoS gets anything close to what TASM did last summer, it'll be an astounding success. Than again, there are a LOT of things that worry me about the release of MoS that I don't think most of you are taking notice. Unlike TASM, TDKR, IM3 and TA, MoS seems to be following the same kind of international release pattern than Green Lantern did back then.The exciting thing about having release dates close to each other is that USA's hype feeds from the international hype and vice versa. With MoS, I've seen that a lot of countries will have the release date postponed for more than a month. Brazil and most of the South America and other territories will get MoS in theaters more than a month AFTER you people in America. I don't understand the rationale for that since that as long as I've been tracking BO's numbers for superhero movies, this always ended up in disaster. With that said, I hope that MoS gets to make between $200m-$300m+ DOM and have enough WOM to keep the audiences waiting for the proper release date. At times of online piracy, it seems to me that once again Warner is shooting themselves on the foot.

[MovieMan89]

2011's summer wasn't shudder inducing, it was still better than 2010's and 2012's.

 

Well it didn't seem like it. I guess there were just so many sequels that year they did all add up to a decent gross despite mostly being lackluster to track individually. And we did at least have TF3/DH2. 2014 doesn't have one movie like that.

[ecstasy]

When I dozed off for a bit people were sure it was going to be around 63-65. Now it's 70. Now I'm going to sleep for real; maybe it'll be even higher when I wake up. 

 

That's what happened to me with the Avengers. Went to sleep it was 70m and woke up to 80m. My mind was blown.

 

I don't think it's gonna happen with IM3 but who knows.

[kitik]

TASM2 will do more than Thor and Cap sequels.

 

 

 

and thats an achievement ??

 

 

Keep in mind here that TTDW will have a lot more room to grow thanks to the Avengers effect than IM3 did. Don't underestimate it.

[redfirebird2008]

I think Thor 2 might benefit more than any other Marvel property from the Avengers Effect. I didn't give a flying fuck about the character until seeing TA, and I'm sure I'm not alone. TA not only showcased Thor, but his main enemy was also showcased in TA as well. It has a lot more room to grow than Iron Man, especially in the U.S. market.

[kitik]

Assuming 70m, I'm thinking it hits high 50s today with a small increase (around 6-7%) from Friday business minus previews. This is going to be such a tight race for #2 opening of all time, it seems.

 

 

Awesome that #2 OW is even on the table.

[FTF]

That's what happened to me with the Avengers. Went to sleep it was 70m and woke up to 80m. My mind was blown.I don't think it's gonna happen with IM3 but who knows.

We've already had that moment though...thought it was $60m and now it's $70m.

[The Stingray]

I'm really hoping that Godzilla is awesome. Forgot about that one.

 

And there's a distinct possiblity that Jupiter Ascending will be a great movie, but not do huge business at the box office. (Don't know if that type of scenario works for you or not.) Wow. You must really think low of me. Quality over money, always!

 

But yeah, be prepared to turn your brain off in June and July when Turtles, JP, TF, and F&F7 come around.

 

TF4 will have some cool explosions though.

[Mattrek]

Don't bet on it.

[Fake]

70m...... very awesome!! Have a feeling it will end up in 70.5-71.0m range.Also I expect a bigger Saturday increase than many are expecting..... the run could be slightly similar to Avengers. For example, this, though optimistic, is certainly possible:Mids: 15.6MFriday; 55MSaturday: 61MSunday: 48MWeekend: ~180M

[ecstasy]

We've already had that moment though...thought it was $60m and now it's $70m.

 

Yeah but I'm just talking about going to sleep and waking up to a bigger number. A much bigger number.  Not saying this will be the case for IM3. Avengers numbers started really low. Like in the 60m range. Everybody was freaking out until RTH stepped in said "no" Nikki has it wrong, it's gonna be at least 70m. Or something like that. I don't remember exactly. I just remember going to sleep and waking up and it was 80m.

[ecstasy]

Well RTH said 70m +/-. Could be 68m or 71m, lol.

[kitik]

 

 

 Wow. You must really think low of me. Quality over money, always!

 

 

 

 

No, not at all. It's just that the whole question was about what movies will be exciting to follow at the box office next summer.

 

And regarding the list in my post, there's always the chance that JP4 will have a story that you don't need to turn your brain off for too.

[redfirebird2008]

Yeah but I'm just talking about going to sleep and waking up to a bigger number. A much bigger number.  Not saying this will be the case for IM3. Avengers numbers started really low. Like in the 60m range. Everybody was freaking out until RTH stepped in said "no" Nikki has it wrong, it's gonna be at least 70m. Or something like that. I don't remember exactly. I just remember going to sleep and waking up and it was 80m.

 

RTH came along late at night and said TA would be around 80. I think his last TA update was given at a similar time to when he said IM3 would be 70ish. He sounded pretty confident tonight that it would be right around 70, either a little below or a little above that number.

[kayumanggi]

Wow, next year really sucks by the looks of it.

 

You will be surprised imo. A lot of films with breakout potential. I'll rather have a number of 250 M - 300 M movies than just one 600 M or 400 M film.

[kitik]

70m...... very awesome!! Have a feeling it will end up in 70.5-71.0m range.Also I expect a bigger Saturday increase than many are expecting..... the run could be slightly similar to Avengers. For example, this, though optimistic, is certainly possible:Mids: 15.6MFriday; 55MSaturday: 61MSunday: 48MWeekend: ~180M

 

 

IM3 should be heavily GA-driven, and also kid-driven, so yeah, there's every chance that it'll be able to put up a good Saturday number.

[ecstasy]

RTH came along late at night and said TA would be around 80. I think his last TA update was given at a similar time to when he said IM3 would be 70ish. He sounded pretty confident tonight that it would be right around 70, either a little below or a little above that number.

 

I must have been asleep by then. When I went to sleep he was still estimating around 70m. Nikki even revised her page after he posted. I believe that's what happened. I'm really too tired to look through the archives right now to make sure.

[kitik]

You will be surprised imo. A lot of films with breakout potential.

 

 

By the simple fact of people wanting to go to the movie theater, something is bound to break out. 

 

It's possible that JP and TF will benefit just because they're familiar and comfortable names for moviegoers.

[kayumanggi]

By the simple fact of people wanting to go to the movie theater, something is bound to break out. 

 

It's possible that JP and TF will benefit just because they're familiar and comfortable names for moviegoers.

 

I have high hopes for THE GOOD DINOSAUR and JUPITER ASCENDING.